At 9 years old, very unlikely he has improved, considerably at least. But the Gold Cup picture has never looked more open, with a fav and second fav who still have a lot of questions to answer in my opinion. Guaranteed to stay the trip, jumps well, he may be one of the few horses out there who could be able to go with Might Bite and not implode, any difference in class could go out the window once they reach the hill. If he runs his race, very entitled to nab a place like Minella Rocco and NR last year, beyond that anything could happen.
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Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets
- Thread starter Istabraq
- Start date
Can't agree with that I'm afraid, Minella Rocco was sent off 18/1 last year with form that read a lot worse. Weaker renewal of course, but I have a feeling one or two big names have yet to fall by the wayside.
The prices in the morning / day before are extremely competative.
25s- 33s 4 places would be my guess.
I'd be completely shocked if 20s with 4 places wouldnt be available .
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Half of them will go 4 places, one of two of the gimmick bookies might go 5 places and let you have a quid on.
You need to protect your accs fellas, offers during the week are worth taking.
I think it's the Mares hurdle that regularly has 24 or so runners yet Paddy Power, Sid James and a few others I can't remember still pay 1,2,3 fifth the odds.
Conversely others go 1,2,3,4 and pay quarter the odds.
Can make a huge difference to someones week....
You need to protect your accs fellas, offers during the week are worth taking.
I think it's the Mares hurdle that regularly has 24 or so runners yet Paddy Power, Sid James and a few others I can't remember still pay 1,2,3 fifth the odds.
Conversely others go 1,2,3,4 and pay quarter the odds.
Can make a huge difference to someones week....
Faugheen_Machine
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I hope you're right and he is 33/1 the day before.
Hes an RSA winner who doesn't have much to find with the leading contenders. All of his races since the Hennessy have been with the Grand National in mind and he hasn't really been contesting typical Gold Cup trials.
Hes an RSA winner who doesn't have much to find with the leading contenders. All of his races since the Hennessy have been with the Grand National in mind and he hasn't really been contesting typical Gold Cup trials.
First point is true, but Blaklion is a horse the public seem to be plenty taken with. Sent off fav for the National, backed like defeat was out of the question for the Becher, and the vibes on twitter are that many see him as an outside chance for the GC. Don't think Blaklion will be a forgotten horse come Gold Cup day, unlike Minella Rocco was. Will be interesting to see how long the 40/1 with Hills lasts.
My own estimation would be SP of around 12/1, less if a few of those prominent in the market don't make it. Whether there will be a huge difference between his SP and opening price is another matter, but personally I can't see it being 20/1.
I backed myself and if I'm honest I think if you ran it 100 times he stil wouldn't have won it . I thought it was a nice ride he put him to sleep and left it late, if he was good enough he would have one ." Jacob on serge"
After a bit of consideration, decided to have 5 pts on the Day 1 treble at (a boosted) 9.04/1 with WH on Footpad, Buveur D'air, Apple's Jade. In short, the reason being I can see this being less than half those odds on the day (around 7/2?)
Worst case scenario - one of them gets injured. (I can live with that risk as its now after New Year with these particular horses who haven't given me any cause for concern previously) Standard ante-post risk.
Footpad -
Best case scenario, Footpad beats Petit Mouchoir at Leopardstown and goes odds on for the Arkle. (Evens at best?) Couldn't be convinced the Irish novice chasers are ahead of the British ones BUT I'd be confident!
Worst case scenario, Petit Mouchoir beats Footpad, left with a lively chance still but at a bigger price than he is now. Wouldn't expect PM to beat Footpad on his return though...
Buveur D'air -
Best case scenario is that Faugheen doesn't make it and Yorkhill stays over fences. Couldn't see BVD any bigger than 1/3.
Worst case scenario is that Faugheen OR Yorkhill put in an incredible performance prior to the day.. but even then I can't see bookies pushing BVD's price out. They may get closer in the betting, but I still think BVD would beat either now based on their respective seasons so far and I'm not worried about Melon or anything below.
Apple's Jade -
I have no doubts she will win, regardless of what turns up. VVM and Limini are yet to run and I can't imagine ANY performance that they have that would push Apple's Jade's price out.
