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Cheltenham Festival Roll-Ups

ComplyOrDie said:
Really liked the debut performance of Diamond Street, backed him again at Newbury today @ 4/1.

Yet to decide if I am going to use him in a roll up, but certainly backing him today.
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Horrible passage for him!

Not beaten far in the end but found plenty of trouble, that's for sure.
 
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FA Cup quarter finals. West Ham/Leeds and Man City/Liverpool, draws at 90 minutes.

Going to get King Rasko Grey on board for the Champion Hurdle.
 
Panic Attack at Perth today for 83% price boost ?
No horses on my mind to boost this with but am adding Detroit Lions over 10.5 reg season wins for a double at a shade over 5/2…
 
NFL isn't for everyone but I'll be linking as many bets as I can with Detroit Lions over 10.5 regular season wins.
The draft is in the books and no-one is talking about them but they plugged big gaps on both lines which is exactly what they needed to do, they have pretty much everything needed in skill positions.
2026 schedule will be released in a few weeks but aside from the 6 div games they play:

Home:
Saints
Buccs
Giants
Pats
Jets
Titans

*One of these will be in Munch.

Road:
Falcons
Panthers
Cardinals
Bills
Dolphins

Crucially, for a dome team, that means they only have two possible outdoor/cold weather games (Buffalo and Carolina) and they could end up playing there in Sept/Oct before weather hits.

Also worth noting, of the six div games (Vikings, Packers, Bears), only Green Bay have cap space of over $20m so the Bears and Vikes will be doing some serious admin to get all the rookies signed, at some point both will be releasing solid vets, Lions could easily win the div and end up #1 seeds in the NFC with 13/14 wins but barring key injuries I expect the 10.5 to be easily surpassed....
 
Istabraq said:
NFL isn't for everyone but I'll be linking as many bets as I can with Detroit Lions over 10.5 regular season wins.
The draft is in the books and no-one is talking about them but they plugged big gaps on both lines which is exactly what they needed to do, they have pretty much everything needed in skill positions.
2026 schedule will be released in a few weeks but aside from the 6 div games they play:

Home:
Saints
Buccs
Giants
Pats
Jets
Titans

*One of these will be in Munch.

Road:
Falcons
Panthers
Cardinals
Bills
Dolphins

Crucially, for a dome team, that means they only have two possible outdoor/cold weather games (Buffalo and Carolina) and they could end up playing there in Sept/Oct before weather hits.

Also worth noting, of the six div games (Vikings, Packers, Bears), only Green Bay have cap space of over $20m so the Bears and Vikes will be doing some serious admin to get all the rookies signed, at some point both will be releasing solid vets, Lions could easily win the div and end up #1 seeds in the NFC with 13/14 wins but barring key injuries I expect the 10.5 to be easily surpassed....
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Detroit are 20/23 for Over 10.5 with B365. Is that a fair price ?
 
BuckingThe Trend said:
Detroit are 20/23 for Over 10.5 with B365. Is that a fair price ?
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There's some 10/11 out there but 20/23 is only 4% worse so yeah I'd say it's OK.
The reality is they should be winning 13 games with this schedule, of course that can all change if they suffer key injuries but they battled bog losses before and still won, for me they have pretty much everything needed...
 
Istabraq said:
There's some 10/11 out there but 20/23 is only 4% worse so yeah I'd say it's OK.
The reality is they should be winning 13 games with this schedule, of course that can all change if they suffer key injuries but they battled bog losses before and still won, for me they have pretty much everything needed...
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Thanks for the heads up and thanks for the reply. I am going to give it a go on a few to double my odds. I know sweet FA about NFL but I like your confidence. All risks totally accepted. Cheers.
 
Benjy23 said:
When does it likely end?
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Regular season ends first weekend in January, I'd like to think by the time you’re carving your Christmas turkey it’ll be a winner in the books….
 
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Hiddenvalley Lake at almost Evens looks to be buying money in the 6:38 Wexford today. Different class to these over hurdles. Yes, fell on sole chase run but that was 2 1/2 years ago, over 2 1/2 miles and on heavy ground when just coming out of novice hurdling. Much more experienced now and on better ground over a longer trip he should have a fantastic chance against horses rated low 120s and high 110s.
 
