Soft heavy in places by the looks of it, likely to make Champions Day something of a guess up...
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Champions Day - Ascot - Saturday 17th October 2020
- Thread starter Saxon Warrior
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BookieBasher
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Eggs
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Faugheen_Machine
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SharpHat
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Really fancy Hortzador in the Balmoral, currently best price 40-1 with 365.
Won 2 of its last 3 with holdup tactics, then the last race they rode him up with the leaders where he flattened out to finish down the field. Looks to me like they were using that to get him ready for this race without impacting his handicap mark. Hes trained by O'Meara who loves this race (won 2 out of last 3) and always puts a few away for it. On top of that hes booked the king of the hold up tactics Jamie Spencer whos never ridden him before. I expect him to be coming fast and late, with a bit of luck and a clear passage he could easily make the places or better.
Won 2 of its last 3 with holdup tactics, then the last race they rode him up with the leaders where he flattened out to finish down the field. Looks to me like they were using that to get him ready for this race without impacting his handicap mark. Hes trained by O'Meara who loves this race (won 2 out of last 3) and always puts a few away for it. On top of that hes booked the king of the hold up tactics Jamie Spencer whos never ridden him before. I expect him to be coming fast and late, with a bit of luck and a clear passage he could easily make the places or better.
[h=2]Jamie Spencer is at Ascot for one ride on Saturday but he's also shared his thoughts on the rest of the card[/h]
[h=4]Hortzadar[/h] I suppose you could say he was a little disappointing at York last time, having gone into that race on the back of successes at Ripon and Goodwood. I suppose it could be a case of the handicapper having caught up with him after upping him 7lb for those two victories and he hasn’t run up to his best in his previous Ascot starts, but 1m on soft ground are his ideal conditions and hopefully he can improve upon that York run last time.
SharpHat
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Jamie towing the party line there, never trust a jockey. He knows hes on a certainty :highly_amused:
Haha, I have actually backed him, despite having already read his 'thoughts'.
Pretty bleak looking day for him with 1 ride, and it's a 40/1 no-hoper...
He must think we're daft :highly_amused:
Pretty bleak looking day for him with 1 ride, and it's a 40/1 no-hoper...
He must think we're daft :highly_amused:
Faugheen_Machine
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The racing is ripe for a boil over tomorrow. Chanced Sir Busker at a massive price (66/1, 4 places) in the QE II.
I was hoping both SB and Escobar would turn up in the Balmoral, yet they appear here and will probably end up backing both at huge prices.
I was hoping both SB and Escobar would turn up in the Balmoral, yet they appear here and will probably end up backing both at huge prices.
Sensible FM.
I'm going to have a bit of an 'old-school' day tomorrow, where I find a bet in each race that I'll be watching. I don't mind treating a day like tomorrow as a one-off days entertainment, and it will be the end of my betting on the flat until next year (with the odd exception I'm sure, like the Breeders Cup!)
Anyway, Ascot:
13:20 - Stayers - Stradivarius 6/5
6 pts win (0.6 of which are with Concertista for the CH for no real reason)
PP are giving away a free £5 on the race, I've put that on Spanish Mission at 18/1 without any real thought.
13:55 - Sprint - Oxted (5pl) 7/1 and Onasiss (5pl) 50/1
1.25 pts e/w and 0.5 pts e/w - Both have done me good turns over the flat season, in profit from both regardless - both pink and begin with O too, so easy to spot on the telly.
14:30 - Mares - Mehdaayih (4pl) 9/1
1 pt e/w - Backed this horse a few times and don't like anything really. Reckon I've backed all 12 of these this season.
15:05 - Milers - Escobar (4pl) Sir Busker (4pl) both 66/1 Veracious (3pl) 75/1
0.5 pt e/w, 0.5 pt e/w and 0.25 pt e/w - Literally copying FM above on the first two, and scooby has mentioned Veracious (although not a tip) but it's a wild price.
