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Cheltenham 2019 Festival Going & Weather

archie

archie

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archie said:
Think this is worth its own thread.

Hopefully these links will be updated with the latest reports but any word from Simon Claisse would be interesting. I think he might be watering sooner rather than later but, given that last year's incidents occurred on soft ground, I wouldn't expect him to flood the place as is being suggested in some places.

Going:
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoi...rse=Cheltenham

Weather:
https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/16d... Racecourse#
Click to expand...

They’ll start on soft side of good especially if it’s a dry forecast for race week
 
Good to soft on the Tuesday has been the mantra for the last few years.
 
Definitely worth its own thread, but experience tells me we wont know anything until a few days before.
 
archie said:
Good to soft on the Tuesday has been the mantra for the last few years.
Click to expand...

Yep
Odds on it’s that. Especially if rain is forecast for the four days.
Just think they might go a bit further if dry forecast and we may end up soft in places on day one.
Or like last year the weather dictates and we are soft or worse
 
Good to soft 1.01

Always the same :devilish:


Back to reality ... at what point does the ground affect the bets you'll have ?

I've backed the majority of bets I'll have ante post ... if it came up heavy we've got no form to go on this year anyway?

The only real horses affected will be ones who thrive on good... but there are only about 2 that really spring to mind
 
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obsessed with vets now aren't we.
the ground may affect more race targets than actual horses chances bar one or two like you said
 
To much made of the ground Imo, great horses go on any ground.
 
quevega said:
obsessed with vets now aren't we.
the ground may affect more race targets than actual horses chances bar one or two like you said
Click to expand...

I'm not sure?

Unless it's heavy, will anything be changing target?

It can't be heavy can it? It was snowing this time last year and never cleared up?

I'll have to check the old thread for accuracy
 
snow abandonments were end of feb begining of march, but there may have been snow before that. I cant remember.
 
Kevloaf said:
Good to soft 1.01

Always the same :devilish:


Back to reality ... at what point does the ground affect the bets you'll have ?

I've backed the majority of bets I'll have ante post ... if it came up heavy we've got no form to go on this year anyway?

The only real horses affected will be ones who thrive on good... but there are only about 2 that really spring to mind
Click to expand...

Heavy ground would be the final nail in this crazy season

I guess you've got a better idea with the chasers what type of ground they go on (e.g. instant cash out of Le Richebourg). The novice hurdlers I'd have to be more cautious with staking
 
After Balko Des Flos and Tiger Roll won last year .... no chance I'd cash out anything to be honest.

Unless heavy, I doubt I'll have much to say in this thread.

You'll all be pleased to know haha
 
doctorwu said:
To much made of the ground Imo, great horses go on any ground.
Click to expand...

The most overused truism in racing.

Most horses go on any ground. Very few horses run to the same level on all goings.
 
Kevloaf said:
After Balko Des Flos and Tiger Roll won last year .... no chance I'd cash out anything to be honest.

Unless heavy, I doubt I'll have much to say in this thread.

You'll all be pleased to know haha
Click to expand...

I think they are different because we (I also cashed both) were acting on the back of trainer vibes that they wouldn't go on the ground

Le Richebourg has stacks of form proving he won't go on very soft/heavy. He's one of my biggest bets going into this festival and I'd be stupid not to reduce that if the ground changed. That said, I think the preview circuit chat about it being softer on the Tuesday will be overplayed
 
bobbyvalentino said:
I think they are different because we (I also cashed both) were acting on the back of trainer vibes that they wouldn't go on the ground

Le Richebourg has stacks of form proving he won't go on very soft/heavy. He's one of my biggest bets going into this festival and I'd be stupid not to reduce that if the ground changed. That said, I think the preview circuit chat about it being softer on the Tuesday will be overplayed
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What's your concern with Le Richebourg ?
He's not a dressage horse.
Why do you think he'll not try or perform just because the ground is softer ?
He's clearly got some stamina with the drinmore performance and has improved from last year and for jumping fences possibly.
They mentioned ground as an excuse last year as he didn't perform as they expected.
I don't think for a minute the horse won't act or has an attitude when running on soft.

It's the same /similar school of thought that people had with apple's jade not being quick enough for 2 miles. based on previous runs when elliot didn't have her right.
He immediately excused her runs due to her being a stayer and needing further, and he was dead wrong.
 
archie said:
The most overused truism in racing.

Most horses go on any ground. Very few horses run to the same level on all goings.
Click to expand...

Not if you're Waiting Patiently:highly_amused:
 
quevega said:
What's your concern with Le Richebourg ?
He's not a dressage horse.
Why do you think he'll not try or perform just because the ground is softer ?
He's clearly got some stamina with the drinmore performance and has improved from last year and for jumping fences possibly.
They mentioned ground as an excuse last year as he didn't perform as they expected.
I don't think for a minute the horse won't act or has an attitude when running on soft.

It's the same /similar school of thought that people had with apple's jade not being quick enough for 2 miles. based on previous runs when elliot didn't have her right.
He immediately excused her runs due to her being a stayer and needing further, and he was dead wrong.
Click to expand...

Going on the ground is probably a confusing expression. I'm not questioning attitude at all.

He needs firm ground to be seen at his best, whereas others will perform better in softer ground
 
bobbyvalentino said:
Going on the ground is probably a confusing expression. I'm not questioning attitude at all.

He needs firm ground to be seen at his best, whereas others will perform better in softer ground
Click to expand...

it's nonsense bobby, don't cash out.
 
Apparently, no plans to water in the short term.
 
I was super worried about the melting snow and the heavy ground ruining my bets last year, but to be honest the old horse I backed beaten by the ground was maybe Might Bite, and that was bloody close.

So I'd be of the same opinion as Kev, I'm looking for the profile of the likely winner and form. I'll make a call on any conditions that are outrageously favourable closer to the time imo
 
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