Champion Hurdle 2019

[Quevega]

That is an INCREDIBLY harsh statement!

Thought Samcro was a Champion Hurdler and has questionable judgement because he came 2nd to a dual CHler horse rated 172, with the Supreme winner 3000 miles back?


I know we're in agreement with the over-arching point, but question Gordon Elliott's judgement is sacrilege

Trainers get it wrong more often than we realise, because they rarely admit it.
I recall Gordon getting Apple's Jade from Mullins and you could sense the pressure on him with such a promising horse after what she did at Aintree as a juvenile.
After she got beat by Rashaan on her debut for him, he had to excuse it somehow and one simple way was to suggest she needs a trip (On other occasions trainers will suggest ground or needed the run or almost anything other than I hadn't got her right) I acknowledge that they sometimes do concede this.
Only 6 months prior she was absolutely smashing up horses like Footpad, Sceau Royal over 2 miles.
Yet just 6 months later she can;t compete anymore at 2 miles and needs further ??
In the meantime those two horses (footpad and SR) were competing more than adequately at 2 miles in open company and went on to finish 4th and 6th in a champion hurdle as five year olds.
The truth is he'd not got her right at this time and her improved form when he did get her right appeared to suggest it was when she went up in trip (which may be correct, but we can never be sure as she has never been back to 2 miles since then)

His error with Samcro is that he thought he had the beating of BD based on his weighing up of last years champion and Mick Jazz's proximity. He clearly thought BD was not all that (like someone I know very well). And he was wrong, you could see it on his face (and mine) on Saturday.
He's in the process of making a balls up of Samcro's season (if he is the champion they think he is).
But he is an outstanding trainer and is more often right than wrong and he may well salvage something out of Samcro's season yet.

The supreme winner can't jump. I had a dirty weekend with that horse but will not go near him again. How he won the supreme I'll never know. Put him in a box with Western Warhorse.

 

[Kevloaf]

Trainers get it wrong more often than we realise, because they rarely admit it.
I recall Gordon getting Apple's Jade from Mullins and you could sense the pressure on him with such a promising horse after what she did at Aintree as a juvenile.
After she got beat by Rashaan on her debut for him, he had to excuse it somehow and one simple way was to suggest she needs a trip (On other occasions trainers will suggest ground or needed the run or almost anything other than I hadn't got her right) I acknowledge that they sometimes do concede this.
Only 6 months prior she was absolutely smashing up horses like Footpad, Sceau Royal over 2 miles.
Yet just 6 months later she can;t compete anymore at 2 miles and needs further ??
In the meantime those two horses (footpad and SR) were competing more than adequately at 2 miles in open company and went on to finish 4th and 6th in a champion hurdle as five year olds.
The truth is he'd not got her right at this time and her improved form when he did get her right appeared to suggest it was when she went up in trip (which may be correct, but we can never be sure as she has never been back to 2 miles since then)

His error with Samcro is that he thought he had the beating of BD based on his weighing up of last years champion and Mick Jazz's proximity. He clearly thought BD was not all that (like someone I know very well). And he was wrong, you could see it on his face (and mine) on Saturday.
He's in the process of making a balls up of Samcro's season (if he is the champion they think he is).
But he is an outstanding trainer and is more often right than wrong and he may well salvage something out of Samcro's season yet.

The supreme winner can't jump. I had a dirty weekend with that horse but will not go near him again. How he won the supreme I'll never know. Put him in a box with Western Warhorse.

That's actually quite an interesting angle on it all.

Will reply properly when I get chance

 

[jonthehammer]

The whole grade 2 idea is perfect as if they have won a grade one v the boys then they can still run in the mares if they want, but with a penalty, this creates a better chance for the lesser mares to compete.
That's the same for any grade one winner who drops into a grade 2 race.

It would then also potentially nudge trainers and owners to go for the grade one races where they get the 7lb, as an alternative.

