• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Champion Hurdle 2020

Kevloaf said:
He did, but he also had Silver Streak behind him that day... so regardless of what Buveur's hoofs were doing, he was ahead of a horse that placed in a CH last year, who is a shorter price than him in the market.
Click to expand...

He did place in the CH, a 16 length 3rd where he was never put in the race to win, he was purely ridden to try and place as highly as possible.


Nope, but Pentland Hills lost to him and he's been 2nd fav all year ... i'm making a poiint about price and value. Do you understand that?
Click to expand...
PH may have been 2nd favourite but personally that is something that I can’t understand at all. He has no relevant form outside of winning the Triumph, but for Triumph winners to be relevant they need to destroy a field aka Our Conor, not like PH win. I would agree he is and always has been a stinking price.


Again, nope.... I've said that all year... but the facts are Ballyandy ALSO placed in the Christmas Hurdle, which is the piece of form the Favourte is using?
Click to expand...
Again an overrated piece of form for me and if I had the bank I’d laynher all day


I don't understand what you're talking about here, but Darasso hasn't run to a higher OR than Cornerstone Lad in his career? Do you mean Cilaos Emery? If so, Cilaos Emery has a peak hurdle rating of 158, Cornerstone Lad is peak 159 - so why the huge difference in price other than trainer?
Click to expand...
I meant that CEs beating of Darasso good form despite it being criticised . Ratings aren’t always accurate, I think horses can be overrated based on the grade of race they race in regardless of the quality of that race.
If CE has stuck to hurdles he would be higher than 158 imo

Answer me this though, do you think Cornerstone Lad should be a bigger price than Ballyandy or Silver Streak?[/B]
Click to expand...

I would expect Cornerstone to go off shorter than either of them due to the potential ground, however I am not surprised he is bigger odds as we speak. People see the 3rd by Silver Streak and Ballyandy has been overbet ever since winning the Bumper.

The initial was CE v Cornerstone Lad and I would agree that CE should be significantly shorter. I saw someone else make the point about how most of us would/had backed him to win a CC vs Altior/CPS/DDS and he was at the same odds for that as he is the CH. when you look at it like that there is no reason for him to still be 7-8/1
 
Fair enough, I'm not going to repeat myself as I've pretty much already said everything here #2415
(and the few posts I made after it.)


Isn't much to add....


As a betting angle, when two horses are rated the same, and one is 4 times the price, I'll keep plugging away with reasons to back the bigger priced one - it'll work out best in the long run :)



Cornerstone Lad is 10/1 (9 places)
Cilaos Emery is 15/2 (4 places)


If I could only have one each way bet, it'd be Cornerstone Lad out of those two.

I did back CE to win a QMCC as well, but that's price related, at the time we didn't know Defi would win a Tingle Creek, Altior had been beaten as was aiming for a difference race and CPS hadn't run but then lost first time out....(might not have those dates exactly right but you will get my point)



So using the QMCC, now, as it is - is not fair or realistic. We 'assume' CE would be an Arkle winner, we were all happy to chance him at a price - but the QMCC hadn't taken shape yet.... Altior 100% was going up in trip, CPS hadn't run, and when he did he got beat, and Defi was actually fav for the Ryanair?


To be fair I should have just said that, it'd have nipped it in the bud :highly_amused:
 
Last edited:
Covered Cornerstone Lad And can see him in the places
 
I do understand the price difference, but if you are backing a horse 9 places if you are being honest with yourself you do not expect it to win, if you did you would justdo 25/1 4 places and are purely playing for place money. That makes that 10/1 actually a 1/2 shout for it to finish in the top 9 and I don’t consider that great value.
 
Hurricane fly said:
I do understand the price difference, but if you are backing a horse 9 places if you are being honest with yourself you do not expect it to win, if you did you would justdo 25/1 4 places and are purely playing for place money. That makes that 10/1 actually a 1/2 shout for it to finish in the top 9 and I don’t consider that great value.
Click to expand...

I've got Cornerstone Lad at 55/1 so I won't be backing him at 25/1

It's not about the 9 places is it, its about the fact that if you are wrong, you'd still be paid 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th at a better return that CE at 2nd, 3rd, 4th?



Anyway, I'm on both :highly_amused:

Good luck HF, and everybody :)
 
CL ew double with Cepage in the Ultima. Place place returns me a couple of ton thanks very much. Let's go boys!!!!
 
Pentland Hills out to 9/1

:rolleyes:


When he hits double figures I'm going to consider a bet :highly_amused:
 
Now 10/1 4 places.

I am getting so close.......... :highly_amused:


He drifted loads and loads before the Triumph too - that's running through my head.


Come on Kevloaf. Stay strong.
 
Fair play to her, she was classy. Cilaos ran a decent race, Darver Star also. Happy enough he covered me with the place money.
 
Can't argue with that. The 2 actual hurdlers 1-2
 
can't believe Sharjah went off 16/1 - nearly double the price of Cilias Emery and Pentland Hills.
 
Ground was the big concern with Sharjah. Maybe this has just proven that some days, he really just can't be arsed.
 
Pretty happy with Darver star. Won myself plenty of place money off him. And Epatante is definitely a good horse.
 
The first thing that popped into my head as I watch the replay is Tony Mullins from the FF preview being adament it would end up being a good race. He got slammed for it. Matt Chapman opened the segment saying he hadn't met anyone that thought it was a good CH in terms of quality. The general consensus on here was exactly the same. With the result, were we all wrong? I think so now.

Epatante was a brilliant winner. Really impressive on watching it back, her jump at the last was so nice and she just put lengths between herself and the Sharjah who had been making eye catching progress. He in turn put the rest of the field to bed on what I can only assume was his best day and that puts Epatante as a very impressive winner. Is Sharjah the most reliable yardstick? Absolutely not... but I can't pick a hole in the race really. Epatante with her WFA is a 169 rated winner. The exact same as Annie Power. That is 3 lbs less than Buveur D'air but he'd be 10 next year and Epatante is the one on the up. She's rising 7 next year and I think she's without a doubt the one to beat next year. 4/1 now isn't worth getting involved with because she'll be a fair price as long as Goshen is in the market. Will get to him on day 4 obviously.

Sharjah at 25/1 for next year is perfectly fair though. Backed... read why here #100

Darver Star was 3rd, and the formline with Envoi Allen and Abacadabras was clearly strong. Honeysuckle too can be included as they're all linked via DS. What that means though for me is they have to step up to catch Epatante who was and is clearly superior to my mind. Using DS, the price of 8/1 about Abacadabras doesn't appeal as a bet now either as I'd sooner take her at 4/1 to back up than 8/1 about Abacadbras to improve enough.

Absolutely no interest in anything behind in terms of the Champion Hurdle going forward. Cilaos Emery was exposed as not being good enough, the handicappers were proven to be just that. Supasundae was exposed too (didn't stop me backing him). Coral Cup is his only hope of another festival win if they're clever enough to try and regain that :highly_amused: Petit Mouchoir did nothing for the likes of Klassical Dream and Saldier who will be on the radar next year although I fear too short to actually play with.
 
Sharjah was an underrated/overlooked horse all season for me Kev, I was on at 33/1 and was fairly excited 2 out but Epatante went by and put daylight between them.
Does that make the winner high quality, I think we need to assess next seasons performances before we can judge that.

For me so much hinges on what novices stay over timber, Shishkin seems certain to go chasing but with Goshen about and if Aba takes a shot at the Champion Hurdle and if the likes of Saldier and Klassical Dream come back strong then Epatante will have a tougher task defending her crown...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom