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Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

KingSprinterSacre said:
Ollie confirmed on twitter Thomas Darby goes chasing next season and will start over 2m
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Thomas Darby 25/1 Arkle was one of my first 2020 antepost singles along with Carefully Selected > RSA & today City Island > Stayers !

Thomas Darby was far from the finished article over hurdles clearly appreciates a true strong run race and the stiff test Cheltenham provided!
 
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I used this weeks free Skybet on Dickie Diver @ 25/1 RSA. I was reallt taken by his size in the pre parade ring before the Albert Bartlett. Convinced fences will be the making of him and I think there's every chance he will emerge as Hendo's main RSA horse next season.
 
charlie said:
I used this weeks free Skybet on Dickie Diver @ 25/1 RSA. I was reallt taken by his size in the pre parade ring before the Albert Bartlett. Convinced fences will be the making of him and I think there's every chance he will emerge as Hendo's main RSA horse next season.
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Possible Charlie but he is JP owned and he also owns CHAMP, who has now won over 3m (all be it a slow run 3m), he could maybe be a 4m NH Chase horse, depending on what changes are made to this race
 
PitLad said:
Possible Charlie but he is JP owned and he also owns CHAMP, who has now won over 3m (all be it a slow run 3m), he could maybe be a 4m NH Chase horse, depending on what changes are made to this race
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True, but at current prices with lots of options, wouldn't even enter my mind for an RSA, even with a free bet
 
FaugheenTheMachine said:
Champ looks tailor made for the JLT to me
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You have to throw Birchdale and Champagne Platinum into the Henderson / JP mix as well. They will have some team for novice chases next season and could cover every race with a genuine contender.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
You have to throw Birchdale and Champagne Platinum into the Henderson / JP mix as well. They will have some team for novice chases next season and could cover every race with a genuine contender.
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They couldn't win any of this year's novice hurdles with all those contenders.
 
Nicky had an apparently strong team for the novice hurdles but only managed one second place. His apparently strong team for the 2020 novice chases will be much the same horses that didn't fire in the novice hurdles.
 
archie said:
Nicky had an apparently strong team for the novice hurdles but only managed one second place. His apparently strong team for the 2020 novice chases will be much the same horses that didn't fire in the novice hurdles.
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That wouldn't concern me all that much. Horses develop at different times and given their profiles, unexposed pointers, why shouldn't they have every chance of being top class chasers?
 
I think Hendo’s horses had a poor prep this year, not suggesting next years army will be better or worse but I’d assume his planning is better.

As for Champ, he has always looked a stamina horse to me so I would think they’ll aim towards RSA rather than JLT but I guess conditions may determine that, a March deluge and a slow ground JLT may work for him...
 
Strange question but have WH stopped allowing doubles involving ante-post horses? Trying to place Matt Kuchar at 30s for masters with Paisley Park for stayers but no option of double available. Can get on with most other firms.
 
Geordieboy83 said:
Strange question but have WH stopped allowing doubles involving ante-post horses? Trying to place Matt Kuchar at 30s for masters with Paisley Park for stayers but no option of double available. Can get on with most other firms.
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Ignore this post I have sorted it now. Just having one of those moments. He was 50s too not 30s as posted ����
 
Kevloaf said:
The RSA 1-2-3 aren't looking as bomb proof as Gold Cup contenders now are they?

Topofthegame didn't bomb out badly enough to say you can completely right off his run so Lostintranslation becomes feasible.



I hadn't got LIT on the radar at all, thought he was hugely over rated but plenty of time for me to re-assess that opinion.

Not tonight though :highly_amused:
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Been thinking exactly the same. Had planned to hit the first 3 in the RSA and ABP in small stake accas and free bets throughout the summer, but the performance of Kemboy in particular and LIT means 4 is now 6. Ordinarily at this point I'd reassess my thinking but have landed the first 2 legs of a small stakes big odds treble going on to both Santini and TOTG for the GC so will look to chip away at the other 4 over the summer using the same strategy.
 
archie said:
They couldn't win any of this year's novice hurdles with all those contenders.
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That’s a slightly anti-Henderson comment in my opinion.

It’s naive not to think that some horses are going to improve more for fences than others. Just because a horse wins a novice hurdle at Cheltenham does not mean they will confirm that form the following season over fences.
 
It's been mooted in the past too that Henderson isn't 'the' trainer for novice hurdlers. Plenty of his horses (the majority of his really good'uns) excel after a slower build up and novice hurdle season that other trainers may give them.




The point Archie makes may well link in to the prices though.... the Henderson novices are priced with the above taken into account, and in some cases they're now priced like they are festival winners?




I'm on the side where I'd avoid them for now. Absolutely no value whatsoever in the obvious novice chasers at the head of any of those markets.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
That’s a slightly anti-Henderson comment in my opinion.

It’s naive not to think that some horses are going to improve more for fences than others. Just because a horse wins a novice hurdle at Cheltenham does not mean they will confirm that form the following season over fences.
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It's actually more a comment anti to those who spent the better part of the season calculating how Nicky was going to carve up the novice hurdles between Angels Breath, Mr Fisher, Champ, Birchdale, Dicky Diver etc etc.

Nicky is unfortunate that expectations are usually unfairly high. The same can be said of Mullins, Elliott and, this season, Nicholls.

All I'm saying is that this time last year, people were saying that Santini was a good thing for the RSA based on a fair run in the AB. Most people would accept that Champ's hurdle form is better than Santini's and he must be on the shortlist for next season. The rest have a lot to prove.
 
Santini was 16/1 14/1 12/1 - and the target was CLEAR.

Champ is 10/1 already and the target isn't as clear.




I'll get myself in trouble again no doubt, but betting on Champ for the RSA now is a bad bet at 10/1 relative to vlaue on similar horses in years gone by, no matter what combination you have it in.
 
Nothing is a good bet at 10/1 at this moment in time.
 
archie said:
Nothing is a good bet at 10/1 at this moment in time.
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Will you give me 10/1 that Tiger Roll wins the Cross Country 2020? :p I'd chalk that up as a good bet.


I can't see me backing anything at less than 20/1 until September this year.

Everything less will probably fall into "too obvious so not missed" or "too many options"
 
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