Cheltenham 2019 - Analysis (What did we learn, with 2020 in mind)

[ComplyOrDie]

Cracking stuff Kev, finally got round to reading it all tonight. Will hopefully post my answers to the questions posed on here when I find the time.

Glad you mentioned the mortgage thing, I am looking at getting one end of this year with the other half so this is interesting, though the majority of my gambling is done through family accounts and a non-primary bank account that I likely won't be declaring.

 

[The King Pimm]

Hi all,
I did notice that when I originally joined this forum at the start of February I never answered the joining questions so just a bit about me.
I’ve been following and betting on horse racing for 16 years. I got into it being a runner for the ‘old sweat’ Firemen at my first Fire Station in the valleys town of Abertillery. I used to spend my Saturday & Sunday afternoons putting their bets on at the local
Bookmakers and ended up following their bets and enjoyed the unpredictable winning. I’ve been visiting the Festival for the past 9 years from memory, going up on a Thursday. My favourite horse of all time was Alberta’s Run. I started getting serious about the Festival about 5 years ago and have made a decent profit at the past 3. I’ve really enjoyed this Forum and wish I had discovered it earlier. I only know a few people with a genuine interest in horse racing so have found this Forum very interesting and helpful.

I found your post Festival analysis very interesting Kev, it was very beneficial to see what figures you were committing too and getting back. I’ve only recently switched on to the points system of describing betting value commitment and completely understand why it’s generally used instead of monetary value but when you posted your financial commitments it helped me understand a few things in the build to the Festival. I did find your responses quite edgy and cranky at times especially closer to the start but now I know what you had committed I get it and understand more. Its way more than I had committed and I’m really glad you made a profit. I remember you stressing the importance of fact checking with non runners and the disastrous consequences of the equine flu outbreak but the ramifications would have been huge for someone in your position.

Me personally I had committed £2800 this year which was a £1000 increase from the previous year. I profited around £750 this year compared to £600 in 2018. So whilst I made a bigger profit in proportion to what I staked I didn’t do as well this year. My biggest mistakes this year were picking the wrong bankers and cashing out too early again. My break down of bets were mainly Multiples (Lucky 31’s & 63’s) with Bet 365 (£1800), Sky Request a Bets £750 and Singles with WH, PP and Betway. I made a £200 profit from my multiples, made a £150 loss on my Sky Bets and did well on my singles which were placed during the afternoon to cover market movers like Duc De Geneives, Beware The Bear, A Plus Tard, Chitabello, William Henry & Hazel Hill. My chosen bankers hurt me though, this year I chose Glen Forsa, BVD, BDD Ballyward, Defi Du Sol, Sire Du Berlais, Penhill, Posh Trish, Spirit of the Games, Sir Erec, Ucello Conti, Dallas De Picton and Magic Saint. At least 2 and often 3 of these featured in my Lucky 31’s and 63’s. Fortunately I had a number of high odd placed horses in these multiples to get me out the shit. I did frustratingly cash out on 2 Lucky 63’s which saw the last 2 legs win on one of them and placed horses at high odds both on the other meaning I missed out on around £1600!!

The races I profited from this year were the Superme (had the first 3), The Ballymore, The County Hurdle and The JLT. The races that hurt me most this year were the Arkle, Champion Hurdle, Mares Novice, Triumph, Albert Bartlett and Grand Annual .

Changes I hope to make and commit too for next years Festival is don’t Cash Out on any Multiples, make more of an effort to enter my own Request A Bets with Sky, keep some money back to bet on market mover singles on the day of the race, stick with your gut feeling (I had placed Silver Streak in a Bet slip twice in the build up to the Champion Hurdle race on the day at 100/1 for 3 places and 40/1 for 6 places and didn’t commit!!!)

I do believe money can be made from Antepost but I think I’ll save up and only commit on NRNB because I got stung on a number of bets placed in November & December.

I know I got criticised for stating my fear of backing Willie Mullins horses because of his concerning fallers stat but once again the majority of fallers I had were Mullins horses (BDD, Ballyward and Kemboy) and also don’t back the Gordon Elliot horses he is the most vocal about in the build up to Cheltenham. I will also back all the Mullins horses blind in the Mares Novice race!!

What I did like to see at this year’s Festival was that no trainer completely dominated, it was nice to see the races shared out. I was fearful that Mullins, Elliot and Henderson would clean up again which cannot be healthy for the Festival.

I generally struggle with the Flat and it cost me a lot of money last year so if you don’t mind I’ll be keeping an eye on your selections Kev and few of you without commentating as I don’t have much to offer on the Flat but interested in learning from you guys.

I’m sure i’ll never know but I’d love to find out how Scooby got on, his sheet of horses backed was incredible!!

A prediction I will make for next year’s festival is that the number of offers and value available will decease again. I think 1/5 odds will become the norm, I’ve noticed B365 offering a 1/5 more often since the Festival ended. From speaking to a few people I know with contacts within the bookmarking industry they are really struggling with people match betting. I know loads of people match betting with no interest in horse racing nor sport in general but do it as a part time job. It’s just numbers to them and they use multiple accounts to make decent profits with no risk attach but they have zero interest in the sport.

 

[Kevloaf]

I found your post Festival analysis very interesting Kev, it was very beneficial to see what figures you were committing too and getting back......

I did find your responses quite edgy and cranky at times especially closer to the start but now I know what you had committed I get it and understand more. Its way more than I had committed and I’m really glad you made a profit. I remember you stressing the importance of fact checking with non runners and the disastrous consequences of the equine flu outbreak but the ramifications would have been huge for someone in your position.

Interesting point.:highly_amused: Any examples?

I generally struggle with the Flat and it cost me a lot of money last year so if you don’t mind I’ll be keeping an eye on your selections Kev and few of you without commentating as I don’t have much to offer on the Flat but interested in learning from you guys.

Hopefully get off to a bang with Magna Grecia in the 2000 Guineas

I’m sure i’ll never know but I’d love to find out how Scooby got on, his sheet of horses backed was incredible!!

It's obviously not my place to say the exact amounts but I did share a few messages after the festival and he did incredibly well. Life changing amount for sure.

Something to aspire towards for me, for sure.

 

[jono]

Brilliant post Kev. Loved reading that and yours King Pimm. I'll dip in and out probably with some bits and then some analysis of my own (will be far less in-depth!) but the first thought on the handicaps...

Excellent in the Handicaps – Had a pretty good return in the handicaps to be fair after a slow start. Obviously backed multiple runners in each but definitely an area I’m improving in. Had the 1-2 in the Close Brothers, the 1-2-3-4 in the Coral Cup, the 1-2-3 in the Fred Winter, The 1-2-5 in the Pertemps, the ‘lucky’ double with the winner and 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in the Brown Plate with the winner of the Kim Muir, the 2-3 in the Kim Muir as well, the 1-2-3-4 in the County and the 1-2-3-5 in the Martin Pipe

I know a lot of people see them as mug bets but have you / thought of placing exactas / trifectas etc? Obviously not an antepost option but just looking through those results, and knowing that you have also hit the 1-2-3's in previous festivals (though maybe not as many)

Close Brothers 1-2 Exacta paid £32.30
Coral Cup 1-2-3-4 Trifecta paid £10,893
Fred Winter 1-2-3 Trifecta paid £410.19
Pertemps 1-2 Exacta paid £2,446.82
County 1-2-3-4 Trifecta paid £3,060.49
Martin Pipe 1-2-3 Trifecta paid £256.98

To a £1 stake.