I might end up backing Palace Pier though tomorrow, depending on Stradivarius' result. In fact there is probably going to be an 'enhanced' double on them that I will probably back in the morning. I'll update if I do. I know you're on the edge of your seats.
15:40 - Champion - Japan (3pl) and Pyledriver (4pl) - both 16/1
Both 1.25 pts e/w - Backed Japan for the Arc, the horse was purchased with a view to running well in that race and I hope that he puts in a much improved run here (which he needs to) and Pyledriver is a horse I keep getting wrong but I don't like loads in this and I'd like him to win.
16:15 - Handicap - Hortzadar (4pl) 40/1
0.5 pt e/w - See case made above, and Spencer's only ride of the day appeals somewhat.
Good luck, and good riddance to the flat :highly_amused:
I'm going to have a bit of an 'old-school' day tomorrow, where I find a bet in each race that I'll be watching. I don't mind treating a day like tomorrow as a one-off days entertainment, and it will be the end of my betting on the flat until next year (with the odd exception I'm sure, like the Breeders Cup!)
Anyway, Ascot:
13:20 - Stayers - Stradivarius 6/5
6 pts win (0.6 of which are with Concertista for the CH for no real reason)
PP are giving away a free £5 on the race, I've put that on Spanish Mission at 18/1 without any real thought.
13:55 - Sprint - Oxted (5pl) 7/1 and Onasiss (5pl) 50/1
1.25 pts e/w and 0.5 pts e/w - Both have done me good turns over the flat season, in profit from both regardless - both pink and begin with O too, so easy to spot on the telly.
14:30 - Mares - Mehdaayih (4pl) 9/1
1 pt e/w - Backed this horse a few times and don't like anything really. Reckon I've backed all 12 of these this season.
15:05 - Milers - Escobar (4pl) Sir Busker (4pl) both 66/1 Veracious (3pl) 75/1
0.5 pt e/w, 0.5 pt e/w and 0.25 pt e/w - Literally copying FM above on the first two, and scooby has mentioned Veracious (although not a tip) but it's a wild price.
I might end up backing Palace Pier though tomorrow, depending on Stradivarius' result. In fact there is probably going to be an 'enhanced' double on them that I will probably back in the morning. I'll update if I do. I know you're on the edge of your seats.
15:40 - Champion - Japan (3pl) and Pyledriver (4pl) - both 16/1
Both 1.25 pts e/w - Backed Japan for the Arc, the horse was purchased with a view to running well in that race and I hope that he puts in a much improved run here (which he needs to) and Pyledriver is a horse I keep getting wrong but I don't like loads in this and I'd like him to win.
16:15 - Handicap - Hortzadar (4pl) 40/1
0.5 pt e/w - See case made above, and Spencer's only ride of the day appeals somewhat.
Good luck, and good riddance to the flat :highly_amused:
Last edited:
SharpHat
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Sensible FM.
I'm going to have a bit of an 'old-school' day tomorrow, where I find a bet in each race that I'll be watching. I don't mind treating a day like tomorrow as a one-off days entertainment, and it will be the end of my betting on the flat until next year (with the odd exception I'm sure, like the Breeders Cup!)
Anyway, Ascot:
13:20 - Stayers - Stradivarius 6/5
6 pts win (0.6 of which are with Concertista for the CH for no real reason)
PP are giving away a free £5 on the race, I've put that on Spanish Mission at 18/1 without any real thought.
13:55 - Sprint - Oxted (5pl) 7/1 and Onasiss (5pl) 50/1
1.25 pts e/w and 0.5 pts e/w - Both have done me good turns over the flat season, in profit from both regardless - both pink and begin with O too, so easy to spot on the telly.
14:30 - Mares - Mehdaayih (4pl) 9/1
1 pt e/w - Backed this horse a few times and don't like anything really. Reckon I've backed all 12 of these this season.
