Brown Advisory Plate 2018

[doctorwu]

Im tempted to take the 25s with SJames forgoing the NRNB

 

[Kevloaf]

Also want to point out his record fresh (he'll be coming off the back of 90 days off the track), his form when fresh reads 1-2-2-1 since he has been with Nicholls, his two 2nds were against Top Notch on his chase debut, and behind Diego Du Charmil in the Fred Winter at the festival 2 seasons ago.

That point tweaks my interest more than any of the others so far.

SLightly related note, but Harry Derham on the FFP put up Bouvreuil as one he thinks will be a big price and will run well (good festival record too, 2nd in the Close Brothers and 3rd in the same race last year) 25/1 available about him?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

That point tweaks my interest more than any of the others so far.

SLightly related note, but Harry Derham on the FFP put up Bouvreuil as one he thinks will be a big price and will run well (good festival record too, 2nd in the Close Brothers and 3rd in the same race last year) 25/1 available about him?

Like Bouvreuil, but out of touch so far this season, maybe excuses?

Funnily enough, had him and Ballyalton that year in the Close Brothers handicap.

Seems to run best around spring, so definitely one of note.

 

[Kevloaf]

RDS fans will enjoy this.... it starts about MWTT

 

[Bayoffreedom]

Can someone please explain why The Storyteller is 16/1 for this and Snow Falcon is 33/1 when the latter will be much better suited to the likely better ground and there is nothing between on their running at Leopardstown? (in fact, I would argue Snow Falcon ran like the better horse and would uphold the form anyway)

 

[ComplyOrDie]

RDS fans will enjoy this.... it starts about MWTT

Just seen this Kev, interesting that he actually brings up RDS without needing to really, I'm taking that as a positive

 

[Kevloaf]

Just seen this Kev, interesting that he actually brings up RDS without needing to really, I'm taking that as a positive

Yes I thought of you when I heard it! :highly_amused:

Certainly agree about it being a positive, although he is usually bullish about every single horse

My two in this so far are Tully East 16/1 and Long House Hall 25/1 NRNB

I Will actually add The Storyteller 14/1 NRNB as well, as I've backed NRNB so far in the JLT, Close Brothers, Ultima haha

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Yes I thought of you when I heard it! :highly_amused:

Certainly agree about it being a positive, although he is usually bullish about every single horse

My two in this so far are Tully East 16/1 and Long House Hall 25/1 NRNB

I Will actually add The Storyteller 14/1 NRNB as well, as I've backed NRNB so far in the JLT, Close Brothers, Ultima haha

I am highly likely to cover TE as a saver only. RDS is in a few bets of mine now, so a place at 16/1 will certainly be good enough, a win and some fairly decent multi's could start taking decent shape!

The Storyteller I am just waiting for a finalised entry then I will back, didn't want to tie up more money on one horse and don't honestly think his price will drop loads from initial confirmed entry which is when I'll be ready to strike.

 

[Scooby91]

Yes I thought of you when I heard it! :highly_amused:

Certainly agree about it being a positive, although he is usually bullish about every single horse

My two in this so far are Tully East 16/1 and Long House Hall 25/1 NRNB

I Will actually add The Storyteller 14/1 NRNB as well, as I've backed NRNB so far in the JLT, Close Brothers, Ultima haha

Long house hall runs in the coral cup

 

[Kevloaf]

Long house hall runs in the coral cup

Steady trickle of non runner money finding its way back.

Probably for the best with Long House Hall :very_drunk:

 

[Quevega]

Skelton deffo said long house for coral cup, which annoyed me as I thought it had a great chance in this.
But he has left it in the entries

 

[jono]

Cheers for the update Scooby. Just found the article:

First, though, he will run over the smaller obstacles at the Cheltenham Festival next month.

Skelton said: "He will run in the Coral Cup and then we will think about it. We wanted to get through the Sky Bet Chase first and go from there.

"We just felt why not, as we were second in it two years ago so you never know what might happen.

"I was really happy with how he jumped at Doncaster. He has always been a good jumper, but I just felt that was a lot better again.

"We will take in the next stage and have another think about it from there. He could be a Topham horse, if not a National horse."