The amount of horses you had backed in each race may not make it worthwhile (for example if you had 8 runners backed, trying to hit the 1-2-3 would cover 56 combinations, 10 backed 120) but the returns are generally strong and favourable and with the kind of record you have had in the handicaps over the last few seasons, could be worthwhile?

A type of bet I rarely utilise (every year I see the returns, make a note for the next year and forget) but i don't see them much worse than multiples really in the right circumstances. Even the likes of a Early Doors / DDP (24/1) and A Plus Tard / Tower Bridge (31/1) are strong odds for what were fairly obvious and short odd 1-2's

 

[Kevloaf]

Brilliant post Kev. Loved reading that and yours King Pimm. I'll dip in and out probably with some bits and then some analysis of my own (will be far less in-depth!) but the first thought on the handicaps...



I know a lot of people see them as mug bets but have you / thought of placing exactas / trifectas etc? Obviously not an antepost option but just looking through those results, and knowing that you have also hit the 1-2-3's in previous festivals (though maybe not as many)

Close Brothers 1-2 Exacta paid £32.30
Coral Cup 1-2-3-4 Trifecta paid £10,893
Fred Winter 1-2-3 Trifecta paid £410.19
Pertemps 1-2 Exacta paid £2,446.82
County 1-2-3-4 Trifecta paid £3,060.49
Martin Pipe 1-2-3 Trifecta paid £256.98

To a £1 stake.

The amount of horses you had backed in each race may not make it worthwhile (for example if you had 8 runners backed, trying to hit the 1-2-3 would cover 56 combinations, 10 backed 120) but the returns are generally strong and favourable and with the kind of record you have had in the handicaps over the last few seasons, could be worthwhile?

A type of bet I rarely utilise (every year I see the returns, make a note for the next year and forget) but i don't see them much worse than multiples really in the right circumstances. Even the likes of a Early Doors / DDP (24/1) and A Plus Tard / Tower Bridge (31/1) are strong odds for what were fairly obvious and short odd 1-2's

Hmmmm, yeah it does need considering. I'll check exactly how many I backed in each, what the stake would have been etc for this year and last year too - just to see.

With the amount staked in total, perhaps it's something I should 'set aside'.

I've done less than 50 bets like that in my life I'd say.... although one was the Melbourne Cup straight forecast when Joseph beat his Dad.


Jeez, before I even start - no way I'd have been down and this years would have definitely paid for the past couple of years at least?! - Will fact check this though

 

[Hurricane fly]

Didn’t scooby have the equivalent of 66pts (for him) on Paisley Park at 25/1

Can’t imagine 1pt is £5 either so the mind boggles!

 

[jono]

Regarding myself, I touched upon some of the questions here soon after the festival so i'll try not to repeat too much:
http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15283-Up-or-down&p=110778#post110778

Certainly won't be as interesting a read as Kev. Laying out the whole week, with the stakes involved was fascinating really but my take...

1. How did you get on?

2019
Up by 59pts
46% ROI

Compares to previous years of:

2018
Up by 163pts
81.5% ROI

2017
Up by 25pts
37.3% ROI

2016
Up by 25pts
111.8% ROI

So i've had better seasons in terms of ROI but still more than happy. I had 2 very small antepost years before this but they were so minimal in relation I ignore them.

2. Will you all be continuing with ante post next year? / Will your approach change for 2019?

Continuing, absolutely. Actually struggled to give last season a proper go so will have my head in the game again next season.
Will my approach change; yes and no...i'll come back to this at the very end...

3. How did the yankees/multiples/ lucky 15's/placepots etc do for all?

Only 1 multiple landed which is pretty shocking, that one being a Min and Envoi Allen DRF going onto Altior and Tiger Roll at the festival. That 1 winning fourfold meant I finished +4pts on multiples. Looking back at the 2 years prior (barely did any in 2016):

2018 +87 pts
2017 +5 pts

But it'll be something I continue. 2019 and 2017 were disappointing with the returns only just outweighing the stakes but with these bets it only takes 1 or 2 horses for the outcome to shift dramatically. Benie des Dieux being the primary 'tipping point' this year which was extremely unlucky. For me the reward in these outweigh the risk and despite the slightly subdued viewpoint on 2/3 years, they've still been in profit.

4. What advice or lessons can be learnt from this year (ante post and/or on the day)

I've just been reading back the first post I did on this in 2017 after my first year on the forum. Kev mentions it in his post but giving the favourite or fancied horses on their attempt at a race continues was something flagged 2 years ago. Really does make it a worthwhile thing to look back on these threads again as the season starts / progresses and the festival looms closer.

(Not ones i'm necessarily agreeing with or think but...) Horses that could apply next season:
Give Me A Copper (Ultima)
Uradel (Coral)
Footpad (Ryanair)
Janika (Plate) (unlikely due to OR)
Whiskey Sour (County)
Presenting Percy (Gold Cup)
Stand Up and Fight (Foxhunters)
Magic Saint (Grand Annual)

'Top' Jockeys - both Le Breuil and Any Second Now I passed up despite having arguably 2 of the best amateur jockeys the festival has witnessed. Even more unbelievably, I had backed Kilfrum Cross in the Kim Muir almost purely on the booking of Derek O'Connor. To then cash out that bet and NOT back Any Second Now...just plain stupidly...enough said on that one... You just have to back the horses that these 2 are riding even if you feel the horses form may not justify it imo.

Cash Out - Only 3 of these backfired to varying degrees for me throughout the season.

1. Envoi Allen. As per us all. This really was unlucky though. He won on Sunday 2nd December when GE confirmed he wouldn't run at the festival. On Monday 3rd December just the very next day Malone Road was ruled out. Now if that setback to MR had been announced just 12 or so hours earlier i'm sure everyone and certainly for myself i'd have left the 33/1 bet rolling. So it added extra insult. Perhaps we need to start treating Elliott with the same cautionary stance at Willie Mullins. For me i'm still inclined to take GE at his word for now though.

2. Vinndication. As per EA - going on the trainers word I cashed out 3 bets at 33/1 for the JLT. Only to see him line up at much shorter odds. It turned out he didn't challenge the front pair so no harm done but would have been a kick in the teeth if he had of done so!

3. Kilfrum Cross. As pointed out in (4) above. Backed on the basis of Derek O'Connor riding. He then ran a blinder in second. The EW bet would have landed if I had of kept the bet. (And Brought back slight shades of deja vu with the result of Nativer River being done by JP's Minella Rocco - if you believe that DO'C had the provisional ride on KC then again his choice justified by a fine margin)

So from those 3 bets, I would have had a winner and a second place. BUT the opportunity of Cash Out is 100% a positive still and these 3 stand up little against the amount of successful cashed out bets. Every cash out ended up being backed on another horse but the flexibility it offers, especially at the early stage of the season is a huge help. I know Ista is one of few that doesn't have this luxury of a bet365 account and it's one i'll continue to be happy to use whilst I can. I'll continue to within reason trust a trainer on targets as well next year despite those 2 examples.