If you want the lesser mares to compete and start bringing in extra weight for the very good mares (or less for the lesser mares), you may as well make it a handicap race in my opinion. Hopefully in time more decent mares will come through and make it more competitive. There are other races which haven't been competitive over the years as mentioned already on here and they are still in tact and we all love them. It is what it is.

 

[archie]

Is Kevin Blake in favour of making the 1000 Guineas and Oaks Grade 2s as well to force the fillies to go for the 2000 and Derby or is he just being controversial for the sake of it?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Is Kevin Blake in favour of making the 1000 Guineas and Oaks Grade 2s as well to force the fillies to go for the 2000 and Derby or is he just being controversial for the sake of it?

I bet he hadn't even considered it Archie :highly_amused:

It is clear the NH game is behind the times with regards to Mares, the 1000 Guineas has been around since the year 1814 and no one bats an eyelid that it is 'fillies only' yet the 2000 Guineas is open to both colts & fillies.

I think Quevega was a rarity, no horse has won the race twice bar her (6 times), and to be quite honest, as good as she was, the race was in its infancy but it is now finding its feet and as stated, I think it will become a more competitive race with time, whether it's the same trainers dominating it is another thing altogether.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Market valuation is usually a decent indicator of whether the race is competitive or not.

It may be getting slightly more competitive (I'm not convinced) but a top class mare will always dominate this race, as Quevega did for 6 years on the trot.

No, market valuation is based on the volume of bets (money), the horse does not know its price and the punters are the ones who create such a favourite. How many of us on here thought AJ was a sure thing for the festival last season? I know I did, and the weight of money meant she had to go off pretty short, but we were wrong, I was wrong, regardless of excuses.

The race had only been introduced the year before when Quevega set off on her reign, and I would admit, it probably wasn't the most competitive of races back then, but it is becoming more so, it needs time, as stated above, the 1000 Guineas has been around since 1814 (fillies only race) and no one has any concerns about that, when they could potentially go for the 2000 Guineas.

 

[Kevloaf]

I'm confused, if Quevega winning uncompetitive renewals was great, wouldn't that go against what you're saying makes the race better now? If Quevega was in the Championsship races then, the Mares would also have been more competitive and therefore better?


Regarding the 1000 guineas, no absolutely not. Not the same at all.
No one has knocked the mares program... and IT ADDS to the season when the girls and boys clash late in the season, like THE ARC. Its more like Enable skipping the Arc to go for the Fillies and Mares race. That's a fairer analogy

 

[boopa]

The horse doesn't know its price but BSP is an extremely accurate reflection of its chance.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm confused, if Quevega winning uncompetitive renewals was great, wouldn't that go against what you're saying makes the race better now? If Quevega was in the Championsship races then, the Mares would also have been more competitive and therefore better?


Regarding the 1000 guineas, no absolutely not. Not the same at all.
No one has knocked the mares program... and IT ADDS to the season when the girls and boys clash late in the season, like THE ARC. Its more like Enable skipping the Arc to go for the Fillies and Mares race. That's a fairer analogy

No, I fully agree about Quevega, but Willie had Hurricane Fly for the CH, he would never have put them 2 against each other, not to mention the first ever winner of the mares hurdle, Whiteoak, went and run in the Champion Hurdle the following season and got stuffed, enough to keep Quevega away from that race the following season maybe? I don't honestly think the majority of mares (including past winners of the mares hurdle), even with a 7lb allowance, would be good enough to take on the boys (Annie Power was on another level) but the mares races are becoming more competitive. However, with the likes of Laurina, supposedly going for the Champion Hurdle (I think she'll struggle), it only weakens the mares division IMO.

If Laurina did turn up for the mares we couldn't say, that on paper, Apples Jade, Benie Des Dieux & Laurina is a contest we wouldn't look forward to?

There have been plenty on here who have said Laurina isn't good enough to win a Champion Hurdle but want the mares in the race

 

[ComplyOrDie]

The horse doesn't know its price but BSP is an extremely accurate reflection of its chance.

