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Champion Hurdle 2019

Champion Hurdle 2019

  • Total voters
    75
bobbyvalentino said:
I could only put 0.75ew on the 14s as I’d rather take a shorter price and see the ground before having a proper bet. Certainly a live chance. He was my main fancy for the Supreme last year but really never got the opportunity to show his best, does seem to be very ground dependent
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My thinking was that its about a 1/3 chance that its gd to soft on the 1st day. Last year obviously an exception. But 15/1 was way too big. he'd have won by even further should Patrick had gone for one before the last, but understandably after last year he was conservative. He then picked back up and flew home when asked.

Faugheen looks in fair form on his Apple's jade showing so if you look back on that run, sharjah absolutely hacked up. Off a stronger pace with tombstone a mile back, so he's versatile.

He's won the best 2 trials very convincingly, he's a very good chance in the CH imo.
 
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Bedrock.


“We’ll never now what would have happened. Obviously we’ve beaten the winner this season. Whether we’d have beaten him again, who knows?”

Bedrock was purchased by American owner Irvin Naylor following his Down Royal win and is due to cross the Atlantic to resume his career Stateside at some stage.

Whether he will run again in Britain beforehand remains to be seen.

“I’m not sure what the plan is at this stage. I need to discuss it with the owners,” Jardine added.

“He is due to go to America at some point, but all that still needs to be discussed.”
 
Scooby91 said:
Bedrock.


“We’ll never now what would have happened. Obviously we’ve beaten the winner this season. Whether we’d have beaten him again, who knows?”

Bedrock was purchased by American owner Irvin Naylor following his Down Royal win and is due to cross the Atlantic to resume his career Stateside at some stage.

Whether he will run again in Britain beforehand remains to be seen.

“I’m not sure what the plan is at this stage. I need to discuss it with the owners,” Jardine added.

“He is due to go to America at some point, but all that still needs to be discussed.”
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You'd think they'd have a crack if they love the sport wouldn't you ?
No idea what races they have in the US for him to win before March.
They must fancy his chance given the form working out, even though Sharjah's probably improving all the time.
It'd definitely be a potential wildcard if he runs.
 
I'm a little surprised with the nods for Bedrock. 20/1 is the NRNB price and I think that flatters him. I can sort of understand a flyer at 40/1 if you're confident he'd run but...

The 1.5 length win over Samcro, was Bedrock's 12th race since 16th March. It was Samcro's 2nd. So after winning the Ballymore on March 14th he then fell in the April and this was his first run of the season (November 2018)

Even if you ignore race fitness, which would be mental, a literal 1.5l beating of Samcro (even if that was never to be turned around) is not good enough to win this race.

I wouldn't accept it to be a literal piece of form Bedrock versus Sharjah either, as although Sharjah was 'match fit', he'd run in two flat races, one of them a big'un, and I think his subsequent runs have proven he didn't give his running that day.


I've no clue either what the plan would be in the US, but if they bought him to go there, they should stick to it.
 
Kevloaf said:
I'm a little surprised with the nods for Bedrock. 20/1 is the NRNB price and I think that flatters him. I can sort of understand a flyer at 40/1 if you're confident he'd run but...

The 1.5 length win over Samcro, was Bedrock's 12th race since 16th March. It was Samcro's 2nd. So after winning the Ballymore on March 14th he then fell in the April and this was his first run of the season (November 2018)

Even if you ignore race fitness, which would be mental, a literal 1.5l beating of Samcro (even if that was never to be turned around) is not good enough to win this race.

I wouldn't accept it to be a literal piece of form Bedrock versus Sharjah either, as although Sharjah was 'match fit', he'd run in two flat races, one of them a big'un, and I think his subsequent runs have proven he didn't give his running that day.


