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Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets

FM - Good, I'm on now. Probably be the first man to strike it rich listening to a jockey, especially the main man Ruby, but I'll keep dreaming :)

I agree with you in the main cwright, however my own strategy means I do find that being on a horse at a bigger price, if it turns up on the day, affords me plenty of options to make as many races as possible profitable. As I mentioned in the WH thread, I'm not shy of backing more than one and if I'd have been on Min at 50s. I am sure I'd have made more than I did on that particular race... so although 'a winner is a winner' is true, getting a nice ante post price (in my mind) gives me more bullets to nail that winner
 
Altior winning would more than cover all of your (faugheen & jono) ante post bets so far. Great position to be in... in my opinion at least!

I've loaded up my spread sheet and got 201 pts staked. Done a few more 'each way' singles that I ever have before which accounrs for plenty. (Will assess after the festival if that has worked or not) and got 61 pts in doubles/trebles/yankees.

Obviously not going to post all 201 pts worth because no-one will care :highly_amused: however:

Start with the Non Runners...
Barters Hill - Any race / RSA 8 pts @ 14's-25s
Vautour - Any Race - 5 pts @ 7/2
Sprinter Sacre - CC 2.5 pts EW @ 5/1

That is actually all of them so not bad in hindsight, however, a pretty gross two week period :grumpy: - A bit embarrassed about the SS bet, but on the day I'd have been looking at either the defending champ as an each way shot to nothing against Douvan or without Douvan a lovely spot?.... was more a heart ruling the head moment when I placed it I think!

Forgot to add this absolute crash of a bet... Apples Jade - Champion Hurdle 3 pts EW :mad:

So 24 pts lost to the bookies so far :triumphant:

Biggest shorteners
Cameila De Cotte - Mares Novice 1 pt EW @ 33/1
UKWIMH - World Hurdle 1 pt EW @ 25/1
Thistlecrack - Gold Cup 5 pts @ 8/1
Jenkins - Supreme 1 pt EW @ 20/1
Faugheen - World Hurdle 1 pt @ 10/1

No other real steamers in the market that I've got in singles at the moment... Melon I guess, on at 20 and in to 14 without running is potentially good ... Limini @ 10s in the mares hurdle shortened a bit. Invitiation Only @ 16s Neptune and 10s any race...

Some of the ones I like
Altior - Arkle 8.5 pts @ 5/1
Vroum Vroum Mag - Any Race 8 pts @ 11/4
Annie Power - Any Race 4 pts @ 5/2
Death Duty - Any Race 1 pt @ 14/1
Rawnaq - World Hurdle 2 pts EW @ 33/1

Explored the ANy Race market more than ever before and happy with the prices on VVM and DD for sure! Altior is (just about) my biggest single stake but he is in a few multiples too...


"Exciting" multiples
Annie (CH) / Douvan (CC) / Faugheen (WH) 1 pt @ 99/1
Altior(Arkle)/Douvan 4 pts at 11/1
Min/Yorkhill(JLT) - 1.5 pts EW @ 61/1
Altior/Douvan/Yorkhill(JLT) - 1 pt @ 83/1
Altior/Yorkhill - 1.5 pts EW @ 43/1

Don't expect Faugheen in the WH but if things played out that way I'd be excited... A big win for Altior would be great on the first day but having the double with Douvan would get me very excited... waiting on that with a likely odds on shot would be brilliant! (no where near that price the double now)
Yorkhill not going chasing, and not going for the JLT will kill off a few, but as that is still a possibility, I'll keep it as "exciting"...
 
Like a lot of those Kev, Refreshing to see that I've backed quite a few of those myself.

Fingers crossed the cards fall right mate!

The next 4-5 weeks gonna be a market maker or breaker for a lot of peoples value bets!

Anybody got any good looking trixies or yankees at the current odds?
 
Your braver than me kev!!! I keep 100% accurate records on spreadsheets but havent dared do the total column yet!!!!! Maybe in Feb!!
 
