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Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
  • Start date Start date
So if this rain continues & the ground comes up soft or worse what antipost bets can we rip up & what antipost bets start to look a lot better.. A lot of horses won the past few years because the ground was perfect for them GS and better, but if the ground is soft I can see different results this year..

The two that springs to mind if it is soft

UDS will go off a lot shorter

Bite Mite will struggle against the mudlarks

I am sure a lot of other horses will be effected, I know about 50% of mine will be.

Whats your best & worst antipost slip if it stays soft or even heavy.
 
I can honestly say that I looked at a long range weather forecast after the last meeting at Cheltenham when it was described as heavy going. It has been very accurate. I selected all of my antepost horses with a preference for soft ground. It was a gamble that appears will pay off, with any luck . Apart from about 4 horses that are N/R s in my Multi folds and exotics I have thankfully escaped most of the carnage this time. Which is a welcome change after the past few years.
 
They have spent fortunes on drainage at Cheltenham and the benefits are usually underestimated, but the water table must be a foot higher than normal for this time of year so soft, or even heavy, has to be a possibility. In that event I think the most worthless slip I have will be Supasundae at 16's, I think a few will handle it better than him, and my best UDS at 5's, I like that one anyway
 
I keep being told it's either going to be fine, or it's a mudbath.

Can't help but feel there's a small amount of confirmation bias going on!
 
Any one know what time the 6 day declarations start to appear? And if it is today?
 
Only a few days ago it said it would be lashing down on Friday. Now its forecast no rain and sunny and breezy!

Very little rain forecast for the next three days... and little point looking at a forecast much longer term than that. Will be good to soft by Saturday for sure.
 
robith said:
I keep being told it's either going to be fine, or it's a mudbath.

Can't help but feel there's a small amount of confirmation bias going on!
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I do not think its going to be a mud bath, but with the amount of rain the course will get Friday night & Saturday day it's unlike to dry out any more that what it is now, at the moment its soft most places and G/S near the centre..
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Only a few days ago it said it would be lashing down on Friday. Now its forecast no rain and sunny and breezy!

Very little rain forecast for the next three days... and little point looking at a forecast much longer term than that. Will be good to soft by Saturday for sure.
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Where did you see that Can't? most forecast that I have seen said it will be pouring down.. hope your weather predictions are better than the ones I look at..
 
I've just checked 4 weather websites and they all say different....but it's fine we can keep guessing :highly_amused::highly_amused:
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I've just checked 4 weather websites and they all say different....but it's fine we can keep guessing :highly_amused::highly_amused:
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I'm just going to pitch a tent up in the middle of the course Friday night and report back to everyone Saturday lunch time. I'm sure Simon Claisse won't mind
 
Sirbetalot said:
I'm just going to pitch a tent up in the middle of the course Friday night and report back to everyone Saturday lunch time. I'm sure Simon Claisse won't mind
Click to expand...

Haha don't forget your 'going' stick!
 
As we get into these days before the festival we might become a little stressed. I've recently started a podcast about rugby, so not horse racing, but I'd love to share it - wasn't sure where. Mods and OV - would that be ok?
 
Apparently I going camping this weekend to get over the stress :)..

But I totally agree, with the weather, non runner, switches and so on this Antipost stuff can get a bit much, I seem to pop on here not to get tips or advice anymore but to see who's going to get F@!KED today.. So something other than racing for a few days could settle the nerves..

No a massive rugby fan but still would like to watch it, if thats what you do with podcasts? Sorry I'm old!!
 
We had a short debate earlier about betting strategy. It seemed I was in a small minority in just trying to find the winner rather than trying to balance the books on every race. Prior to kick-off it would be interesting to know the total number of horses backed. Thus far I have 49 including 11 non-runners, 6 of which were not NRNB. That non-runner situation is better than most previous years but the potential for a soft ground Festival has made things more difficult.

Champion Chase and Cross Country are the two races I have nothing.
 
My strategy is based around the fact that I love the sport and watching horse racing. I found that my love of the sport was becoming tainted by whether I won or lost on a particular race, so in order to enjoy the festival to its fullest I started betting big on ante post. I bet about 3000 pts each year, and have never had less than that amount back. Best return was almost double, average return about 4000 pts. I would hope to be closer double for this year but we shall see - Samcro and Didtheyleaveuoutto would underpin a few multiples so if they go in will definitely be closer to double pts staked. I tend to win on about 20 of the 28 races.

I have around 220 horses backed this year, 40ish non runners of which the majority weren't NRNB. I have at least 3 horses in every race now heading into next week
 
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