 

[luisgarciaisgod]

Anyone any thoughts about the possibility of Traffic Fluide coming here? He's entered in the Ultima too but I think he's better over a shorter distance. Or will the Moores just go for the Ryanair?

 

[jono]

Coincidence or is this a race where Gigginstown have started to target with a bit more intent? They've won the last 2 renewals of this race and both horses have been incredibly progressive.

2016 - Empire of Dirt - Won the race off 142 / Now Rated 162
2017 - Road to Respect - Won the race off 145 / Now Rated 167

Do we feel they have any similar types this year?

Ball D'Arc (157) 11-12
A Toi Phil (156) 11-11
Tombstone (147) 11-02
Lord Scoundrel (146) 11-01
Tycoon Prince (144) 10-13
Attribution (143) 10-12
Dinaria des Obeaux (139) 10-08
General Principle (139) 10-08
Sutton Manor (139) 10-08

Now looking back at the 2 winner's - they are markedly different so we can't take too much for the typical 'profile'. Empire of Dirt was a 9 year old, second season chaser who took in all the big handicap chases in Ireland (Troytown, Paddy Power Chase, Coral i.e Leopardstown Chase) where as Road to Respect was a 6 year old, novice chaser who ran in grade 1 chases up against the likes of Min and Coney Island. Both had attempted 3 miles during the season and ended up coming back down in trip for this race (if that is anything)

Tycoon Prince - 33/1 Betfair / 16/1 NRNB
Has been mentioned as a possible for the Novices Handicap Chase but I quite like the look of him for this race, particularly as Elliott has indicated De Plotting Shed is likely the one for that race. In the RP last week:

He'll be entered in a few of the handicap chases but i'm not sure where he'll run just yet. He's very well in himself

So the fall last time out sounds like it hasn't left it's mark. Was very highly thought of by Elliott leading into his novice hurdle season but that didn't quite go right and he ended up being rather disappointing. Came second to Al Boum Photo on chase debut , beat Bunk Off Early next time out and then found it all too much in the Irish Arkle against Footpad and Petit Mouchoir. I think he would be the one that fits the mould of having plenty more than his mark suggests. Step up to 2m5 should play to his strengths and he has had a similar season to what Road to Respect had (pitched in against the best novice chasers over 2 miles)

 

[Scooby91]

Coincidence or is this a race where Gigginstown have started to target with a bit more intent? They've won the last 2 renewals of this race and both horses have been incredibly progressive.

2016 - Empire of Dirt - Won the race off 142 / Now Rated 162
2017 - Road to Respect - Won the race off 145 / Now Rated 167

Do we feel they have any similar types this year?

A Toi Phil (155)
Attribution (141)
Ball D'Arc (157)
Dinaria des Obeaux (140)
General Principle (139)
Lord Scoundrel (150)
Sutton Manor (137)
Tombstone (147)
Tycoon Prince (143)

Now looking back at the 2 winner's - they are markedly different so we can't take too much for the typical 'profile'. Empire of Dirt was a 9 year old, second season chaser who took in all the big handicap chases in Ireland (Troytown, Paddy Power Chase, Coral i.e Leopardstown Chase) where as Road to Respect was a 6 year old, novice chaser who ran in grade 1 chases up against the likes of Min and Coney Island. Both had attempted 3 miles during the season and ended up coming back down in trip for this race (if that is anything)

Tycoon Prince - 33/1 Betfair / 16/1 NRNB
Has been mentioned as a possible for the Novices Handicap Chase but I quite like the look of him for this race, particularly as Elliott has indicated De Plotting Shed is likely the one for that race. In the RP last week:



So the fall last time out sounds like it hasn't left it's mark. Was very highly thought of by Elliott leading into his novice hurdle season but that didn't quite go right and he ended up being rather disappointing. Came second to Al Boum Photo on chase debut , beat Bunk Off Early next time out and then found it all too much in the Irish Arkle against Footpad and Petit Mouchoir. I think he would be the one that fits the mould of having plenty more than his mark suggests. Step up to 2m5 should play to his strengths and he has had a similar season to what Road to Respect had (pitched in against the best novice chasers over 2 miles)

Yep good case. I have backed him for this at 18/1 nrnb along side the storyteller. All down to which one of de plotting shed and tycoon prince gets marked over 145. To which race of the 2 they go for.
Id have been interested in de plotting shed at 3 miles at a price. But not at 2 1/2 at the prices he is.