Haha, thanks guys. I know a lot will go wrong before then, but if I can come out of the week with as many pts as I had on ante-post, it'll feel like a huge win even if I break even... that combined with the pure love and enjoyment from watching it too is keeping it ''justified' at the moment. Obviously crippling losses could affect my methods in years to come but it is all a learning curve!

Get it totted up Billy... what harm can it do *gulp* ... I have never ever had more ante post on that I'd stake at the festival "on the day" but I can't imagine that will be the case this year. Certainly feel I'd struggle to be 'up' anyway
 
Nice bets there Kev. I have to admit I was looking forward to seeing yours - a lot to like in there.

So if Jenkins wins the Supreme, then Altior wins the Arkle we'll all be in flying! :triumphant:

(...then probably have our accounts closed!!)

I'm yet to place any multiples/yankees/trixies bar the few doubles mentioned - I generally try and place them around or after Christmas time when things are often a little clearer regarding targets and potential opposition myself. Also keen on doing lucky15's with the triple bonus for a winner.

In terms of placing the bets - what's everyones preferred method? Online? In Shops? Different for singles vs multi's? Luckily i'm ok with most bookies bar Ladbrokes who I can no longer get a penny on. I'm always slighty worried IF I was to have a really good year antepost wise as good as it'll be I may struggle to get on bets online. Tempted to start placing some in shops when I can.
 
I'm going through the card on the Tuesday:
Jenkins, Altior, Holywell, Annie Power, Vroum Vroum Mag, Champers On Ice, Thompas Crapper :highly_amused:

I haven't ever done trixie's or lucky 15s on Cheltenham before, certainly not ante post HOWEVER I started using them on the flat this season and I've had some really nice wins that have helped me pile so much in to Cheltenham so that IS going to change. I will also be waiting until targets become clear though before having anything other than 'speculative guesswork' multiples on...

In terms of placing bets, I am just online and I think the amount I am placing ante post will flag me as a mug punter so I'm not too worried yet. From what I gather the amount of money ante post doesn't affect anywhere near as much as people trying to place bets the night before when markets first go up and so on...?
 
Some great bets Kev - it looks like we are all thinking along the same lines on the Tuesday.

Most of my bets are done online and I also think my scattergun approach to multiples and festival races in general helps keep some of my accounts open.

In terms of Trixie's, Yankees etc. I do these for Cheltenham from an early stage. My approach is to try and combine Saturday horses with Cheltenham horses. It's worked well in the past so I kind of stick to what works.

I never do lucky 15's because the singles at pretty worthless on their own, I'd rather increase my stake and place a yankee instead.
 
Do you mean back a horse for the weekend in with an ante part cheltenham horse?
 
Yeah, I do one most weekends. I had a right lift a couple of years ago - had the autumn double in a treble with Faugheen in his champion hurdle year.

Its hard to place a Cheltenham ante post yankee this far in advance and have them all turn up on the day. Anything I fancy at the weekend generally gets put in some sort of multiple with a horse or two for Cheltenham.
 
That's very interesting. I've done it a couple of times but only on things that are short that I don't fancy putting a lot on, on a random Saturday.

That must be why you're called Faugheen machine then haha. You should be the Autumn_Faugheen_Machine haha
 
That's why he's my favourite ever racehorse :encouragement:
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Yeah, I do one most weekends. I had a right lift a couple of years ago - had the autumn double in a treble with Faugheen in his champion hurdle year.

Its hard to place a Cheltenham ante post yankee this far in advance and have them all turn up on the day. Anything I fancy at the weekend generally gets put in some sort of multiple with a horse or two for Cheltenham.
Click to expand...

I like that approach FM - good to get to March with some live ones. Been a bad antepost year with me so far- altior for Champion hurdle and Barters for RSA in a lot of lines.
 