15:05 - Milers - Escobar (4pl) Sir Busker (4pl) both 66/1 Veracious (3pl) 75/1
0.5 pt e/w, 0.5 pt e/w and 0.25 pt e/w - Literally copying FM above on the first two, and scooby has mentioned Veracious (although not a tip) but it's a wild price.
I might end up backing Palace Pier though tomorrow, depending on Stradivarius' result. In fact there is probably going to be an 'enhanced' double on them that I will probably back in the morning. I'll update if I do. I know you're on the edge of your seats.
15:40 - Champion - Japan (3pl) and Pyledriver (4pl) - both 16/1
Both 1.25 pts e/w - Backed Japan for the Arc, the horse was purchased with a view to running well in that race and I hope that he puts in a much improved run here (which he needs to) and Pyledriver is a horse I keep getting wrong but I don't like loads in this and I'd like him to win.
16:15 - Handicap - Hortzadar (4pl) 40/1
0.5 pt e/w - See case made above, and Spencer's only ride of the day appeals somewhat.
Good luck, and good riddance to the flat
Search for a song 120
Oxted 155
Even so 230
The revenant 305
Magical 340
Hortzador 415
Done a little lucky 63 just for fun. I also considered Mehdaayih but I refuse to back detorri each way, if he's not going to win he gives up
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Have put up a small preview for champions day tomorrow. Cant lie, I'll be glad to get it out the way and on to the jumps.
Not sure if I I straight copy and paste due to the images. Bjt the links below.
https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/2020/10/15/free-champions-day-preview/
Not sure if I I straight copy and paste due to the images. Bjt the links below.
https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/2020/10/15/free-champions-day-preview/
https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/2020/10/15/free-champions-day-preview/
QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS LONG DISTANCE CUP (Group 2)
*BROOME
has has alway looked a stayer and was one time fav for the st ledger, he comes in here joint 2nd highest rated after finishing 4.25L behind STRADIVARIUS in the coronation cup, that result may flatter him.
*FUJAIRA PRINCE
progressive and has stepped up from handicap company to group 1 level. He showed that he deserves to be at this level, and i can potentially see him reversing form with search for a song, assuming his challenge is delayed a bit longer.
MILDENBERGER
managed managed to get close to NAYEF ROAD on the all weather which on paper reads good form, however the latter is a horse that finds off the bridle and just does what he needs to do, and mildenbergers form on turf leaves alot to be desired at this level, imo the all weather form flatters him considerably.
*MORANDO
loves testing conditions, worth a try over this trip,and wont be disgraced.
*SOVEREIGN
went off fav for the irish st ledger, likely to be setting a strong pace here for broome and dawn patrol, has been seen to be dangerous when left too much rope upfront, but over this trip, he should be reeled in may weaken.
SPANISH MISSION
he was made too much use of at goodwood, and went too early. Back on track with a listed win and a weak group 2. Untried on tested ground. However a very patient ride, could see him pass beaten rivals with place credentials.
STRADIVARIUS
wihout doubt the one to beat. Won well at ascot in testing conditions. On all known form, should be odds on. Current odds of 6/5 may look generous in reflection post race.
TRUESHAN
will be ridden to attempt to arrive on the scene late.
*DUBIOUS AFFAIR
entitled entitled to be here, however not entitled to be involved at the finish.
*MONICA SHERRIF
Waste of an entry fee.
SEARCH FOR A SONG
ran a very good race in the tattersalls gold cup and followed that up in the Irish st ledger, however she is now priced accordingly at 9/2. She is Unproven in testing conditions, I DO NOT believe that she is a bet to nothing ew. I personally would avoid her for the win also.
*DAWN PATROL
should be held up, receives the allowance, however is held on a line through the consistent santiago.
MAX VEGA
Recieves the allowance, however unlikely to recieve any prize money.
QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS SPRINT STAKES
*BRANDO
Has seen better days, conditions are right up his street, however he dosent have it in him to win.
