After a week of trial and error, I'm moving towards a particular type of bet for these purposes. Our competition is based on Paddy Power prices and conditions and as they usually have the 'Super Sub' insurance, I look for the prices for 'To score or assist'. So far had success with Olise, Gordon (thanks to Rashford super sub) and Brahim Diaz. Prices ranged from 5/6 to 11/8. I'll be keeping an eye on them going forward with the rider that I only place the bet when the starting line-ups are in.
Been looking at this as an interest bet after Bet365 put the skids on backing Own Goals in the tournament (First round was getting between 9/1 - 12/1 per game, they have now cut the odds to generally 6/1 or 7/1). Landed a treble yesterday with Olmo, Canobbio and Salah which paid just over 4/1.
Almada gets the start for Argentina and looks a great bet. With Super sub he has either a goal or assist in his last 6 competitive international games (Ruling out friendlies) he has started. He is odds against to be involved.
Without knowing teams it is tough on the other matches. I've had a little go on Rabiot at 6/4. Got an assist in the 1st game and hopefully will get forward a bit more against Iraq. If want more of a banker then 1/3 or so for Olise should be safe. He had an XG + XA of 1.31 against Senegal (compared with the 0.78 of Mbappe).
Bit concerned the Norway v Senegal could be cagey with a draw suiting both teams. Considering Haaland has a goal or assist in his last 11 competitive international matches then perhaps we shouldn't ignore the obvious at around 4/6. I do have a sneaky feeling for Nusa who could get involved more against Senegal and find more space having got stuck wide on the wing against Iraq. He would have cashed in 5 of his last 9 competitive internationals and is around 6/4.
Final game is Jordan v Algeria where I like Chaibi who is a generous 13/8 with William Hill with the impact sub promotion. He is 6/13 in the competitive internationals he has started including 4 of last 6. He had 3 shots against Argentina despite their 3-0 defeat and with a goal difference to turn around then this should be the game they target. Amoura, who is set to start up front for Algeria has a good record of 8/15 in competitive games for his country including six of those where he has 2+. 10/11 with Bet365 is one for the acca.
Personally, Almada and Chaibi look the best bets at the prices. Think it is worth a 'banker' treble on Olise, Haaland and Amoura which pays 3.24/1 with Bet365.