Kev from the owners reports Champers main target is the RSA, things dont always go to plan as we know so he could go down the 4 miler. He looks a bit overpriced in the RSA to especially when you consider the record of horses in the top 4 of the Albert Bartlett the year before. While on the subject of Champers, in yesterdays race, does anyone know how or why Duelling banjos had an official chase mark of 135. He has only had one run over fences prior to yesterday where he fell at the first. The mark is the same as his hurdling mark and he doesnt actually look that exposed over hurdles either!! I thought before the race the mark looked very strange and now having seen him run it looks even more ridiculous or it could be Champers on Ice is a superstar!!!
 
It does indeed seem like we are all thinking along the same lines.... or putting forward such a strong case that we all follow each other :encouragement:

My Cheltenham book thus far (53 pts - not all covered below...)

Supreme
Moon Racer, 1pt @ 16/1
Jenkins, 1pt @ 14/1

Arkle
Le Prezien, 1pt @ 20/1 (missed the good prices on Altior :grumpy: - will add to multiples nearer the time)

Champion Hurdle
Yanworth, 1pt @ 16/1 (thought that this had gone, but now looks like I may get a run for my money!)

4 miler
Champers on Ice, 1 pt @ 25/1
Wotzizname, 1 pt @ 50/1

RSA
Alpha Des Obeaux, 2 pts @ 7/1

Bumper
Carter McKay, 1 pt @ 25/1

JLT
Tombstone, 1pt @ 20/1
O O Seven, 1pt @ 16/1

Ryanair
GLV, 1pt @ 33/1
Taquin Du Seuil, 1pt @ 16/1

World Hurdle
Ballyoptic, 1pt @ 25/1, 1pt @ 16/1
Rawnaq, 1pt @ 20/1

Triumph
Defi Du Seuil, 1pt @ 14/1

Albert Bartlett
Claimantakinforgan, 1pt @ 25/1

Gold Cup
Coneygree, 2pts @ 14/1
Thistlecrack, 3pts @ 8/1
Valseur Lido, 1pt @ 14/1

I've lost 6 pts to Barters Hill and Sprinter Sacre, but relatively happy with my position otherwise...

Gutted that I've missed good prices on Altior and UKWIMG, but you lose some, you lose some :confused:
 
Yeah you cant back them all but you look like youve got a really strong hand to go to war with at the moment and only 6pts down and all looking ok!!

Ok hear goes:

7pts down already with horses that cant run coz of retirement or injury and Ive backed Kotkikova 2pts EW for the mares and im very sceptical about her running and ive almost given up on her, but fingers firmly crossed!!

Ok 26pts on accas (Doubles, Trebles, Patents, Yankees!!) Too many to list hear but they all look ok, as they always do at this time of year, its March that they dont look so good!!

To win any Race
3pt Win Aux ptit Soins 12/1 (not looking great)
3pt Win Blow by Blow 14/1
1pt win Yorkhill 7/2
1pt win VVM 11/4

Supreme Novices
4pt win Jenkins 25/1
1pt EW Melon 20/1
2pt Win Moon Racer 16/1
0.5pt EW Moon Racer 7/1
0.5pt EW Capitanie 33/1
2pt Win Peace News 20/1
1pt Win Peace News 75/1
5pt win Crack Mome 25/1

Arkle
5pt win 5/1 Altior
1pt EW Identity Thief 20/1
0.5pt EW Dont Touch It 33/1
5pt win Min 8/1

Champion Hurdle
2pt EW MTOY 33/1
1pt EW Yorkhill 20/1
1pt Win Annie Power 10/3
2pt Win Faugheen 11/4
1pt EW Sceua Royal 33/1
1pt EW Yanworth 16/1
(layed Altior to win 1pt at 14/1)

Mares
1pt win VVM 5/1
1pt win Apples Jade 5/1

Neptune
2pt EW Invitation Only 25/1
1pt EW Death Duty 25/1
4pt Win Robin Roe 20/1
2pt Win Lough Derg Spirit 25/1

RSA
1pt win Champers on Ice 33/1
1pt EW Champers on Ice 33/1
1pt win Disko 25/1
1pt EW Alpha Des Obeaux 8/1
1pt Win Bellshill 14/1