5. Your biggest mistakes / The races/horses you got wrong

Firstly my biggest mistake is not always looking back at previous festivals throughout the year and taking what i've learnt onboard. Far too easy to get swept away and take in new information without going back over the old. But a few to note...

1. Sire du Berlais. Missed his price. Stubbornness to not back him despite an obvious plot at a short price. Could have got 6/1 the night before but didn't have time to look that evening. Went off 4/1. 40 minutes earlier I was snapping the 3/1 up on Defi du Seuil. The JLT of course was basically a 2 horse match so comparing it to a 24 runner handicap isn't fair but a 4/1 winner still shouldn't be passed up. Should have at the very least gone in a multiple or two.

2. Frodon. Got plenty of races wrong but this was the one I really didn't see. Never thought he could be a grade 1 winner at the festival. I'm still not quite sold on him. And still look back thinking if Road to Respect had of just jumped a clear round...but he beat them all fair and square. Super horse. Not sure i'll ever get him right.

3. 4 Miler. I very rarely back more than 2 or 3 horses per race. One of the few races that I tend to break this trend on is the 4 miler due to getting the jockey bookings down. This ended up a disaster. Bacardys was a project for this race all Winter for me that never materialised. And Mall Dini wasn't entered. Despite those 2 non runners I went into the race with Ok Corral, Ballyward, Discorama and Jerrysback at super prices. Ballyward had a horrible fatal fall. Ok Corral couldn't get near them and Discorama and Jerrysback were backed Win Only. Add to that just a horrible race to watch. Now having the top 3 in the market at big prices IS 100% a good way to play the race. So I just have to take the result on the chin. Repeat that kind of selections (as most on here did) and i'll be up more than down but I really should have backed EW and covered Jamie Codd's ride. For a race that I backed 6 runners in to get no returns though is poor no matter how I spin it

2. (continued) Will your approach change for 2019?

Most probably, yes.

For the 2018 Festival I made a point to back more EW shots, something that I was very much against the years before. That ended up being my best year yet. I swayed back towards Win only for the majority of my bets for 2019 for various reasons - mainly a lack of funds and focus. There's obviously more than 1 factor to why 2018 was so good for me but it may not be coincidence that it occurred after backing more EW shots. I can note plenty of horses who if I had kept that approach would have come in this year in the places. So I really should be looking at more EW bets I feel for next season.

I feel like i'm on a never ending routine of house renovation which takes up a lot of funds that could otherwise be used towards this. But I will be able to increase my overall stake again. And based on the 4 years prior I feel it is justified to do so. I have no issue admitting I probably have a lot less of an overall stake than most on the forum but would like to make the next step up so to speak. A question for all, how did you approach this, if you did?

- The obvious would be to just back my opinion stronger by increasing my stake to say 2pts a selection.

- The alternative is to back more horses. Not in the sense of creating a book - but just being more flexible through the season on multiple horses. As noted earlier on, I pretty much always back 2-3 horses a race. A look at 2019 shows my singles inc. NR's were: (any race also included)

Supreme - 6 backed / 6 runners (WH offer inflated this)
Arkle - 4 / 0
Ultima - 2
CH - 2 / 1
Mares 0
NHC - 6 / 4
Close Bros - 3 / 3

Ballymore - 3 backed / 2 runners
RSA - 4 / 4
Coral - 3 / 3
CC - 1 / 1
XC - 2 / 2
FW - 3 / 3
Bumper - 1 / 0

JLT - 4 backed / 2 runners
Pertemps - 2 / 2
Ryanair - 4 / 3
Stayers - 4 / 3
Plate - 2 / 2
Mares Nov - 1 / 1
Kim Muir - 3 / 2

Triumph - 3 backed / 2 runners
County - 2 / 2
AB - 2 / 2
Gold Cup - 3 / 3
Foxhunter - 1 / 1
MP - 1 / 1
GA - 2 / 2

And there's plenty of times through the season where i'll want or be tempted to back a horse but hold off. So instead of backing say the same selections much stronger, instead spread the selections out.

Of course much will depend on what horses I fancy. Another factor between the difference between 2018 and 2019 festivals for me was just that I had a stronger opionion on a selection of horses than I did last yeatr. So it'll certainly be fluid and not set in stone.
I'm thinking a mix between the 2 but interested to hear opinions...

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Losers live in the past. Winners learn from the past and enjoy working in the present toward the future.

I wanted to go with Rafiki from the Lion King “Oh yes, the past can hurt, but the way I see it – you can either run from it, or learn from it” but it doesn’t fit as well as Denis Waitley’s quote above.

Those who have been around for more than 12 months will probably /hopefully remember this thread last year, which follows on from the one jono started in 2017. Worth reading through again, and highly recommended for any new members to read through. http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/show...earn-from-Cheltenham-2018-(with-2019-in-mind)

This will be a long post. :highly_amused: It will bend a few of the forum ‘unwritten rules’ (Mentioning amounts instead of points and some unavoidable after-timing the main two) which I apologise for however it is impossible for me to provide proper context or analysis without both, which hopefully makes sense if you make it to the end. (Jesus, the end, I’ve been writing for 15 minutes and not even properly got to the start yet).


Ultimately, this post if for me to analyse my own 2019 festival and writing it down will help me do that – that said, I very much welcome and comments, questions (and to some extent criticism) and I hope others answer the questions below too so we can all get something out of it [FONT=&][/FONT]


So, taking the questions from the thread last year

1. How did you get on?
2. Will you all be continuing with ante post next year? / Will your approach change for 2019?
3. How did the yankees/multiples/ lucky 15's/placepots etc do for all?
4. What advice or lessons can be learnt from this year (ante post and/or on the day)
5. Your biggest mistakes / The races/horses you got wrong
6. Other points


1. How did you get on?

The cold, hard facts:
2019 Cheltenham:
Total Stake: £21,730.42
Total Return: £24,100.56
Total Profit: £2370.14 (+237 pts) - ROI 10.91%
To give that a little bit of context I’ll add it to my previous festivals:

