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Brown Advisory Plate 2018

ComplyOrDie said:
I'm not saying Tully East is without a chance, clearly a talented horse in his own right, I just think there will be better handicapped horses at better prices, most notably 2 above that I noted, Ballyalton & Romain De Seman, who finished ahead of him in the BetVictor Gold Cup, and now seemingly likely to also be better off at the weights since that race too, and will both also get the better ground that Tully East also wants.

As far as form goes, Double Shuffle is now (probably not justified really, but finished 1l behind Gold Cup favourite Might Bite LTO) rated 166 and he finished 3rd to Ballyalton at the festival in the Close Brothers Handicap in 2016!
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I do think that could well be the case and he is at this moment too short for me but I think he will be competitive in this. If he is a nice price on the day say 12s I will get stuck in, as I said this race has been won by low 140 horses in recent years and only 2 horses this century has carried more than 11 stone. 3 since 95 carried 11 stone + not a great stat for TE.

On Ballyalton, he won the Close Brothers 2 years ago, Ballyalton is now 11 but I'm sure he will be very competitive off 138. The horse is clearly very talented but had his problems missing 2 full seasons. His run in the BetVictor was very encouraging but he did seem to be struggling well before the 3miles last time but it could be a case he just loves Cheltenham.

Will Baron Alco go straight to this? You would imagine he would be on a similar mark to Tully East.

On RDS I would be worried about his ability to carry weight I think other than a juvenile hurdle win at 2/9 (carried 11-05) and a novice chase win at 1/20 (carried 10-11). His wins have been carrying 10-06 x2, 10-01. He was 2nd in the Fred Winter but the max he gave any horse was 9lb including jockey claims. Also worth noting Voix Du Reve and Campeador fell at the last travelling the best, although RDS flew up the hill, I was on RDS that day. Since stepping out of juvenile company when he's carried over 11 stone his results are as follows 5755 beaten 9.25L off 143 on good at Doncaster, 22L on good at Kempton off 137, 12L on soft at Cheltenham off 145, 10.5L on soft at Cheltenham off 145. I think he needs to drop another few pounds.
 
Folski said:
I do think that could well be the case and he is at this moment too short for me but I think he will be competitive in this. If he is a nice price on the day say 12s I will get stuck in, as I said this race has been won by low 140 horses in recent years and only 2 horses this century has carried more than 11 stone. 3 since 95 carried 11 stone + not a great stat for TE.

On Ballyalton, he won the Close Brothers 2 years ago, Ballyalton is now 11 but I'm sure he will be very competitive off 138. The horse is clearly very talented but had his problems missing 2 full seasons. His run in the BetVictor was very encouraging but he did seem to be struggling well before the 3miles last time but it could be a case he just loves Cheltenham.

Will Baron Alco go straight to this? You would imagine he would be on a similar mark to Tully East.

On RDS I would be worried about his ability to carry weight I think other than a juvenile hurdle win at 2/9 (carried 11-05) and a novice chase win at 1/20 (carried 10-11). His wins have been carrying 10-06 x2, 10-01. He was 2nd in the Fred Winter but the max he gave any horse was 9lb including jockey claims. Also worth noting Voix Du Reve and Campeador fell at the last travelling the best, although RDS flew up the hill, I was on RDS that day. Since stepping out of juvenile company when he's carried over 11 stone his results are as follows 5755 beaten 9.25L off 143 on good at Doncaster, 22L on good at Kempton off 137, 12L on soft at Cheltenham off 145, 10.5L on soft at Cheltenham off 145. I think he needs to drop another few pounds.
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I think Ballyalton's main aim is the national this year, so not sure if they'll take this in on the way
 
Robbante said:
I think Ballyalton's main aim is the national this year, so not sure if they'll take this in on the way
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Currently 82nd on the list for the National so unlikely to get in, which may push this race up the agenda if the National was the original aim.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Been going through this race, and currently 2 or 3 that stand out.

