For the sake of conversation -
I actually think it's a tough call, though I would side with Douvan - less risk involved (in terms of the horses versatility, settling etc) and I do think he is the most talented horse in the yard. However if you side with Douvan for the Gold Cup you're also taking plenty of risk? He has none of the quirks of Yorkhill but if you look at a few factors playing devils advocate:
Distance - never raced beyond 17F so the 26.5F of the Gold Cup is a big question mark for him. He settles very well in his races, can be ridden in almost anyway and does look like he'll be able to at least cope with 2m4 - 3m but we're only basing that as well on the connections talk aren't we? Right now he's got as many questions marks with the distance as Yorkhill has who has raced over the middle distance at least.
The worry for me with Yorkhill would be that he would pull his way out of contention. Best performance was at Chelt, when covered up, and they'll potentially go very quick which could suit, but Douvan is just much more straight forward and as both are unproven, based purely on how well they settle, I'd pick Douvan over Yorkhill.
Form - That constant beating of Sizing John doesn't look bad now hey! :highly_amused: However if you watched all of Douvan's races without any opinion from connections about him/how good he could be or idea on who trained him etc - would he look the best horse Willie has ever trained? A victim of not having the quality of opposition to show him at his best of course but I'm not sure you would - his jumping isn't foot perfect that's for sure. Compare him to say some of the performances Vautour put in? That's not meant to be bashing the horse - again I think he is likely to be right up there - just that again we are basing how good he is at least on some part to how highly connections rate him and him being there best ever. You have to take that onboard and it does mean something when the likes of Willie, Ruby etc say that but is it no different to Ruby saying Yorkhill is all over a Gold Cup Horse?
I'd think Douvan was closer to being a star than I would Yorkhill. Without the comments about Yorkhill, has he actually done anything impressively? He keeps getting a brilliant ride... that to me isn't the same as having great form. His form isn't bad, but I don't think getting beaten by R2R (no matter how much he was closing, or giving away this mythical an ultimately very dangerous to gift 30 lengths that keeps getting branded around).... the facts are, on form, Yorkhill has done nothing other than prove he's better than Top Notch over 2m4f? - Douvan has the extra year, and it isn't fair to say beating SJ is stronger, as SJ might be a stone better over 3m than he was over 2... but even so, I hadn't seen Douvan off the bridle yet.... he is just totally opposite and watching without knowledge of connections I am convinced I would think Douvan was a better horse.
Track - he would have won the Queen Mother without the injury i'm not for anyway saying otherwise but it's hard to argue against the fact that his least impressive (if you can call them that - the time of his Arkle win was very good) have been at the track. Certainly not an issue in my eyes or a negative but just comparing against Yorkhill - Yorkhill has shown his very best form at the track both years at the festival, importantly settling and jumping the best he has ever done.
Don't disagree with that, but as you say, certainly not a worry at this stage. Even Yorkhill's best performance wasn't better than Douvan's though... and at this stage beating SJ further than Yorkhill beat Top Notch makes Douvan's Chelt performance better? Would have to be another tick
True and the way Bellshill has progressed it doesn't look great on Yorkhill however not all horses will look a superstar straight away and especially in their novice hurdle season - the rate of improvement can vary. By the time of the festival '16 - wasn't it clear cut Yorkhill was a cut above Bellshill hence he took in the Neptune where connections were hugely confident and Bellshill made way as second string in the Supreme? Not quite the same but - the start of the 2014 Allez Colombieres was the main Ricci horse and the number one hype horse. Unfortunately we'll never know how good he was and you never know now he could have been the best ever but without barely a mention of him whilst AC was around (unless I am wrong here but I don't remember hearing about him at the time) - it was only after his demise that Douvan came on the scene as was then starting to get talked up so highly?
Yeh it was "clear cut" after Bellshill flopped in Ireland behind the JP owned horse for Mullins (Bleu Et Rouge maybe?) ... but before that I am convinced. I know it can change, but the contrast between the two is stark? They've never not said Douvan is anything but potentially very special... I do remember being slightly negative on the chances of Vautour (would it have been Vautour?) when they had the identikit replacement as the best novice when AC went wrong... but look how that turned out! Again, between the two, despite it not being a major factor or of any HUGE importance, Douvan again gets the tick.
Might Bite would be my pick out of all three, right now if you put a gun to my head (I still think either the 40/1 Triple Crown or backing each race straight after each race is a good price). If all three were campaigned for the GC though, all looked to get 3miles and on form i'd probably side with Douvan though
and in the end we agree, so I've wasted 15 minutes haha.
I am definitely warming to the idea of Our Duke being a huge contender. If Thistlecrack can come back and we don't get half the bad luck we had this year, this could be a mega race. Absolutely mega.