2019 - +237 pts (ROI 10.91%) - from 2173 pts staked

2018 - +351 pts (ROI 26.48%) - from 1326 pts staked

2017 - +202 pts (ROI 19.59%) - from 1033 pts staked

2016 - +147 pts (ROI 37.70%) - from 391 pts staked

2015 - +84 pts (ROI 50.08%) - from 165 pts staked

2014 - +41 pts (ROI 27.79%) - from 150 pts staked

2013 - +8 pts (ROI 3.93%) - from 209 pts staked

2012 - +20 pts (ROI 28.37%) - from 70 pts staked

2011 - +8 pts (ROI 15.84%) - from 50 pts staked

<tbody>
</tbody>

On the face of it, I’d say it went well. It was the second highest total profit I’ve ever had, so I can’t grumble. I have however, felt quite flat about it since it all finished. I had 5 years growth in terms of profit year-on-year and this is obviously a trend I’m striving towards, so I’m disappointed that has dipped on last year.
The obvious reason for that is the ROI is down at 10.91% (still MUCH better than any bank would offer) but it’s my worst by a long way since 2013 (and that was back when I was only backing one horse per race, two at a push).
My total stake increased a mighty 63.87% on last year. This was a calculated decision based upon analysis last year and effectively I increased the value of a ‘point’ from £10 to £20 which accounts for the rise in stake. What I was obviously hoping for though was that reflecting in the profit which it hasn’t. I was still profitable so it hasn’t been a bad decision by any stretch, but ultimately it wasn’t a huge success either and staking over 20 grand is the absolute limit of what I can afford realistically without any unforeseen big wins. I had a very profitable ‘flat season’ last year whereby I’d increased the standard bet from £10 to £20 and that helped with the increase in stake too, but I’m not (and wasn’t) planning to stake much more than £15,000 this year. More on that below!

Hi Kev - great post. I’ve a few questions and points I’ll make. My own analysis for my festival will come after the jumps season ends so probably in two or three weeks time.

Firstly, whilst the ROI didn’t improve again, it’s still at a very decent level which I’m sure all of us would be pleased with.. Do you set an amount you want to win, as in a percentage target? I see you said you were aiming to bet £15k but bet 20k. Would you say because your stake rose from £10 to £20 for a single point, and therefore had a fair bit more on every race, you were inclined to cover more horses because of the worry of losing that higher amount on a race? Therefore your ROI dropped? Do you see what I mean - I’m not sure I’ve explained it too well.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

2. Will you all be continuing with ante post next year? / Will your approach change for 2020?
Yes, and maybe?
As I said last year - I will absolutely be carrying on with ante-post for Cheltenham - I do believe it is harder than it used to be, however I do not believe ante-post punting is dead which I hear all too often. I think enough of us on here have proved that isn't the case!

In terms of winners, I had 19/28 – which is actually very poor for me and the method I use. I thought I’d ‘played it safe’ this year which is partly true, but going in to more detail, I backed some on the day and ‘not ante-post’! Notably, Hazel Hill 7/2 (about 30 seconds before the off), Ch’tibello 12/1 the night before, a top up on Sire Du Berlais at 6/1 night before, Altior (4/5 special offer) on the day, William Henry (35/1 winner, did post that selection/reasoning on here in a fledging attempt at covering up this after-timing), Le Breuil 9/1 (very much a spur of the moment safety cover bet as I thought I had the 4 miler by the balls), A Plus Tard 15/2 on the Saturday (declaration stage), Roksana 9/1 (on the day, and did the Hugh Taylor double with Duc Des Genievres). £10 e/w 47/1 paid £718.75
On the face of it, that would mean ante post I’d only have had 11/28 winners. That is a shockingly bad return for someone who makes a book in some races! The above also doesn’t count the biggest return I had from a single bet, which again was placed on the day. I had an each way double(s) on: Siruh Du Lac & Spiritofthegames with Any Second Now. SDL and Spirit we’re winner and placed in the Plate, so both were rolling on to Any Second Now (who I’d made a case for and backed earlier in the season but he didn’t win) but I thought was too short! £15 e/w (2x £7.50 ew) paid £941.25.
So that is £1680.00 back from two each way doubles placed on the day. Now that is NOT how I planned to make the majority of my profit, it’s lucky, unreliable and a little embarrassing for somebody who spent as much time on this forum as I do!
There was also a Defi Du Seuil/Frodon double that paid £390 and an Altior, Tiger Roll, Envoi Allen Trixie that paid £442
However, I do have to factor in the fact that the strategy I have, of backing more than one at bigger prices does allow me to have these ‘saver’ bets and therefore, it is a lot safer than it sounds and effectively I have made my own luck by having a nice book to start with by the time the day-of-race markets form.

What can I learn from that? Well I’m torn to be honest. I didn’t fully go through with that ‘covering’ strategy or safety approach. Some of the ones that ‘got away’ that (in the 20:20 of hindsight) I should have backed include:

Espoir D’allen – now this was a really stupid one – I had the £25 ‘free’ from 365 and I had this in the slip at 18/1 win only. I already had 5 backed in the 10 runner race (Apples 6s and 8s, Buveur 11/4 and the £25 free on him at 11/4, Laurina 12s, Sharjah 15s, Melon 22s. I should have at least put £10 ew on the other runners, but I couldn’t really see past one of “the big 3” winning it. I’d have been up regardless of who won and in previous years I’d have done that, as ultimately, my ‘strong opinion’ was that the front 3 will win the race…which was wrong – but I was in a position where I could have made profit despite being wrong… which is surely the sensible if not ‘too safe’ an option.
Envoi Allen – He’ll have to go in here, as I cashed out the 33/1 for a profit of £60 but I was reluctant to back him again, and couldn’t bring myself to in a single. I don’t regret cashing it out based on the information I had at the time…but it’s a frustrating one nevertheless.
Minella Indo – Livid about this one. Again, in the 365 bet slip… why I didn’t even put £5 e/w on I cannot remember. I briefly remember thinking along the lines of “Well Allaho has him covered and I’m on that at 40/1 e/w” but even so, I usually always back the horse that’s second to one I fancy if they re-oppose (at the right price) in case they finish 1-2 again. In this case I’d have gotten lucky with it but a big error on my part. I’d backed some others with the additional places late on the day too and just didn’t think clearly enough. Really frustrating and poor judgement on my part.

Before making a decision on whether or not I’d change, I should also focus on some of the ‘good points/successes’ from the ante-post too…

Supreme / Klassical Dream – Long time forumites will know this race has been a minefield for me in the last two years. I’ve ended up forced to make a losing book in this race (with non-runners) and it was highlighted as a race I need to be more careful with in 2017/2018 and 2019. Fortunately this year I got it right. I only had -£67 in non runners (2018 was -£223 and 2017 was -£190). Obviously some of that is luck but I was more selective and bar Al Dancer (who I didn’t really fancy) I had decent prices on the market principles. Angel’s Breath 33/1, Klassical Dream 25/1, Aramon 48/1. I also fancied Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet at bigger prices 25/1 and 40/1 from quite a way out as plenty of us highlighted on here. I made a profit cashing out too (only £30) but that flexibility from 365 certainly helped so as long as that’s still an option I’ll use it – although with £30 it’s hardly life changing if I lost it (granted it’s hard to know if I’d still have backed the right horses without that security) – I think so though. A great start to the week with a 1-2-

RSA – By the absolute balls (like I know many of us did) – this race is an example of how I like to approach ante post at Cheltenham and it working - The 1-2-3 backed at 28/1, 16/1 & 12/1 and 22/1 in Topofthegame, Santini and Delta Work. Cover bets on the other runners but all at big e/w prices so a small price to pay (what I should have done in the CH etc)

JLT – This ended uyp being a key race for me as I went quite strongly in on Defi Du Seuil on the day and the night before however I did have him at 15/1 ante post and Lostintranslation at 25/1 – as well as Mengli Khan at 33/1 who filled the placed. I backed the other runners too, very similar to the RSA and a cracking result.