 

[SeanRock]

Coincidence or is this a race where Gigginstown have started to target with a bit more intent? They've won the last 2 renewals of this race and both horses have been incredibly progressive.

2016 - Empire of Dirt - Won the race off 142 / Now Rated 162
2017 - Road to Respect - Won the race off 145 / Now Rated 167

Do we feel they have any similar types this year?

A Toi Phil (155)
Attribution (141)
Ball D'Arc (157)
Dinaria des Obeaux (140)
General Principle (139)
Lord Scoundrel (150)
Sutton Manor (137)
Tombstone (147)
Tycoon Prince (143)

Now looking back at the 2 winner's - they are markedly different so we can't take too much for the typical 'profile'. Empire of Dirt was a 9 year old, second season chaser who took in all the big handicap chases in Ireland (Troytown, Paddy Power Chase, Coral i.e Leopardstown Chase) where as Road to Respect was a 6 year old, novice chaser who ran in grade 1 chases up against the likes of Min and Coney Island. Both had attempted 3 miles during the season and ended up coming back down in trip for this race (if that is anything)

Tycoon Prince - 33/1 Betfair / 16/1 NRNB
Has been mentioned as a possible for the Novices Handicap Chase but I quite like the look of him for this race, particularly as Elliott has indicated De Plotting Shed is likely the one for that race. In the RP last week:



So the fall last time out sounds like it hasn't left it's mark. Was very highly thought of by Elliott leading into his novice hurdle season but that didn't quite go right and he ended up being rather disappointing. Came second to Al Boum Photo on chase debut , beat Bunk Off Early next time out and then found it all too much in the Irish Arkle against Footpad and Petit Mouchoir. I think he would be the one that fits the mould of having plenty more than his mark suggests. Step up to 2m5 should play to his strengths and he has had a similar season to what Road to Respect had (pitched in against the best novice chasers over 2 miles)

Said as much on the first page Jono! But haven’t backed any of O’Learys yet...

 

[Kevloaf]

If Tycoon Prince does run, hopefully Davy back on board. Fell with Jack Kennedy on and we all know Davy is one to watch in any handicap chase.

 

[Kevloaf]

Paul Nicholls hopes a return to better ground can help Romain De Senam lay to rest his Cheltenham ghost in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase on March 15.

The six-year-old has yet to taste victory in four previous visits to the track, with his closest effort being a head defeat to stablemate Diego Du Charmil in the 2016 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.

"Ground is important to him. He needs good ground. He won first time out at Chepstow when then they went flat out on fast ground and he absolutely bolted in. I ran him five days later at Stratford," said Nicholls.

"Then the two big handicaps at Cheltenham in November and December, he ran really tidy but the ground was too soft for him.

"I've kept him purposely fresh for Cheltenham. A fast-run race in a big field where he can arrive late will suit him and I am hoping he can be bang on for the day.

"He is one of our best chances."

 

[Tenty]

Yep good case. I have backed him for this at 18/1 nrnb along side the storyteller. All down to which one of de plotting shed and tycoon prince gets marked over 145. To which race of the 2 they go for.
Id have been interested in de plotting shed at 3 miles at a price. But not at 2 1/2 at the prices he is.

Also like The Storyteller for this. Novices that have run respectably in graded races can often get underestimated by the handicapper.

 

[Birds Nest]

One thats gone slightly under the radar for this is Foxtail Hill. Still around 33's readily available. Favourite for last years Close brothers,where he fell, described as NTD's best chance of a winner last year, his win over Le Prezien at Cheltenham back in October was ,for me, quite breathtaking, described by NTD as a 2 and a half miler, he had enough speed to take on some very sharp types that day and was again going away from Le Prezien at the finish..Good ground seems important to him,but you could say that for most of the fancied ones too but back on a nice mark and at 33's is worthy of a look...