Runragged said:
Hiddenvalley Lake at almost Evens looks to be buying money in the 6:38 Wexford today. Different class to these over hurdles. Yes, fell on sole chase run but that was 2 1/2 years ago, over 2 1/2 miles and on heavy ground when just coming out of novice hurdling. Much more experienced now and on better ground over a longer trip he should have a fantastic chance against horses rated low 120s and high 110s.
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Oh so close. Good shout though as the price was value versus SP. Have to be brave tipping anything on here but don't give up....carry on. We love it.
 
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I'm probably the worst punter on here, but I've been using AI to help me get under the skin of flat racing and looking at trends etc. Was pretty handy at Chester so looking at it for York.

in the 4:05, Felicitas is much much stronger on trends than Legacy Link (who is also super boost cursed) so I'd have them fave. Have combined with a free bet with OPS for the Arkle myself
 
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I nearly backed Felicitas today but I can't get away from her being 18/1 for a class 5 on the all weather and 11/1 in a class 3 in her two starts to date... And now 11/4 in a group race.

That part just doesn't sit right. So I ended with no bet.

Interested to hear how the AI use goes in general though.
 
Benjy23 said:
I nearly backed Felicitas today but I can't get away from her being 18/1 for a class 5 on the all weather and 11/1 in a class 3 in her two starts to date... And now 11/4 in a group race.

That part just doesn't sit right. So I ended with no bet.

Interested to hear how the AI use goes in general though.
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so far - pretty decent on class racing, no hoper on the handicaps

make your own jokes
 
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On a line through Ribbon of the Sea, Legacy Link is 4 lengths clear of Felicitas (7.5 v 3)

I've backed LL so the boost is always a concern! But I'd rather back a horse with higher grade form than a low class winner
 
dang.

for context, my Claude trends today (i'll save you the full write ups):

RACE-BY-RACE VERDICTS SUMMARY​

RaceSelectionConfidenceNotes
2:20 JorvikWill Scarlet (win) / Sing Us A Song (EW)MediumStall 7 prime zone, won 1m4f LTO
2:55 ChurchillPocklington (EW)MediumC&D form, wind op, unplaced LTO
3:30 Minster G2Elmonjed (win)HighNear-perfect trend fit, York Listed winner
4:05 Musidora G3Felicitas (win)Medium-HighStall 1, unbeaten, won LTO, right SP
4:40 3yo HcpFirst Legion (EW)MediumNote: 4 of 16 runners unseen

DOUBLES & TREBLES​

Best doubles (based on confidence):
  1. Elmonjed + Felicitas — the strongest pair on trend scores, both in Group races where the profile is sharpe
  2. Elmonjed + First Legion — stepping down in grade for second leg adds value
  3. Felicitas + Will Scarlet — both have strong positional/form profiles
Luckily I had a saver on Legacy Link as the analysis wasn't as compelling (it's currently really negatively over estimating large gaps between runs which I'm trying to train out of it):

Analysis: Felicitas is the cleanest trend fit — stall 1 (16/23 from stalls 1–4), unbeaten in two starts, won LTO, had a previous run this season, likely to start at 5/2 (17/23 returned 5/1 or shorter). Ed Walker has a lightly-raced filly who won a 10-runner Sandown novice by 3 lengths on her seasonal debut. The doubt is quality of form — Sandown novice fields are not the Fillies' Mile. Legacy Link is the one that won't go away. Gosden (7 of the last 15 winners) is arguably the biggest single trend in the race, she was 4th in the Fillies' Mile G1, and she's the 6/5 favourite. The two negatives — stall 5 and no 2026 prep — are real but Gosden fresh horses in this race have a history. Sea The Storm (Haggas, stall 4, won LTO at Wetherby) hits the stall and form criteria cleanly; German G3 placed as a 2yo gives a class ceiling.


Franked form check: Legacy Link's 4th in the Fillies' Mile was behind Precise who may head for the Oaks — that form rates highly. Felicitas's Sandown win needs context — 11/1 shot, field of 10, novice company. The step to Group 3 is significant.

Having a lot of fun with it, and trying to make sure I learn something new each time
 
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