AJ for me is better this year than last year, and her form last year was betting than VVM's, Limini's or Let's Dance's anyway.
Pleased that she is the 3rd leg. I'd have her the shortest of the lot and think if it was NRNB she'd be 1/2.
Worst case scenario - one of them gets injured. (I can live with that risk as its now after New Year with these particular horses who haven't given me any cause for concern previously) Standard ante-post risk.
Footpad -
Best case scenario, Footpad beats Petit Mouchoir at Leopardstown and goes odds on for the Arkle. (Evens at best?) Couldn't be convinced the Irish novice chasers are ahead of the British ones BUT I'd be confident!
Worst case scenario, Petit Mouchoir beats Footpad, left with a lively chance still but at a bigger price than he is now. Wouldn't expect PM to beat Footpad on his return though...
Buveur D'air -
Best case scenario is that Faugheen doesn't make it and Yorkhill stays over fences. Couldn't see BVD any bigger than 1/3.
Worst case scenario is that Faugheen OR Yorkhill put in an incredible performance prior to the day.. but even then I can't see bookies pushing BVD's price out. They may get closer in the betting, but I still think BVD would beat either now based on their respective seasons so far and I'm not worried about Melon or anything below.
Apple's Jade -
I have no doubts she will win, regardless of what turns up. VVM and Limini are yet to run and I can't imagine ANY performance that they have that would push Apple's Jade's price out.
AJ for me is better this year than last year, and her form last year was betting than VVM's, Limini's or Let's Dance's anyway.
Pleased that she is the 3rd leg. I'd have her the shortest of the lot and think if it was NRNB she'd be 1/2.
ryanh97
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Geordieboy83
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I placed this treble a while back, I believe it is one of my strongest looking bets of all my Ante-post! Well fingers crossed
I did at 7/1, 7/2 and 11/4 so it's worth 200 pts now between those two trebles :triumphant: fingers crossed
Geordieboy83
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Cracking prices Kev, I managed to get 5/1, 7/2 and 7/4. Happy enough though. Just hope all is well and at least get a run for the money!
Thanks. I put a line through anything pre Christmas where I can and just look at things from a fresh view ... so even though I'd placed the same bet, I still think the treble is worthwhile now .... otherwise I might limit my potential.
Not a hard and fast rule though!
jono
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I've also got 5pts on the treble at the current prices - well done to everyone who has bigger - top stuff :encouragement:
Very little can be said against the bet and bar Cause of Causes they do look like 3 of the best chances at the festival right now
Very little can be said against the bet and bar Cause of Causes they do look like 3 of the best chances at the festival right now
600 pts total stake now.
74 pts Non Runners (although Douvan might resurrect 10 of those :highly_amused::highly_amused::highly_amused
Just looking at this time last year - if I hadn't placed another bet, I'd have still had 7 winners and 100 pts profit. Let's hope my position for 2018 is better than it was last year, as I'd staked 287 pts this time last year
74 pts Non Runners (although Douvan might resurrect 10 of those :highly_amused::highly_amused::highly_amused
Just looking at this time last year - if I hadn't placed another bet, I'd have still had 7 winners and 100 pts profit. Let's hope my position for 2018 is better than it was last year, as I'd staked 287 pts this time last year
Rhinestone_Cowboy
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Hills are now saying NRNB all races at the Festival, at a quick glance not sure how much they have changed their prices...ITCF Supreme 10/1, Apples Jade Mares 11/10, Elegant Escape NH 14/1
Not much by the looks of it!
Hang on ...... if they don't MISS the festival ... but run in a different race, do you lose your money?
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paz247
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Is it just in shops nrnb with Hills? Nothing on website or oddschecker to suggest all races are now NrNb
Surely not???? Thats financial suicide.
Is that the case and In shops? Seems way to good to be true. On The fred winter and triumph alone, I could retire a happy man.
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Rhinestone_Cowboy
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It was clearly advertised on the website this morning that all races would be money back if the horse didn't run at the Festival. However it didn't say this on the race pages or on betslip and I can no longer see it on the website... Very odd. Kev you saw it advertised right?