*CAPE BYRON
hasn’t ran since this race last year where he was hampered and weakened. I can see him being a big drifter in the market, from current odds of 12/1
*CHIEFOFCHIEFS
handicapper in a group race.
*DREAM OF DREAMS
the one to beat, handles conditions well, in fine form, however priced accordingly and not a certainty.
*GLEN SHIEL
Has deserved the step up from handicaps to group company, wont be disgraced.
*HAPPY POWER
More prominent tactics have seen genuine improvement from him, now up in grade, ridden prominently he should atleast feature.
*OXTED
took the step up from handicap company to graded level in his stride, very hard to discount. Player.
*SPEAK IN COLOURS
He wont be disgraced and may well out run his odds of 50/1 by finishing in the top half of the field.
*THE TIN MAN
Isn’t the horse he was, conditions should suit, cant see him rolling back the years
*ART POWER
Unfavourable ground conditions. May travel well, however find the closing stages tough
*DUBAI STATION
Unlikely to be taking home any prize money.
*LOPE Y FERNANDEZ
runs well in france, hasn’t shown the Dane level of form here, may run on late.
STARMAN
progressive, steps up markedly in grade and deserves his chance, however this is a huge step up. Best watched imo.
ONE MASTER
conditions to suit, very consistent. likely to run into the places late on, however for me isn’t a win proposition over a trip short of her best
SONAIYLA
steps back uo to 6f here, has won in conditions at a much lower level. May be on the scene with a furlong to go and out run her current odds of 20/1. Possibly a BACK now to LAY in running proposition
*JOUSKA
hard to see her bringing home any prize money.
*ONASSIS
50/1 and wont be disgraced. However held on all known form
QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS FILLIES & MARES STAKES (Group 1)
*ANTONIO DE VEGA
Ran well last time, up in grade here, however has potential improvement. Not one to dismiss. I think she may drift markedly, however shouldn’t be discounted.
*DAME MALLIOT
holds the current fav, on her french running. Should be a solid player.
*MANUELA DE VEGA
solid , consistent type, however likely to find atleast one too good.
................
https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/2020/10/15/free-champions-day-preview/
QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS LONG DISTANCE CUP (Group 2)
*BROOME
has has alway looked a stayer and was one time fav for the st ledger, he comes in here joint 2nd highest rated after finishing 4.25L behind STRADIVARIUS in the coronation cup, that result may flatter him.
*FUJAIRA PRINCE
progressive and has stepped up from handicap company to group 1 level. He showed that he deserves to be at this level, and i can potentially see him reversing form with search for a song, assuming his challenge is delayed a bit longer.
MILDENBERGER
managed managed to get close to NAYEF ROAD on the all weather which on paper reads good form, however the latter is a horse that finds off the bridle and just does what he needs to do, and mildenbergers form on turf leaves alot to be desired at this level, imo the all weather form flatters him considerably.
*MORANDO
loves testing conditions, worth a try over this trip,and wont be disgraced.
*SOVEREIGN
went off fav for the irish st ledger, likely to be setting a strong pace here for broome and dawn patrol, has been seen to be dangerous when left too much rope upfront, but over this trip, he should be reeled in may weaken.
SPANISH MISSION
he was made too much use of at goodwood, and went too early. Back on track with a listed win and a weak group 2. Untried on tested ground. However a very patient ride, could see him pass beaten rivals with place credentials.
STRADIVARIUS
wihout doubt the one to beat. Won well at ascot in testing conditions. On all known form, should be odds on. Current odds of 6/5 may look generous in reflection post race.
TRUESHAN
will be ridden to attempt to arrive on the scene late.
*DUBIOUS AFFAIR
entitled entitled to be here, however not entitled to be involved at the finish.
*MONICA SHERRIF
Waste of an entry fee.
SEARCH FOR A SONG
ran a very good race in the tattersalls gold cup and followed that up in the Irish st ledger, however she is now priced accordingly at 9/2. She is Unproven in testing conditions, I DO NOT believe that she is a bet to nothing ew. I personally would avoid her for the win also.