Queen Mother
1pt EW Fox Norton 20/1

Bumper
2pt EW Carter Mckay 25/1
2pt EW Getabird 25/1

JLT
1pt win Aux Ptit Soins 17/1 (not looking good)
0.5pts EW Dont touch it 33/1
1pt EW American Tom 25/1
1pt win American Tom 25/1
0.5pts EW Charbel 33/1

Ryanair
0.25pts EW Dodging Bullets 33/1
1pt EW Gods Own 25/1

World Hurdle
0.5pts EW Shaneshill 14/1
0.5pts EW UKWIMHarry 25/1
0.5pts EW Rawnaq 33/1
0.25pt EW Lil Rockafella 25/1
0.5pt Win Lil Rocakafella 37/1
1pt EW Jezki 14/1

Mares Nov
2pt win Camelia De Cotte 12/1

Triumph
1pt EW Demi Du Seuil 20/1

Albert Bart
2pt EW Invitation Only 25/1
1.5pts Win Westend Story 20/1
1pt EW Death Duty 16/1

Gold Cup
1pt EW Minella Rocco 50/1 (not looking good hope hes ok after that heavy tired fall)
0.2pt Win Three Musketeers 200/1
1.5pts Win Zabana 50/1
0.5pts EW More of That 40/1 (actually this one should of gone on the losers pile really)
0.5pts EW Djakadam 16/1
0.5pts EW Coneeygree 10/1

Also got a 4pt Double on Virat Kohli to Top Score for both teams in the current series against England and Thistelcrack to win the Gold Cup the double pays 21.5/1 .

And thats it, for the record on the day if the prices are shorter ill be laying the horse to get my stake back so although ive a lot of points down ill be trying to get as many back on the day. So they just need to get there now and win a few races on the way.

I get that to 156.7 pts staked, oh gosh!!!! What can possibly go wrong!!!!!
 
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Some very good prices there Billymag!
To have only dropped 7 points (confirmed) thus far is a good effort. Granted, some more will fall by the wayside, but that's just how it is.
 
billymag said:
Kev from the owners reports Champers main target is the RSA, things dont always go to plan as we know so he could go down the 4 miler. He looks a bit overpriced in the RSA to especially when you consider the record of horses in the top 4 of the Albert Bartlett the year before. While on the subject of Champers, in yesterdays race, does anyone know how or why Duelling banjos had an official chase mark of 135. He has only had one run over fences prior to yesterday where he fell at the first. The mark is the same as his hurdling mark and he doesnt actually look that exposed over hurdles either!! I thought before the race the mark looked very strange and now having seen him run it looks even more ridiculous or it could be Champers on Ice is a superstar!!!
Click to expand...

I hadn't noticed that about the rating but yeah no idea how that was calculated!? I have no doubt Pipe is initially targeting COI at the RSA and saw him reiterate that before the race yesterday but I do personally think he'll fall just short of top class so i'm hoping they'll look to go down the 4 miler route after Christmas time as for me the further he goes the better he will be - bundles of stamina. I think he just gets done for pace against top class opposition.

Liking these bets billy and Leman. It's good to see we've all got the large part of our bets in place. Looking at these lists I feel like my 19 points is a little modest now...should add some more! :D

Leman - you have Claimantakinforgan down for the Albert Bartlett - any word on strong opinion on him going down that route? I'm really keen on Lough Derg Spirit this season and this fella could factor in his target seeing as they are both with same owners and trainer.
 
Leman - you have Claimantakinforgan down for the Albert Bartlett - any word on strong opinion on him going down that route? I'm really keen on Lough Derg Spirit this season and this fella could factor in his target seeing as they are both with same owners and trainer.[/QUOTE]

Nothing specific. I read somewhere (possibly One Jump Ahead?) that he would be more suited by 20-24f.
At the time of placing the bet, he was only quoted for AB, so I jumped on ��
 
I've made good money for the last 3 years courtesy of Vautour, his untimely death has made a hole in my portfolio this time around, plus robbing the fez of a wonderful horse, however I've been feeding money onto the Identity thief/Coneygree ew double, quite keen on this if they both get there
 
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