Ballyalton - Shooting down the weights currently, PU on his latest try, but the jury is still out as to whether or not he stays the 3m that he contested LTO. Has the all important festival form, winning the Close Brothers Handicap last season and finishing 2nd (bt 4 1/2L) behind none of other than the great Faugheen (Neptune) in his novice hurdle days, he's obviously talented and this race trip is his ideal IMO. Has had pretty much the same sort of prep as last season before winning his race at the festival, 4 races to date this season, and his form is a bit hit and miss, again, a bit like last season, which has also meant he has dropped down to a rating of just 138, some 2lb lower than his win at the festival last season. He is aged 11 now, so time is against him, but Gaultstats do not show this as a necessary negative, as he has course form along with this. 25/1 NRNB.

Baron Alco - Looks to have been laid out for a crack at this race (albeit I do believe there was sort of injury he picked up too), has incredibly smart form against some quality rivals, still waiting on a handicap mark, but must have a fair chance and will back NRNB (20/1) anyway, so should he not turn up it won't be a disaster.

Romain De Senam - This one I really like, made a case for some Nicholls well handicapped horses and this is one of his best I feel. Finished ahead of Tully East, as did Bouvreuil in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November, on ground that wouldn't have suited and is also 1lb better off from his UK rating to Tully Easts Irish rating and that's before Phil Smith has had his say on Tully East. His best form is on Good - Good/Soft. His only piece of festival form was his 2nd to stablemate Diego Du Charmil in the Fred Winter back in 2016, not bad form to have in the book. He is owned by the same owners Bouvreuil had (before being brought by JP), when he finished 2nd to Ballyalton in the Close Brothers Handicap, and I feel compensation may await with this one! 16/1 NRNB!
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Good post CoD.

Agree entirely about Ballyalton. Slightly worried he will be 11 this time around, but looks like he has been plotted for this and looks sure to run a good race. 25/1 with Sky if you can get on with them!
 
HardyEustace said:
Currently 82nd on the list for the National so unlikely to get in, which may push this race up the agenda if the National was the original aim.
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Good point, have seen a quote from Ian Williams yesterday saying he's not sure to get in. I agree he's well handicapped for this and has a good chance if going
 
ComplyOrDie. I could not agree more re Romain De Senam. 16/1 NRNB is lovely
 
I think O'Regan gave TE a very sympathtic ride last time out, and he still brought him into contention to finish third, I think that was treated as purely a prep run for this, I must say he is a big fancy of mine
 
I’m going to attempt to find out some news re: Baron Alco at the weekend.

Hopefully he goes here as for the reasons listed previously, he looks a grand bet.
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
I think O'Regan gave TE a very sympathtic ride last time out, and he still brought him into contention to finish third, I think that was treated as purely a prep run for this, I must say he is a big fancy of mine
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Agree completely MrM - TE is my handicap nap of the week.
 
The novice handicap form is rock solid from last year's festival and I think TE has a good chance of adding to his win last season.

I still maintain that Gold Present was the best horse in the race last year though, and think he should have won the race.....
 
Just had 4pts e/way on Romain De Senam! 16/1 NRNB!
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Just had 4pts e/way on Romain De Senam! 16/1 NRNB!
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I'm struggling a little with RDS to see why he'd get any better? HE's clearly got form to be "in the mix" and your write up is very good a few pages back, I just noticed though that he was pulled out because of the good ground previously in the spring... that would worry me and you mentioned he's not suited to softer ground?

His last two runs, both at Cheltenham, both beaten quite fairly and I don't see where the massive turnaround would come from?

As ever, I'm willing to be convinced, but I am struggling to see why you're so keen?
 
Kevloaf said:
I'm struggling a little with RDS to see why he'd get any better? HE's clearly got form to be "in the mix" and your write up is very good a few pages back, I just noticed though that he was pulled out because of the good ground previously in the spring... that would worry me and you mentioned he's not suited to softer ground?

His last two runs, both at Cheltenham, both beaten quite fairly and I don't see where the massive turnaround would come from?

As ever, I'm willing to be convinced, but I am struggling to see why you're so keen?
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I never really got why he was pulled from the festival last season, especially as that same weekend on the Saturday he raced at Kempton on 'Good' ground, then in April 'Good' ground again, and tbh 5 times in total last season he ran on 'Good', twice on Good/Soft.

