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Champion Hurdle 2020

Saldier 6/1 NRNB looks good off the back of what PM said last week.
 
Saldier is interesting coz his record is so good fresh. Ive often wondered about such horses and I think that its worth considering it might not be quite as simple. Most of the time horses running fresh are first time out in the season and people use that record to confirm that they can run and win when fresh when ever that run comes in the season. I accept the horses record but hes running against other horses at that time of year, who may lack fitness and carry condition. So if Saldier goes to the CH fresh he will be running against fit horses, and he might have to find 10lb extra to what he would in November for example. So people saying they are not worried about him going there fresh coz of his record, I would still see the lack of a run as a big negative and in fact I think his NRNB price of 6/1 without a recent run looks too short for me.
 
billymag said:
Saldier is interesting coz his record is so good fresh. Ive often wondered about such horses and I think that its worth considering it might not be quite as simple. Most of the time horses running fresh are first time out in the season and people use that record to confirm that they can run and win when fresh when ever that run comes in the season. I accept the horses record but hes running against other horses at that time of year, who may lack fitness and carry condition. So if Saldier goes to the CH fresh he will be running against fit horses, and he might have to find 10lb extra to what he would in November for example. So people saying they are not worried about him going there fresh coz of his record, I would still see the lack of a run as a big negative and in fact I think his NRNB price of 6/1 without a recent run looks too short for me.
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You only have to look at horses like See you Then, Quevega and Benie to throw that theory out the window.
 
Lobos said:
You only have to look at horses like See you Then, Quevega and Benie to throw that theory out the window.
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Yes, some horses run their best races when fresh and others need a run or two to hit their peak.

Saldier has won first time out every time he has had a break of over 100 days, apart from when he was going to win(?) when falling a t he last against Espoir D’Allen. So he runs well when fresh, no doubt on this.
 
Ok sorry for bringing it up lol But rather than just throw it out the window maybe its worth at least considering that would his record fresh look as good if he was doing against race fit rivals.
Rather than throw it out the window coz youve plucked out the air the 3 horses that have brilliant records fresh, two of which are running in the weakest of graded races against mares and the other is nearly 40 years ago!!
maybe there are other examples of horses that win first time out at the start of the season then get beat when trying it later in the year, maybe there are more than three examples in the last 40 years. Or you can throw the theory out the window when looking at backing a horse at 6/1 in a championship race who has only completed once in 11 months. Just saying lol
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
Yes, some horses run their best races when fresh and others need a run or two to hit their peak.

Saldier has won first time out every time he has had a break of over 100 days, apart from when he was going to win(?) when falling a t he last against Espoir D’Allen. So he runs well when fresh, no doubt on this.
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But would he win against race fit rivals, hes running against fresh horses also apart from when he had a big class edge and only had to run to 125. He wont have the class edge in the CH, its just a theory that ive played over the years, im not sure if its right but theres enough evidence to show its worth considering for me.
 
It's a perfectly defensible position. Of course some horses run well when fresh but there is no way of knowing if they run at their optimum first time out unless you can get the time machine out and re-run the race with him having had a race under his belt.
 
archie said:
It's a perfectly defensible position. Of course some horses run well when fresh but there is no way of knowing if they run at their optimum first time out unless you can get the time machine out and re-run the race with him having had a race under his belt.
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Yes its a price thing, 6/1 on the day wouldnt be enough to tempt me, but I can see why others would, be interesting to see how he finishes out his race, compared to horses who are hard fit.
 
Bit bemused at a Champion Hurdle entry for Abacadabras. Never even considered it. They won't go here surely will they?
 
Whats peoples thoughts on the cashout situtation for Honeysuckle? I know somw like myselt backed her at the huge prices to decide later.
I backed her twice, 1 with a point each way which now returns over 8points and 1 with a point win bet which now returns 4.5 points.
The plan all along was to re-evaluate at the nrnb stage so i've some thinking to do.

Possible scenarios -
Runs at DRF, wins and Henry says final decision closer to the time. Increased cashout.
Runs at DRF, gets beat and Henry says she will go to mares with cashout then removed.
She doesnt run, cashout reduced or removed
She doesnt run and announcement she goes to mares and cashout removed
 
KingSprinterSacre said:
Whats peoples thoughts on the cashout situtation for Honeysuckle? I know somw like myselt backed her at the huge prices to decide later.
I backed her twice, 1 with a point each way which now returns over 8points and 1 with a point win bet which now returns 4.5 points.
The plan all along was to re-evaluate at the nrnb stage so i've some thinking to do.

Possible scenarios -
Runs at DRF, wins and Henry says final decision closer to the time. Increased cashout.
Runs at DRF, gets beat and Henry says she will go to mares with cashout then removed.
She doesnt run, cashout reduced or removed
She doesnt run and announcement she goes to mares and cashout removed
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Whilst the bookies are much quicker in suspending cash out on injured horses, they are often much slower (and almost non-responsive) when it comes to targets, especially when something is intimated and not said definitively. For example, PM said Faugheen would go 2M4F at the DRF which would make qualifying for the NHC incredibly difficult and highly unlikely. Cash out still hasn't changed and I can make a tidy profit on that bet if I so wish.

You will know their ambitions from where Henry places her at the DRF and depending on that performance, I would then consider cash out then. They will most likely keep their options open and even if they did say its the mares and not CH, i reckon you would still be able to cash CH no problem, unless it was really late in the day (as in early March).
 
charlie said:
Whilst the bookies are much quicker in suspending cash out on injured horses, they are often much slower (and almost non-responsive) when it comes to targets
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I don't have time unfortunately but it would be a very interesting exercise to check the prices offered by bookmakers that sponsor trainers against certain horses targets.

Standing joke that Paddy Power invariably know where Mullins horses are heading, I wonder if Tizzard, Hendo, Nichols etc provide an early heads up to the sponsors who provide financial support to the yard....
 
Honeysuckle at 5s NRNB looks a free stab in the dark here with Bet365.

She only runs if she wins the Irish Champion Hurdle. If she did, she’d be what price? 3/1 ish I reckon.

If she loses, she doesn’t run and it’s money back.

It’s not even tying money up til the festival either because it’s full cashout Bet365.

Honeysuckle @ 5/1 NRNB (Bet365) - 5 points
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Honeysuckle at 5s NRNB looks a free stab in the dark here with Bet365.

She only runs if she wins the Irish Champion Hurdle. If she did, she’d be what price? 3/1 ish I reckon.

If she loses, she doesn’t run and it’s money back.

It’s not even tying money up til the festival either because it’s full cashout Bet365.

Honeysuckle @ 5/1 NRNB (Bet365) - 5 points
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I'd actually guess she'd be shorter than 3s MOM. Could be wrong, but if she beats whats likely to turn up for the ICH, she'll have more substance than Epatante
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Honeysuckle at 5s NRNB looks a free stab in the dark here with Bet365.]
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Not a horse I've ever taken to if I'm honest and only one piece of form in her book that suggests she can win a G1 race and it's possible everything ran below their best in that Hattons Grace hurdle.

There have been strong cases for Benie, Honesysuckle and Epitante all to ditch the Mares and head to the Champion hurdle, and although I know this is a sensitive subject, but it makes the creation of a mares programme somewhat redundant.
Both Benie and Honeysuckle have been targeting 20f prizes, presumably with a view to taking in the G1 Mares race at Cheltenham, only Epitante looks to be a 2 miler so I can see her going Champion Hurdle but not the other two...
 
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