Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets

[Kevloaf]

Arpege D'Alene targetted at the 4 miler at Chelt according to Nicholls.... not quoted anywhere yet.

 

[jono]

Just another point on the Annie/Faugheen targets. With Apples Jade disappointing and possibly going elsewhere the Champion Hurdle is in serious danger of having no credible challenger for the Mullins runner (whoever takes it up). The Irish challenge in AJ may well have gone, Mullins holds all the cards in Ireland then and then it just leaves the likes of Sceau Royal (improving) and MTOY here in England!!

The WH could very likely end up being the tougher race out of the two championship races to win (as crazy to think!) I LOVE Annie Power but do think Faugheen would have the edge on her (just) and is the better hurdler, with scope to be as good other 3m. So for that reason see Faugheen going for the 'harder' race

 

[Kevloaf]

Just another point on the Annie/Faugheen targets. With Apples Jade disappointing and possibly going elsewhere the Champion Hurdle is in serious danger of having no credible challenger for the Mullins runner (whoever takes it up). The Irish challenge in AJ may well have gone, Mullins holds all the cards in Ireland then and then it just leaves the likes of Sceau Royal (improving) and MTOY here in England!!

The WH could very likely end up being the tougher race out of the two championship races to win (as crazy to think!) I LOVE Annie Power but do think Faugheen would have the edge on her (just) and is the better hurdler, with scope to be as good other 3m. So for that reason see Faugheen going for the 'harder' race

Annie already being beaten over 3 miles as well wouldn't be a tick in that box, whereas Faugheen is 'more unexposed' over the trip?

 

[jono]

^ Exactly that, for me there's plenty of reasons why you'd go Faugheen WH rather than Annie. It's harder to think why they'd send Annie WH

 

[jono]

Arpege D'Alene targetted at the 4 miler at Chelt according to Nicholls.... not quoted anywhere yet.

Just a note on this - Paul Nicholls has a shocking record in the race. He's 0/17 winners and only 1/17 placed (2nd in 2012). Doesn't mean he can't win of course but if trends / trainers records are factored in by anyone thought it was worth mentioning

 

[Kevloaf]

SurpriseD his record isn't better... can surely lure a decent pilot and not many better with a staying chaser....

On another note .... Wylie Thursday?

Yorkhill JLT / Black Hercules Ryanair / Nichols Canyon WH

Targeting a day? Not unheard of I guess ... I'm not on that treble but it is fun

 

[paz247]

^ Exactly that, for me there's plenty of reasons why you'd go Faugheen WH rather than Annie. It's harder to think why they'd send Annie WH

I mentioned this in the Champion Hurdle thread a few weeks back about Faugheen being the one that would go up in distance. Am I right that in his ATR interview, Ricci said he wanted both to run in the CH and that Willy said no? He also said that for whatever reason, if AP wasn't ready or hadn't run in anything they would go to the Mares

 

[jono]

It's surprisingly, like you say Nichols is best known for excelling with staying chasers. He's had some well fancied horses in that run too so it's not like they were never expected to do better. The key to this race as said before is the jockey on board. He's never gone for one of the 'top' jockeys (generally using Biddick for his ametuer races) - If he were to then i'd be happy to look past that stat somewhat.

paz - yep surprisingly it is Willie that wants them both in the race but Ricci was clear his preference is to separate them both as he doesn't want them in the same race against eachother. So if you believe him then it suggests when we talk about who is the one who is seperating horses in the yard; Willie would be the one for having multiple in the race where as Ricci and Ruby are against.

And he did also say about Annie potentially running in the mares if she ran into issues through the season, but that she is in great health and nothing is wrong right now so unlikely. I think Ricci was very aware after last year’s Vautour-gate (as he put it) that declaring targets can change so was keen to stress in almost all the horses cases that options are open and things can and will likely change.

Another point mentioned - he's very keen on running Douvan in the King George but then stepping back to 2miles for the Champion Chase. Now him and Matt Chapman raised the point about they would have to see how he won it (if he does) as to if they'd then go to the Gold Cup but surely a win in the King George would HAVE to send him down that route?

 

[paz247]

The death of Vautour has well and truly shaken up the targets of his horses, VVM will be given an entry in the King George which I thought was intriguing, will she get an allowance at the weights? Douvan needs to run in the Champion Chase, that's not to say he won't be a force in the KG if goes there, but he is so natural at 2m then why not go for the CC and then step up next year, only 6 so plenty of time for the step up

 

[Istabraq]

Ricci has history with keeping his horses apart so any comments about running both AP and Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle should come with a health warning.
I haven't scoured the books but I can't recall Ricci having two in any Cheltenham race, Mullins has yes, but I don't recall Ricci ever going double handed, so it would take a complete strategy change to see this.