Stayers Hurdle – Won’t be the only one with this, but I think the biggest ante post winner and biggest single I had was Paisley Park at 25/1 - £25 e/w paid £831.25. Quite satisfying as Penhill was my main selection for this race but because PP went off fav, I was able to go fishing and managed to make a case and back Sam Spinner on the day – which if I didn’t have the fancy price about PP I might not have been as inclined to do (impossible to tell, but I like the angle)

Mares Novice – Now this may be perceived one of two ways, genius or fool! When the decs came out and were posted on here, I backed every single Mullins runner NRNB. Unfortunately Paddy weren’t BOG but Eglantine Du Seuil 20/1 and Concertista 33/1 made this a profitable race. I didn’t expect them all to run, but backing Mullins blind paid off and I didn’t fancy Epatante at all. There is an element of luck involved though, as hindsight has shown us Honeysuckle was probably a knocking good bet in this (Quevega will be pleased/gutted at the same time!). I know Scooby absolutely had this one off too on the day at a wild price on the exchange which eclipses what I’ve done, but it is all relative of course.


Triumph – Best Odds Guaranteed absolutely bailed me out here, backed Pentland Hills at 9/1 (as had over £5k returns from either Sir Erec or Pic D’Orhy) so thought it worthwhile in a relatively small field to create the book. He won at an SP off 20/1 – definitely a case of it better being lucky than good. Highlights the benefit of BOG though for those of us who still get it!

Gold Cup – Well documented that I was in a good position in this race as I’d backed Presenting Percy at 40/1. Due to multiples a win for Presenting Certainty would have been around £8000 for me, but alas, Al Boum Photo was one I’d also been on-side with 7th May 2018 at 33/1. I’d also backed Anibale Fly at 66/1 in 2018 too – so despite Percy not giving me the big returns, it was a very good race for me – and without a doubt one of the best ante-post betting races of the week.

Martin Pipe – The final ‘good’ ante-post story, Early Doors 17.52/1, Defi Bleu 25/1 won and placed. Also the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP], Dallas Des Pictons would have been over £3000 due to some multiples but again, you don’t complain at a 1-2-3 in any race ante-post!


Honourable mentions to: City Island 16/1 – Similar to the above really, didn’t form a really strong opinion at any stage and City Island wasn’t my first choice but 16/1 winners are welcome!
Altior – The banker of the week and had the 15.5/1 double with Enable in the Arc rolling over again – definitely an angle I’ll be using again through the flat season if I can find horses I really fancy at circa 5/1.
Tiger Roll – 7/1 ante post – should have put more on!


On balance, I don’t think I’ll change my approach, going through “the good” has lifted my spirits a little, I think I’d been taking for granted the successes and dwelling too much on the mistakes. Be very interested in other people’s thoughts though, as ultimately, with the amount I’ve staked, I should be getting to a stage where I either need to reign it in a little (as 21k staked is pushing the limited of what I can physically afford to get on) OR whether I kick on and try and make it a second income officially. I’m £18,636.56 up since 1/1/2015 (When I started recording every bet) which I’m proud of but I need to be making that tax free a year, and it’s been 4 years… so any advice on that front, please don’t be shy!

For what it’s worth on this section, I think the Envoi Allen situation for yourself and Faugheen Machine was just very bad luck. I think things like that will just happen occasionally and we have to not dwell.

I should take my own advice as I ended up down from the festival this year but would’ve been well up if Benie Des Dieux stayed on here feet. That fall haunts me. A really hard one to take. I was at the final hurdle when she came down and literally three seconds before she fell I said aloud ‘just please please don’t fall’. Ecstasy to agony in one hit.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

3. How did the yankees/multiples/ lucky 15's/placepots etc do for all?

Staked £4456.89
Returned £3640.06
Profit -£750.91 loss

Non-runners equated to -£709.65 from multiples. Total Non-runners was -£2585.27

I made a loss on these last year too… I’ve had ante-post multiples (and multiples) since 2014. 2 out of 5 years have been profitable, the other 3 similar losses. This is quite interesting, as on the face of it you’d assume I’d want to knock these on the head… however, I don’t.

I was more selective with them this year, and focussed on a smaller group of horses. Ultimately, I was hit with a few non-runners. Penhill, Cilaos Emery, Samcro(chasing), AND then horses that just didn’t win – Presenting Percy, Sir Erec, Pic D’Orhy, Buveur D’air, Ok Corral and Benie Des Dieux. However, if ANY of those 9 horses had won, I’d have had a minimum of £2000 from, rising to £8000 for some. (Possibly Le Richebourg too, and to some extent Santini!)
It’s a calculated risk that I’ll continue to take, unless someone can point out why that wouldn’t be so sensible?
Cilaos Emery hurt the most in hindsight…and I know I’m not the only one.

I’ve already mentioned my best multiples in the section above and they weren’t ante post… so overall, you wouldn’t say it was a success but I’m reluctant to change. I still don’t ‘chase the huge’ pay-out enough, and got nowhere near with the ones I tried, but I will have a think about that going forward.

I know a lot of people in the game say multiples are just not the way to go antepost. My numbers are with that as I often finish down from them. That’s because I can’t resist the yankees and the Canadians as well as the occasional Heinz/Suoer Heinz. I almost expect to finish down from them every year.

But the thing is, the one year where the right ones win, it’s gonna pay for them for many many years - potentially life changing. I had Canadians of Sire Du Berlais, Klassical Dream, Tiger Roll, Altior and Defi De Seuil over the week. Frustratingly, I never had them five all together though. But one year I will. And the results will be golden.

With you, as someone who covers more horses than me per race, I think the cover multiples are a very decent idea. That trixie with Envoi Allen for example. It’s a smart bet.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

4. What advice or lessons can be learnt from this year (ante post and/or on the day)

I’ve had a few already in the first few questions but some others that are in my head:

Last years favourites/fancied horses – This is an angle I did bring up this year and William Henry did the business in the Coral Cup at 35/1. Next best was Tobefair in the Pertemps, 2nd at 66/1! There was also a huge run from Sam Spinner at 36.75/1 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the Stayers and Melon at 22/1 in the Champion Hurdle.
All of them had either gone off fav or been ‘very strong’ in the market in the same race the year before and the angle is that, whatever made them so strong last year in the market has been somewhat dismissed in their price this year. Melon is perhaps dubious as it was ante post however the others all fitted the pattern strongly. My personal feeling is that when a horse ‘flops’ when well fancied, the connections first thought is to have another crack at it… the pressure is off and they come in under the radar and run a massive race. It isn’t something I did consciously until quite late on but it is definitely an angle I’ll be looking at next year. A horse like Presenting Percy or Laurina probably wouldn’t ever get forgotten about, and it’s hard to know who it’ll be but it’s something I’ll keep my eye on!

