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Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

billymag said:
Anyone worried about Willies stable form since the Dublin Fest. Only run around a dozen but apart from an odds on winner they have run terribly. Its certainly looks worth a look going forward.
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Was thinking similar and considered posting then stopped and thought “this is Willie Mullins”
9/10% winners last 14 days?
 
Its the distances they are getting beat that catches the eye. Since Dublin he's had 13 runners 1 winner at 8/13, 12 losers, 3 x PU and others were beaten 17L, 23L, 17L, 96L, 4L, 23L, 85L, 6L, 31L.

From the corresponding fixtures this time last year he had 2,1,F,2,2,2,PU,1,2,1,2,4,2,PU,2.

I wouldnt be trying to form any a strong conclusions from this but worth keeping an eye on.
 
billymag said:
Anyone worried about Willies stable form since the Dublin Fest. Only run around a dozen but apart from an odds on winner they have run terribly. Its certainly looks worth a look going forward.
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Worth mentioning but I think you need to keep it in perspective. Of all those runners, only the odds on shot started favourite so they obviously weren't particularly expected. He did manage a couple of G1s on DRF Sunday and I've not heard of any new sickness problems.
 
I wouldn't worry about the in between racing for WPM.

Looking at DRF he had a fairly successful festival, certainly consistent if nothing else.

Day 1:

Race 1: 5th, 7th, 8th, PU, U - 5th placed horse beaten just over 6 lengths, can't account for the unseated horse either.

Race 2: 4th - A fair distance behind, but Apples Jade beat them all by a fair distance in fairness.

Race 3: 5th - Suspected handicap plot for Cheltenham too, never nearer, now favourite for the Coral Cup. Also 13th & 18th (this one coming off a layoff).

Race 4: 5th - Mt. Leinster, who had been well held in previous races anyway, so no shock.

Race 5: 1st - Min, 4/9f expected.

Race 6: F - Voix Du Reve, looking like a place was booked when coming down.

Race 7: No runner.

Day 2:

Race 1: 2nd & 12th - 2nd horse beaten just 2 lengths

Race 2: 4th - Tiger Tap Tap, many commented he was impeded in getting a run, still wasn't beaten far and had form with winning horse previous run.

Race 3: 1st & 2nd - Enough said

Race 4: 2nd & 7th - 2nd horse beaten just a neck

Race 5: No Runner.

Race 6: 1st - Bellshill 2/1 2nd fav.

Race 7: 2nd & 4th - Beaten 3 3/4 lengths & 10 lengths respectively

Race 8: 4th & 7th - 4th horse beaten 5 1/2 lengths.

Now I've made notes about WPM targeting certain days of festivals, and was written off by some, but day 2 was somewhat more consistent than day 1 by a fair way. Overall though it was a solid, consistent festival for him, and seeing as their are 4 major festivals to target this season it is no surprise his best results will likely come at these than in midweek/minor racing.

For DRF he ended up with the following stats:

Runners: 24

Wins: 3 (12.50%)

Places: 4 (16.67%)

Wins/Places combined: 7 (29.17%)

Fallers/Unseats: 2

PU's: 1

Overall, for the first major festival of the season I don't think it was a bad return, from a betting perspective it would have been, but as a trainers point of view it was pretty consistent IMO. It was a competitive festival, where only Gordon Elliott beat WPM in number of winners with 4.
 
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Same save yourself 5 mins don’t bother looking at the prices
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Ah OK, hadn't seen, don't follow them one bit myself, find them awful :highly_amused:
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They emailed me this morning to say they'd put my account in a protective state as I hadn't used it in so long, but it had a balance.

Naturally I logged in immediately.

There was 25p in there.
 
Going to have a yankee with singles, good bad or ugly? Ladbrokes is offering the best non online prices..

Largish layout but one winner nearly gets my money back, but hoping for more.. already have another largish patent with three other horses, so this will be my last multi bets until the weights come out for the handicaps..

Topofthegame RSA 11/2 5 points win
Lostintranslation JLT 6/1 5 points win
Tiger Roll Cross country 5/2 8 points win
Le Richebourg Arlike 3/1 6 points win

1 point win doubles
0.5 points e/w trebles
0.5 e/w acc

Total points 35

Not great prices but I would be shocked if I did not get a run for my money in each race & 95% certain they will run in them races..
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
I wouldn't worry about the in between racing for WPM.

Looking at DRF he had a fairly successful festival, certainly consistent if nothing else.

Day 1:

Race 1: 5th, 7th, 8th, PU, U - 5th placed horse beaten just over 6 lengths, can't account for the unseated horse either.

Race 2: 4th - A fair distance behind, but Apples Jade beat them all by a fair distance in fairness.

Race 3: 5th - Suspected handicap plot for Cheltenham too, never nearer, now favourite for the Coral Cup. Also 13th & 18th (this one coming off a layoff).

Race 4: 5th - Mt. Leinster, who had been well held in previous races anyway, so no shock.

Race 5: 1st - Min, 4/9f expected.

Race 6: F - Voix Du Reve, looking like a place was booked when coming down.

Race 7: No runner.

Day 2:

Race 1: 2nd & 12th - 2nd horse beaten just 2 lengths

Race 2: 4th - Tiger Tap Tap, many commented he was impeded in getting a run, still wasn't beaten far and had form with winning horse previous run.

Race 3: 1st & 2nd - Enough said

Race 4: 2nd & 7th - 2nd horse beaten just a neck

Race 5: No Runner.

Race 6: 1st - Bellshill 2/1 2nd fav.

Race 7: 2nd & 4th - Beaten 3 3/4 lengths & 10 lengths respectively

Race 8: 4th & 7th - 4th horse beaten 5 1/2 lengths.

Now I've made notes about WPM targeting certain days of festivals, and was written off by some, but day 2 was somewhat more consistent than day 1 by a fair way. Overall though it was a solid, consistent festival for him, and seeing as their are 4 major festivals to target this season it is no surprise his best results will likely come at these than in midweek/minor racing.

For DRF he ended up with the following stats:

Runners: 24

Wins: 3 (12.50%)

Places: 4 (16.67%)

Wins/Places combined: 7 (29.17%)

Fallers/Unseats: 2

PU's: 1

Overall, for the first major festival of the season I don't think it was a bad return, from a betting perspective it would have been, but as a trainers point of view it was pretty consistent IMO. It was a competitive festival, where only Gordon Elliott beat WPM in number of winners with 4.
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But since then they have run terribly absolutely terribly and the distances they are getting beat is massive and he is being unbelievably cagey with his entries, Im just pointing it out going forward but something is not looking right.
 
I suspect that the strict new vaccination rules in Ireland may be the reason that some aren't running or even being entered.

As I said, the runners since the DRF were not fancied so did not disappoint.
 
Yes fair enough Archie and as mentioned earlier its a limited set of data I thought it was interesting to see how Willies did this time last year and they ran 2,1,F,2,2,2,PU,1,2,1,2,4,2,PU,2, so enough there to keep a watching brief for now.

FWIW i think theres enough in the numbers that ill lay Willies to Betfair SP win and place over the next two days
 
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