*DAWN PATROL
should be held up, receives the allowance, however is held on a line through the consistent santiago.
MAX VEGA
Recieves the allowance, however unlikely to recieve any prize money.
QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS SPRINT STAKES
*BRANDO
Has seen better days, conditions are right up his street, however he dosent have it in him to win.
*CAPE BYRON
hasn’t ran since this race last year where he was hampered and weakened. I can see him being a big drifter in the market, from current odds of 12/1
*CHIEFOFCHIEFS
handicapper in a group race.
*DREAM OF DREAMS
the one to beat, handles conditions well, in fine form, however priced accordingly and not a certainty.
*GLEN SHIEL
Has deserved the step up from handicaps to group company, wont be disgraced.
*HAPPY POWER
More prominent tactics have seen genuine improvement from him, now up in grade, ridden prominently he should atleast feature.
*OXTED
took the step up from handicap company to graded level in his stride, very hard to discount. Player.
*SPEAK IN COLOURS
He wont be disgraced and may well out run his odds of 50/1 by finishing in the top half of the field.
*THE TIN MAN
Isn’t the horse he was, conditions should suit, cant see him rolling back the years
*ART POWER
Unfavourable ground conditions. May travel well, however find the closing stages tough
*DUBAI STATION
Unlikely to be taking home any prize money.
*LOPE Y FERNANDEZ
runs well in france, hasn’t shown the Dane level of form here, may run on late.
STARMAN
progressive, steps up markedly in grade and deserves his chance, however this is a huge step up. Best watched imo.
ONE MASTER
conditions to suit, very consistent. likely to run into the places late on, however for me isn’t a win proposition over a trip short of her best
SONAIYLA
steps back uo to 6f here, has won in conditions at a much lower level. May be on the scene with a furlong to go and out run her current odds of 20/1. Possibly a BACK now to LAY in running proposition
*JOUSKA
hard to see her bringing home any prize money.
*ONASSIS
50/1 and wont be disgraced. However held on all known form
QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS FILLIES & MARES STAKES (Group 1)
*ANTONIO DE VEGA
Ran well last time, up in grade here, however has potential improvement. Not one to dismiss. I think she may drift markedly, however shouldn’t be discounted.
*DAME MALLIOT
holds the current fav, on her french running. Should be a solid player.
*MANUELA DE VEGA
solid , consistent type, however likely to find atleast one too good.
................
https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/2020/10/15/free-champions-day-preview/
Last edited:
Faugheen_Machine
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YoungHustler
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Bets I've had for tomorrow:
13.20 - Broome
13.50 - Oxted
14.30 - Dame Malliot
16.15 - Orbaan/Njord/Ropey Guest
Main 2 I fancy are Orbaan(explained on the Daily Bets thread) and Oxted. I just can't believe Oxted is 7s and an EW bet 5 places is surely a bet to nothing. He easily won the July Cup, goes well fresh, soft ground won't be an issue being by Mason and he may still be improving as this will only be his third run this season.
13.20 - Broome
13.50 - Oxted
14.30 - Dame Malliot
16.15 - Orbaan/Njord/Ropey Guest
Main 2 I fancy are Orbaan(explained on the Daily Bets thread) and Oxted. I just can't believe Oxted is 7s and an EW bet 5 places is surely a bet to nothing. He easily won the July Cup, goes well fresh, soft ground won't be an issue being by Mason and he may still be improving as this will only be his third run this season.
SharpHat
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Quevega
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Yep.
Oxted.
The horse that needed better going but in the last couple of months has strengthened and been tried on soft on the gallops - so now they think he'll be ok. :highly_amused::highly_amused:
I would have backed it but it's too annoying.
Oxted.
The horse that needed better going but in the last couple of months has strengthened and been tried on soft on the gallops - so now they think he'll be ok. :highly_amused::highly_amused:
I would have backed it but it's too annoying.