Price is dictated by man, not by horse. It is an accurate reflection of punters' opinion, nothing else.

 

[Quevega]

I think some people are not getting where Blake is coming from.

The system already exists where a grade one winning horse of either sex, carries a penalty if it wishes to run in a grade 2.
This is almost like a mini handicap system to deter grade one class horses mopping up prize money in lesser grades.
It is a gentle persuasion for a horse to run in their own class, and then step up in grade as they improve. Not go back to second grade and come top of the class every week.

Making the mares Race at the festival a grade 2 would simply mean that exceptional mares that are running in open grade ones during the season and winning them handsomely, are provided with a gentle dilemma whether to take on their own sex with a grade one penalty or go for an alternative race and get a mares allowance.

It should potentially mean we get better clashes in the championship races and would not harm the mares schedule at all,
If they proved competitive at the festival in open company (as they ought to do as they have won grade ones during the season) then this would only enhance the mares division and mares as racehorses in general.

Annie Power winning the champion (by default) arguably did more for the mares cause than anything in the last 15 years.
Shattered Love also did them proud last year.

He said the same about novices who gain very high ratings/and or race in open company in their novice season. If they achieved said rating then they had to step up to open company ( I think this might be better achieved by giving an allowance (incentive) for novices opting to run in open company - of some sort), providing they had gained a sufficient enough rating and experience, say 155 and at least three completed races.

This was in response I think to the 2 mile division being a less competitive in recent years and the public wanting to see big clashes between exciting novices and established champions.

I cannot see any negatives.
I think it would also pave the way for a mares chase at the festival (grade 2, of course).

And anyone who thinks that mares cannot compete against the boys is fucking stupid. I actually believe their is an edge (with the allowance) and more trainers should be using this. But I detect some stubbornness and old fashioned attitudes with some of them I'm afraid.

 

[boopa]

Price is dictated by man, not by horse. It is an accurate reflection of punters' opinion, nothing else.

BSP is accurate on their chance of winning within a 0.00275% variance in a sample of over 40,000 horses. I'll go with that.

 

[Hurricane fly]

The Mares was a grade two until 2015, I don’t think we’ve seen any more ducking since it turned to a grade 1?

Quevega still ran with the penalty, i don’t imagine it would have put Mullins of with Annie Power as his firepower dictated that as much as anything else.

Limini/AJ/VVM would all have carried a penalty so the front end of the race would have looked the same (IMO)

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

BSP is accurate on their chance of winning within a 0.00275% variance in a sample of over 40,000 horses. I'll go with that.

Correct. These markets are well formed and therefore a very accurate reflection of true chance of winning.

 

[Scooby91]

Samcro has an entry in the long walk hurdle

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Samcro has an entry in the long walk hurdle

He also has come in for some support (yet again) for the Champion Hurdle. The 12's (straight after the Fighting Fifth), 10's and majority of 8's are now gone, hadn't seen the blue myself and kind of crept it's way back in.

Is it too much to suggest he wasn't and won't be fully tuned up during the season until this race comes around?

Or have I just found a load of straws to clutch?

 

[Scooby91]

He also has come in for some support (yet again) for the Champion Hurdle. The 12's (straight after the Fighting Fifth), 10's and majority of 8's are now gone, hadn't seen the blue myself and kind of crept it's way back in.

Is it too much to suggest he wasn't and won't be fully tuned up during the season until this race comes around?

Or have I just found a load of straws to clutch?

As Elliot admits himself he needs a miracle. Or an injury to BD

People just won't stop backing samcro. If you won a few quid on him last year keep it safely tucked in your pocket

 

[Innoko]

Managed to obtain a green book with Samcro. And that's how it is being left.

I'm not going to chase this horse from one race to the next trying to work out where he may end up.

Amen.

 

[boopa]

Wont win wherever it runs and will always be overbet.

 

[charlie]

Wont win wherever it runs and will always be overbet.

Strong words for a very impressive Neptune winner.