I've no clue either what the plan would be in the US, but if they bought him to go there, they should stick to it.
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Lot of guesswork for sure.
Who ran their race
Who didn't
Who was race fit
Who wasn't
Who's had too many runs
Who will turn up in March
Who ran in a big un

If you take all the guesswork out of it.
It's a solid piece of champion hurdle form as we stand right now.

And if they've bought it they should do what the fuck they want with it. unless you're their dad:highly_amused:

To be fair it's quite clearly speculative, but if he were to turn up on the day, on good to soft ground he'll be a lot shorter, depending on any prep run ?
 
I'd back him at 40/1 on the day, so ye.
 
Last year Elgin went off 12/1 so I’d say there’s still some value in 20/1 NRNB (not that I’m taking it)


I think Newcastle took a lot out of Samcro and BDA hence their performances in defeat over Christmas. They both ran stones not lbs lower.

I might start doing some trebles around Altior and BDA (ironically 2 horses I have historically tried taking on with horrific results)
 
Scooby91 said:
he'd have won by even further should Patrick had gone for one before the last, but understandably after last year he was conservative. He then picked back up and flew home when asked.
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Just watched the race back again this time focusing more on Sharjah and didn't realise just how conservative Patrick Mullins was on Sharjah at the last there (as you say understandably) - he didn't ask him for anything, lost a chunk of momentum but still powered on again after getting over.
 
Bedrock's owner has taken the horse to the States after a falllout with trainer Ian Jardine.

Bedrock missed the Ryanair Hurdle due to the presence of corticosteroids in its system after a test that had been requested by Jardine himself when he feared the drug might not have cleared through in time for racing.
 
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Scooby91 said:
Bedrock's owner has taken the horse to the States after a falllout with trainer Ian Jardine.

Bedrock missed the Ryanair Hurdle due to the presence of corticosteroids in its system after a test that had been requested by Jardine himself when he feared the drug might not have cleared through in time for racing.
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That settles that then
 
Might sound nuts.
But petit mouchoir at 290.0 is too big here. He's had a blow out, he sat out the back, he diddnt disgrace himself.
He was beaten by rashaan on seasonal debut previously. All I want is another run ridden positively over 2m now he's blown the Cobb Webbs away. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong but I think it's there.
 
I’m wondering whether 8-1 apples jade NRNB is a very good bet..... if she turned up in this surely she would be no bigger than 4s? I have a sneaky feeling they might have a go at this race given she’s in such good form
 
The Don said:
I’m wondering whether 8-1 apples jade NRNB is a very good bet..... if she turned up in this surely she would be no bigger than 4s? I have a sneaky feeling they might have a go at this race given she’s in such good form
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Personally think it's least likely race. Can't jump out to the right and get away with it at a pace like that in the CH.
 
Scooby91 said:
Personally think it's least likely race. Can't jump out to the right and get away with it at a pace like that in the CH.
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Pretty much exactly what I was going to say. Gordon also said that out of the Champion and Stayers, the stayers is more likely.
 
charlie said:
Pretty much exactly what I was going to say. Gordon also said that out of the Champion and Stayers, the stayers is more likely.
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Stayers more likely.
Mares a certainty.
 
Scooby91 said:
Might sound nuts.
But petit mouchoir at 290.0 is too big here. He's had a blow out, he sat out the back, he diddnt disgrace himself.
He was beaten by rashaan on seasonal debut previously. All I want is another run ridden positively over 2m now he's blown the Cobb Webbs away. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong but I think it's there.
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I don't think you're mad at that price. I've backed Paloma Blue at 540.0, he's not winning an Arkle with that jumping technique so wouldn't be the biggest shock to see him line up here
 
Apple's Jade
I'm not backing her for this as Gordon has been quite clear about Mares first, stayers possibly
But, he also said her next race would be the Irish Champion Hurdle.
Now considering Samcro is spent. How tempting would it be to go to the Champion if she wins the Irish Champion hurdle well.
And I'd also imagine she'd be put in as favorite for the Irish Champion also.
Just food for thought.
 
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