His most recent form was on 'Soft' which, if you looked at his 'Soft' ground form you'd see there is a pattern developing, and involves the horse losing. On 'Good' ground he is 3 from 8, plus finished 2nd another twice, he's only once been absolutely stuffed when the going has been 'Good' and funnily enough it was that race at Kempton the weekend of that festival, so I'm going to suggest something wasn't right with him, rather than him being pulled from the festival on ground concerns, regardless of what connections say.

Even if it was Good/Soft that is manageable for him, winning 1 to date and finishing 2nd twice, and 3rd twice on the other occasions, albeit the fields were very small, but more important than his finishing position are the short distances he was beaten for me, nothing over 6 lengths, the 6 lengths being against Top Notch.

All the above includes not just chase form, but hurdles as well, I know the discipline is different but the going is the going regardless of what they race over.

He was beaten fair and square regarding the last 2 races yeah, but Tully East was beaten fair and square in one of them races too and behind RDS as well albeit only a neck but will also likely find himself worse off at the weights too yet finds himself the favourite for the race. For me RDS improves for better ground, as I am sure TE will too, but he's got to overturn the form.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I never really got why he was pulled from the festival last season, especially as that same weekend on the Saturday he raced at Kempton on 'Good' ground, then in April 'Good' ground again, and tbh 5 times in total last season he ran on 'Good', twice on Good/Soft.

His most recent form was on 'Soft' which, if you looked at his 'Soft' ground form you'd see there is a pattern developing, and involves the horse losing. On 'Good' ground he is 3 from 8, plus finished 2nd another twice, he's only once been absolutely stuffed when the going has been 'Good' and funnily enough it was that race at Kempton the weekend of that festival, so I'm going to suggest something wasn't right with him, rather than him being pulled from the festival on ground concerns, regardless of what connections say.
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He didn't get pulled from the Festival, he missed the cut in the Close Brothers Novices Handicap chase as they tried to be too clever with his mark and he missed out.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
He didn't get pulled from the Festival, he missed the cut in the Close Brothers Novices Handicap chase as they tried to be too clever with his mark and he missed out.
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Perfect, thanks Jackie :) No mistake this year!
 
I'm also a Romain De Senam fan - having just turned 6yo I think there is plenty of reason to expect improvement especially when given some decent ground. Nicholls almost didn't send him for the BetVictor due to inexperience but on reflection that's probably done him some good. Been given a nice break and I've no doubt been trained with this race in mind since his last run. I've no idea what the story is behind "ground" being officially used as the reason for his Sandown defection but Nicholls has maintained this horse wants decent ground, as mentioned here:

https://www.racingpost.com/news/in-...e-as-he-eyes-fifth-strike-in-big-chase/311851

I backed Tully East at a boosted 17.5/1 when Hills started their non-runner insurance and I've since added RDS. I'm very happy with those two and I think that is actually me done for this race, barring incident.
 
Viking Flagship said:
I'm also a Romain De Senam fan - having just turned 6yo I think there is plenty of reason to expect improvement especially when given some decent ground. Nicholls almost didn't send him for the BetVictor due to inexperience but on reflection that's probably done him some good. Been given a nice break and I've no doubt been trained with this race in mind since his last run. I've no idea what the story is behind "ground" being officially used as the reason for his Sandown defection but Nicholls has maintained this horse wants decent ground, as mentioned here:

https://www.racingpost.com/news/in-...e-as-he-eyes-fifth-strike-in-big-chase/311851

I backed Tully East at a boosted 17.5/1 when Hills started their non-runner insurance and I've since added RDS. I'm very happy with those two and I think that is actually me done for this race, barring incident.
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That link he is quoted as saying he wants "really decent ground" so has run him on 'soft' the last twice :highly_amused: Plot job ;)

Also want to point out his record fresh (he'll be coming off the back of 90 days off the track), his form when fresh reads 1-2-2-1 since he has been with Nicholls, his two 2nds were against Top Notch on his chase debut, and behind Diego Du Charmil in the Fred Winter at the festival 2 seasons ago.
 
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COD,
Do you know if RDS has any other entries?
TIA
 
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