Backing during a race – Something I did more than ever this year, best example being Paisley Park in the Stayers Hurdle. As he was about to cross the line I backed hi mand he was sortened within 30 seconds after. The closer to the festival we get, the more bookies suspend betting during the big races, but early in the season this wasn’t happening. I can’t imagine they have the resource or inclination to do it all year round.
Any Race – linked to above, they seem slower updating the “Any Race” markets. We’re good on here at highlighting it when they forget which I hope continues!

Cash-out – This is a huge one, that we’ve all discussed loads but while I can still use it, it’s really valuable. Early in the season we are ahead of the game with non-runners and changes in target and can react quickly. Again, the closer to the festival we get, the sharper the bookies get – but I don’t expect them to be on it 365 days a year! So if we all continue to share as much info as we can that’d be great.

Free bets - I managed to acquire £1633.98 in free bets that I placed on Cheltenham 2019. My return from them was only £691.25 however, the reality is that I accrue them by my normal week to week gambling anyway, and as that’s profitable, I’ll continue to put them on ante post. I used plenty of them to ‘boost’ winnings on potential horses that I felt were too short to back, and judging by the results, none of them really won so I’d have wasted ‘real money’ on them. Others prefer to shoot for the stars with theres and I totally get that, I haven’t really decided what to do yet, if I could keep hold of them until the week (especially Sky ones) it’d be quite a nice amount to put on a horse I fancied nearer the time… but then again, very hard not to back things at 20/1 plus now.

Lots of good points here.

Firstly, the one about fancied runners. I’d never ever thought about that angle but I really like it. I’ve always thought a horse often gets overpriced after one bad festival run. It’s allowed, they aren’t machines. The Tobefair example is a perfect one. If it had got up to chin on of my biggest handicap fancies of the entire week, I’d be looking back on it now fuming that I didn’t cover a horse like TBF at 66/1. As it was, I only covered First Assignment in the Pertemps. Should’ve looked elsewhere possibly for dangers to cover SDB even though he won. I sometimes focus far too much on one horse from a way out and lose my overall outlook of the race. The Martin Pipe being a perfect example. I really ought to have covered early doors. But I was so deep on DDP from 13/2 down, I left it as a one horse race - Stupid decision. Something I majorly regret and will look at for next year.

The Grand Annual being a perfect example of a hype horse. Magic Saint. What on earth was I thinking plowing into him because of Paul Nicholls saying it was a grade 1 horse in a handicap. Lines like that always pull me in. What I should’ve done was had a bit on him when I heard that (sometimes they do win) but then started from scratch after on the race and formed my own opinion. It feels like I wasted a race there.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

5. Your biggest mistakes / The races/horses you got wrong
I didn’t have as many ‘strong’ opinions as last year, so this section SHOULD be shorter than it was last year…

Day One
Apple’s Jade at Cheltenham? I don’t want this to be true, but the evidence is starting to stack up. I just can’t get this horse right. When she’s my banker she gets beat, when I’m wary she absolutely dots in. She’s won enough to be a superstar yet I just can’t seem to get her right the week it matters the most! Already mentioned the mistake in not backing Espoir D’Allen. Overall though the mistake was thinking one of the front 3 had this absolutely sewn up – however I’m not sure if I had another 100 goes I’d have done it any different.
Arkle – Not really a mistake but the race was horrible really, as Cilaos Emery, Le Richebourg and Draconien all not getting there had me in a hole before I started. I did okay but not a great race.
Ultima – Beware The Bear I could not fathom defying last years poor run from a higher mark. He’s just a horse in better form, the change of tactics worked but I couldn’t have had him backed at all. Minella Rubbish was pulled up, which goes down as being wrong and my main fancy 45/1 Coo Star Sivola was pathetic. I expected SO much more. Maybe one that’ll be back next year in better form perhaps and forgotten in the market?

Day Two
Min – Thought he was going for the Ryanair (should have!) and when he was re-routed I put too much faith in him to be 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] to Altior. I’ve moved away from shorter prices really so having money on Min without at the price he was, probably wasn’t worth doing. Wouldn’t have made a huge difference either way but still a mistake.
Tiger Roll – I should have had more on! I should have absolutely walloped the Altior/Tiger double. I didn’t buy in to the ‘Elliott’s aren’t running well’ but I was reluctant to stake any more by this stage and any returns I’d had were just getting withdrawn instantly so I didn’t ‘give it all back’. Ultimately, these two were the most solid bankers of the week and I didn’t make enough of a deal of it. Too busy looking for fancy prices I suppose when sometimes it pays to stick with the obvious.
Bumper/Blue Sari – Backed him win only! Had cashed out Envoi Allen as has been mentioned and although technically I did have EA land the Trixie, it means on my spread sheet, in terms of SINGLES only, I have still NEVER had a return from a horse in the bumper. An incredible hoodoo!

Day Three
Ryanair – Just got this wrong. Thought it was between Min and Monalee. Then got really scared about Road To Respect and had already played Footpad. Had too many backed already and it was one of the worst races of the week for me (despite the DDS/Frodon double)… lucky.
[FONT="]Mares Novice – [/FONT][/B][FONT="]Dubious as a mistake as I had the winner, but didn’t have BOG ante post when it was available elsewhere at very similar prices. A little bit silly although relying on BOG is NOT something I want to be doing anyway.

Day Four
Already mentioned but not backing Minella Indo is still annoying a month later. I fired so many darts at the Albert Bartlett and should have just covered the field by the time we got to the race as I had no strong opinion. Poor return despite Allaho getting placed at 40/1.[/FONT]

With the benefit of hindsight, I too very much regret not backing Aspoir D’Allen. I had Laurina covered at 10/1 and any race, I had Buveir D’Air covered at a fair price and I’d steamed into Apples Jade. With Espoir D’Allen winning all 8 of his starts he finished not injured, the 18/1 was a great price. I should’ve covered it but I too thought it was a 3 horse race really. But that’s an error that I won’t repeat next year - sometimes I need to focus outside the obvious as cover bets. This was a good example of that.

The Albert Bartlett I made a meal out of too. Covered a fair few the night before each way expecting at the very least, a return and ended up with just Allaho placing from that lot. I was on Commander of Fleet for any race qt 14/1 from September so I couldn’t believe my luck seeing him get beat by a 40/1 shot. Another annoying race when I felt it was in hand. Like the RSA. Had the 2nd and 3rd at 16/1 and 10/1 but didn’t cover TOTG because I’d missed the price. Really irrritating.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

6. Other points

Excellent in the Handicaps – Had a pretty good return in the handicaps to be fair after a slow start. Obviously backed multiple runners in each but definitely an area I’m improving in. Had the 1-2 in the Close Brothers, the 1-2-3-4 in the Coral Cup, the 1-2-3 in the Fred Winter, The 1-2-5 in the Pertemps, the ‘lucky’ double with the winner and 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in the Brown Plate with the winner of the Kim Muir, the 2-3 in the Kim Muir as well, the 1-2-3-4 in the County and the 1-2-3-5 in the Martin Pipe!
Overall for the handicaps finished with a net profit of £1954.16 which is 82.45% of my overall profit

Not enough time dedicated to watching video form - This year was a strange year, the weather (no rain) affected pretty much every yard and horse, as well as the equine flu outbreak that is an anomaly too but I didn’t watch as much racing as I normally do. Would be foolish to assume a drop in ROI is not somehow linked to the fact I spent too much time chatting about horses on here without watching the races back more than once!