 

[gjt7756]

Vroum vroum mag was stated at this seasons super sub, with the sudden sad passing of vautour will VVM just simply step into his shoes and go for Vautours intended targets, now right in there in the King George market, and two weeks ago before the passing of vautour patrick Mullins said he would love for VVM to be a gold cup horse even though the stamina might stretch her a bit she will have the allowance, interesting thought I feel

 

[Kevloaf]

Ricci has history with keeping his horses apart so any comments about running both AP and Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle should come with a health warning.
I haven't scoured the books but I can't recall Ricci having two in any Cheltenham race, Mullins has yes, but I don't recall Ricci ever going double handed, so it would take a complete strategy change to see this.

He did have Sempre Medici in as a second string in this years Champion Hurdle... (your book must not be up-to-date Ista ) ... haha, you are of course, right that he has never put two with a chance against each other at the festival though and that won't be changing.

I've seen the On The Line program now with Ricci and he makes it quite clear that he will keep them apart, even when Chapman presses him on it. He defended running them over 2m4f too to start with (Hattons Grace). Ricci also said very clearly, unless Annie has a very interupted prep, there is no way she'll be going for the mares race. SO if they both make it there, we only have 2 combinations...

Option 1
Annie CH
Faugheen WH

Option 2
Faugheen CH
Annie WH

I know some people don't like second guessing Mullins and I wouldn't disagree.... but 19/1 is generous in my opinion. The CH looks like a penalty kick and the WH is just waiting for something with actual class to turn up (with the exception of the mighty, USGN conquering, Rawnaq of course) :triumphant:

 

[Kevloaf]

Are you upset with the cost of a pint? Why not throw £3.58 on this 279/1 shot instead for the greatest show on turf...

Annie CH
Douvan CC
Black Hercules Ryanair
Faugheen WH


Just think how many pints you could buy with your £1002.40 :highly_amused: 279?

I need to go to sleep.

 

[billymag]

On Douvan, it does sound like they are seriously considering the KG with him, if he wins the KG then id of thought its 75% likely that he will go for the Gold Cup. The 25/1 on the double with 365 seems to offer plenty of value to me, especially in view of the last 12 months with Vautour. For my money if shows up he will do the double, i accept that he might not turn up for the first leg though, but happy to have a go at that price.

 

[mouseyaa21]

On Douvan, it does sound like they are seriously considering the KG with him, if he wins the KG then id of thought its 75% likely that he will go for the Gold Cup. The 25/1 on the double with 365 seems to offer plenty of value to me, especially in view of the last 12 months with Vautour. For my money if shows up he will do the double, i accept that he might not turn up for the first leg though, but happy to have a go at that price.

I did talk about having a little nibble for Douvan winning the GC after listening to the RR podcast and the news of vautour. But then again when I heard the news I put even more on thistlecrack loooool

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Terrible news about Vautour, saddest racing day for me for a long time, great horse, in spite of connections doing their best to ruin him, all water under the bridge now

 

[Istabraq]

That's true kevloaf, I forgot they gave Simpre Medici a champion hurdle shot, good shout

 

[jono]

Just seen that Nina Carberry will not race again this season as she is pregnant. Hoping she'll come back to the sport but wouldn't surprise me if she didn't with such risks involved. Would be a real shame as she is a master on board and one of my favourites

Josies Orders has been my long term 'best bet' for Cheltenham 2017 but I Think that is a huge negative on its chances without Nina onboard - she's the best there is around the cross country course. Luckily I was building a pot up and hadn't put the bet down as it was a bet that would never reduce in odds until the cross country races got going (gutted it got called off this weekend) but this news has definitely swayed my confidence in the bet now :grumpy:

 

[Istabraq]

For me Nina is the best amateur pilot around and has been for years, better than the majority of pro male jocks.
She has an unbelievable ability of nurturing horses along in races, building their confidence and teaching them the game, especially with bumpers which is why she is invaluable for so many Irish trainers, though Elliott will suffer more than most.
There are other decent amateurs about but the sphere will be massively weakened by her absence but she's chosen to start a family and you have to wish her all the best, but I do hope she returns to racing....

 

[Istabraq]

I desperately hope that Enda Bolger has already picked up the phone to Jamie Codd and promised him anything he wants to secure his services for On The Fringe....