No 100/1 winners – the elusive 3 figure winner to be tipped on here is evading me – but the search for the next Rawnaq/Saint Calvados goes on [FONT=&]��[/FONT]

Quiet recently – Mayo mentioned I’d been a bit quiet and not on here as often since the festival, reason being…. This years Cheltenham returns have gbeen spent now on applying for our first mortgage, (as we’ve been renting together for 5 years) and part of that involves bank statements being checked and mine are page after page of deposits and withdrawals, so as well as having to display all my spreadsheets and workings as proof that I’m not a complete gambling degenerate I had to show that I can stop whenever I want to…so logging in here wouldn’t have helped me do that. Fortunately, that’s all now sorted and I will be back to normal.

DONE. If you take the time to read it, 1. Get a life and 2. Thank-you – and as I said at the start, I look forward to hearing about your own analysis’ and welcome any questions or advice!

**I exceeded the 20,000 word limit hence the broken down posts** Hahaha

I too did alright in the handicaps but should lay off more in these. Had A Plus Tate but not at 15/2 despite putting him up on here a few days before at that price. Had Dallas Des Pictons at 13/2, went off 5/2. Second. But because it had been a tough week beforehand, I never laid it off. Stupid. Should’ve laid Delta work off at 16s as well really.

On the whole though, I think the handicaps at Cheltenham are definitely profitable. There’s money to be made from them. The Ultima I really should’ve come out well up from. Had Up For Review but after BTB won at Cheltenham after the change of tactics, and that I backed him each way when fourth in the race in 2017, he was one I should’ve backed for it at something like 25/1 a fortnight beforehand. Silly.

 

[The King Pimm]

Jono - with regards to the B365 cash out facility, I think it’s brilliant and a major factor in why I bet with them so much. My issue at this year’s Festival was that I cashed out too early on a number of bets to ensure I had most of my money back before the Friday. I did the same thing in 2018 when I should have been a bit tougher and let them ride. I’m sure they’ll be a few twitchy bum moment next year and I’ll be moaning afterwards I bottled it again!! :highly_amused:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Brilliant post Kev. Loved reading that and yours King Pimm. I'll dip in and out probably with some bits and then some analysis of my own (will be far less in-depth!) but the first thought on the handicaps...



I know a lot of people see them as mug bets but have you / thought of placing exactas / trifectas etc? Obviously not an antepost option but just looking through those results, and knowing that you have also hit the 1-2-3's in previous festivals (though maybe not as many)

Close Brothers 1-2 Exacta paid £32.30
Coral Cup 1-2-3-4 Trifecta paid £10,893
Fred Winter 1-2-3 Trifecta paid £410.19
Pertemps 1-2 Exacta paid £2,446.82
County 1-2-3-4 Trifecta paid £3,060.49
Martin Pipe 1-2-3 Trifecta paid £256.98

To a £1 stake.

The amount of horses you had backed in each race may not make it worthwhile (for example if you had 8 runners backed, trying to hit the 1-2-3 would cover 56 combinations, 10 backed 120) but the returns are generally strong and favourable and with the kind of record you have had in the handicaps over the last few seasons, could be worthwhile?

A type of bet I rarely utilise (every year I see the returns, make a note for the next year and forget) but i don't see them much worse than multiples really in the right circumstances. Even the likes of a Early Doors / DDP (24/1) and A Plus Tard / Tower Bridge (31/1) are strong odds for what were fairly obvious and short odd 1-2's

I do the 'muggy' f/c & t/c in pretty much all the handicaps, and my luck was in this year as I also done the Mares Novice hurdle, I couldn't leave all them big priced Mullins runners to just go unbacked, and whilst I landed an incredibly generous forecast I feel a little bit relieved that Tintangle grabbed 3rd as I had Black Tears as one I had backed in a single but not added to the f/c & t/c and that would have paid extremely well!

I landed 2 other f/c's but no more t/c's during the festival and it is fair to say I would have ended down a fair bit had I not landed that Mares Novice one. However that won't stop me doing them for a bit of fun.

 

[mayo]

Jono - with regards to the B365 cash out facility, I think it’s brilliant and a major factor in why I bet with them so much. My issue at this year’s Festival was that I cashed out too early on a number of bets to ensure I had most of my money back before the Friday. I did the same thing in 2018 when I should have been a bit tougher and let them ride. I’m sure they’ll be a few twitchy bum moment next year and I’ll be moaning afterwards I bottled it again!! :highly_amused:

I lost my bottle and did this too.

The one thing I say every year when I read these is that I must keep better records.

The other note to self is to leave the Triumph and Bumper alone.

I did mainly leave the handicaps to NRNB which helped me overall.

I must have a deeper look at when my good bets were struck - there must be some sweet spot for finding value.

 

[Kevloaf]

Hi Kev - great post. I’ve a few questions and points I’ll make. My own analysis for my festival will come after the jumps season ends so probably in two or three weeks time.

Firstly, whilst the ROI didn’t improve again, it’s still at a very decent level which I’m sure all of us would be pleased with.. Do you set an amount you want to win, as in a percentage target? I see you said you were aiming to bet £15k but bet 20k. Would you say because your stake rose from £10 to £20 for a single point, and therefore had a fair bit more on every race, you were inclined to cover more horses because of the worry of losing that higher amount on a race? Therefore your ROI dropped? Do you see what I mean - I’m not sure I’ve explained it too well.

Thanks MoM.

Yes Isee what you're asking.

Erm, no I don't think I bet more because of the amount staked - I am quite good at thinking in 'points' so the total stake and each race, and horse are just 'pts' to me - and my aim is to make as many 'pts' as possible...and then when I withdraw it all I start thinking of it like real money again.

If someone said to me if I don't bet for 9 months they'll give me £20k in cash I'd be pretty likely to take it - so I think of it in terms of 'small gains' rather than the whole amount.


That said, putting £20 per point instead of £10 did lend itself to me going "over-budget" - - I was actually behind year-on-year until after Christmas I think... I'm still inclined to blame the lack of real strong opinions (due to lack of good horses/form on show) than my own stake.

Hope that answers?

 

[Kevloaf]

For what it’s worth on this section, I think the Envoi Allen situation for yourself and Faugheen Machine was just very bad luck. I think things like that will just happen occasionally and we have to not dwell.

I should take my own advice as I ended up down from the festival this year but would’ve been well up if Benie Des Dieux stayed on here feet. That fall haunts me. A really hard one to take. I was at the final hurdle when she came down and literally three seconds before she fell I said aloud ‘just please please don’t fall’. Ecstasy to agony in one hit.

A feeling many can relate to if they witnessed the Annie Power fall too.

I have given some thought to the 'one horse week' - (Where one horse winning would make the whole week profitable)... I can see positives and negatives... I don't think I'd ever PLAN for it, unless I was absolutely sold on a horse. I haven't been since Frankel though so the bar is pretty high. Also, I'd need to win 20k+ from a single horse which isn't my style either really - I do spread the risk around. (I know BDD isn't exactly the same in this situation for you, I've digressed)

I know a lot of people in the game say multiples are just not the way to go antepost. My numbers are with that as I often finish down from them. That’s because I can’t resist the yankees and the Canadians as well as the occasional Heinz/Suoer Heinz. I almost expect to finish down from them every year.

But the thing is, the one year where the right ones win, it’s gonna pay for them for many many years - potentially life changing. I had Canadians of Sire Du Berlais, Klassical Dream, Tiger Roll, Altior and Defi De Seuil over the week. Frustratingly, I never had them five all together though. But one year I will. And the results will be golden.

With you, as someone who covers more horses than me per race, I think the cover multiples are a very decent idea. That trixie with Envoi Allen for example. It’s a smart bet.

Thanks, I suppose it's hard to quantify exactly how 'smart' the bet is... as it's just effectively arbing and it takes away from finding the winners. It's a different skill to be fair.

I had a lot of help/guidance from some of the long term posters on this when I joined a few years back

 

[Kevloaf]

Lots of good points here.

Firstly, the one about fancied runners. I’d never ever thought about that angle but I really like it. I’ve always thought a horse often gets overpriced after one bad festival run. It’s allowed, they aren’t machines. The Tobefair example is a perfect one. If it had got up to chin on of my biggest handicap fancies of the entire week, I’d be looking back on it now fuming that I didn’t cover a horse like TBF at 66/1. As it was, I only covered First Assignment in the Pertemps. Should’ve looked elsewhere possibly for dangers to cover SDB even though he won. I sometimes focus far too much on one horse from a way out and lose my overall outlook of the race. The Martin Pipe being a perfect example. I really ought to have covered early doors. But I was so deep on DDP from 13/2 down, I left it as a one horse race - Stupid decision. Something I majorly regret and will look at for next year.

The Grand Annual being a perfect example of a hype horse. Magic Saint. What on earth was I thinking plowing into him because of Paul Nicholls saying it was a grade 1 horse in a handicap. Lines like that always pull me in. What I should’ve done was had a bit on him when I heard that (sometimes they do win) but then started from scratch after on the race and formed my own opinion. It feels like I wasted a race there.

I think a lot of the handicaps come down to what you consider value. Magic Saint was easy for me to avoid, as absolutely nobody (bookies being the main ones) missed it. If anyone looked at what he, or Give Me A Copper had actully achieved they'd be no where near favourites. Obviously though, form isn't the only thing to go on but avoiding hype horses in general, in any race is beneficial, as the value / juice in the price or however you want to say it, is gone.

I covered Magic Saint and Give Me A Copper though in multiples... (the same ones to be fair) - only very speculative for less than £10 with plenty of the other Nicholls horses just in case the type of festival that happened to Nicky a few years back happened. Essentially I bought in to the Nicholls hype, as he was THE dominant force when I got in to the sport so I have a soft spot.

With the benefit of hindsight, I too very much regret not backing Aspoir D’Allen. I had Laurina covered at 10/1 and any race, I had Buveir D’Air covered at a fair price and I’d steamed into Apples Jade. With Espoir D’Allen winning all 8 of his starts he finished not injured, the 18/1 was a great price. I should’ve covered it but I too thought it was a 3 horse race really. But that’s an error that I won’t repeat next year - sometimes I need to focus outside the obvious as cover bets. This was a good example of that.

The Albert Bartlett I made a meal out of too. Covered a fair few the night before each way expecting at the very least, a return and ended up with just Allaho placing from that lot. I was on Commander of Fleet for any race qt 14/1 from September so I couldn’t believe my luck seeing him get beat by a 40/1 shot. Another annoying race when I felt it was in hand. Like the RSA. Had the 2nd and 3rd at 16/1 and 10/1 but didn’t cover TOTG because I’d missed the price. Really irrritating.

Do you think if we did take the 'safe option' though, and covered more (or even made a book for the race) it's taking the gamble out of it?

It effectively just becomes a game of me trying to beat the market SP and my own opinions out of it.... I can't tell whether I'm justifying having an opinion in the race even though it's wrong OR I'm just ignoring the fact I made a poor punting decision.

 

[Kevloaf]

Jono -

1. Superb on the ROI, and the last 4 years worth is fantastic to be at that level, consistantly. As you know, we have a different betting approach, but for anyone that has the more realistic approach to ante-post punting they really could and should be reading and understanding why you pick the horses you do, because you don't have numbers like that without being VERY shrewd. Away from Cheltenham I have a very similar approach too - hopefully I can convince you to see the festival 'my way' and we can find a balance between the two

2. Yeah, stop messing about and get yourself back on here more regularly next season. I'm determined to get you in to the flat too

3. Similar to what MoM has said as well, nicely put - 'tipping point' horses. Was Penhill another for you this year?

4. Loads of good points - On taking Gordon at his word trhough.... EA was bad, but he also ruled out Apple's Jade in the CH at one point. It didn't affect any of us but he did catogorically say she'd go for the Mares, or maybe the stayers. Ultimately I don't have a problem, he's only answering questions asked...but in terms of giving him more of a 'free-pass' than we give Willie, no way for me. They're all the same (which I don't have a problem with) but fool me once....

5. Interesting that you think Sire Du Berlais is a mistake. Despite winning, the analysis charlie did pre-Cheltenham about JP horses, favourites etc made him an obvious one to avoid. I wasn't strong enough to take it on board and did back him late on as I said, but I think I got lucky rather than that being good. I missed the prices that plenty got, Quevega springs to mind but I know there were others.... and MOST of the time, I am the one on the value... Fear Of Missing Out is the reason I backed SDB, which is not a sensible strategy. It definitely was an obvious plot, but can we honestly say 6/1 was value even the night before? I'm not so sure... especially when your other point about rules from last year would have landed you the 2nd at 66/1 e/w which more than pays its way?

On the 4 miler, I'd say that was more unlucky than a point to change. I gave Le Breuil hardly any chance at all, but looked at what I'd already backed and thought I'd be stupid not to back him (similar thought process to Espoir D'allen in the CH) obviously one went right, the other went wrong...BUT it isn't always easy to make the call, especially when you feel you have the race by the balls.

Back to 2. - Very interesting on the E/W - I know this splits opinion. I love an E/W bet at 16/1 or bigger. The closer we get, the lower the odds and I'll go e/w (8/1) - on the day I'd take 4/1 e/w depending on the situation.

My advice - I think if you put the effort in to the flat, I am convinced you'd make steady profit on average each weekend, which creates the additional funds. I then focus them in to the festival ante post and that's grown to allow me to get to the staking I am at. A £20 ew bet on Cheltenham doesn't hurt as much if you've just had a 8/1 winner £20 on the flat etc....

I wouldn't increase the number of runners for next season... what you're doing works really well. If you doubled your stake it'd be the fastest way to increasing profit rather than changing the approach.