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Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2020

Kautothegreat8 said:
Couldn’t disagree more. Speed in a supreme is massively overrated. You need to gallop and stay, a turn of foot is more likely in the Ballymore. They go one hell of a gallop in the supreme and think he can dictate things from the front.
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Good job he can do both. Makes this debate more interesting. Bit far to say speed is overrated. It's a 2 mile race, of course you need speed. I don't buy into that theory as much as others.
 
Parachute Paddy said:
Good job he can do both. Makes this debate more interesting. Bit far to say speed is overrated. It's a 2 mile race, of course you need speed. I don't buy into that theory as much as others.
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You definately need to stay further than the bare 2miles in the Supreme. Its run at full blast from start to finish, where as the ballymore they can crawl round for 2 mile then it turns into the Epsom Dash.
 
Will have to agree to disagree on the above lads!

More pressingly, can anyone direct me to this PP market on where he runs? I can't find it for love nor money and it seems to be carrying a lot of weight in this discussion. Wouldn't mind seeing the 1/3 with my own eyes!
 
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Just reading back through the Envoi Allen Supreme/Ballymore 'debate' from last night. Took some reading :)

Re Cheveley Park Stud, I doubt they would tell Gordon where to send their horses, less so with Envoi Allen who carries such a hefty reputation. Their racing director (Chris Richardson) doesn’t even go to Cheltenham because it falls during peak breeding season and Mr Thompson views NH racing as a hobby. They are far less embedded in the jumps than they are the flat, and I think they will be happy leaving the decision down to the professionals they pay, aka Gordon.

If the FJF did a ‘sweeping definitive statement day’ Kautothegreat8 (excellent name btw) then 11/12/19 would go down in history, and you would win it on the absolute snaff taking a pull :p.

Nobody has been able to answer my unanswerable question yet :devilish: - how do we know EA won’t be more suited to 2m5f?

I am in little doubt EA will end up here and don't really get why this splits opinion. When an owner says they are staying over 2 miles at Xmas and the market reacts by halving the price of Abacadabras and pushes out Envoi Allen, it should be an instant red flag to anyone thinking supreme, as should the race sponsor having EA at half the price for the Ballymore than Supreme. Markets aren't always right (but usually are) and I'm confident they have it spot on, before looking at everything else we know.

Gordon will place Envoi Allen in the race he thinks he is most likely to win, which seems like an obvious point but its the one getting overlooked. The supreme doesn't become the more winnable race (or the more prestigious race) just because we have only seen EA over 2 miles. It's a difficult equation and can seem quite contradictory because Ballymore's can turn into a sprints and Supremes are won by stayers, but for me there are more unknowns in a Supreme and Envoi Allen's core asset is his engine, more so than his speed (when I watch him that's what I see). Gordon echoes this view in his post race comments (Royal Bond): 'I didn't want it to turn into a sprint'. It reaffirms that Envoi Allen over 2m could (not would, but could) be more vulnerable to a horse with more speed (in Gordon's opinion, not mine), and there's a wealth of comments from Elliott that relate directly to his strong views on his stamina. 2m5f has been their plan from the word go, and I view his winning well over 2m as part of that plan, not contrary to that plan (this is the point that seems to divide opinion).

Until something is said definitively all we have to go on is our own judgement and how we interpret the market, trainer comments and visual impression left by the horse. I trust my judgement and have little doubt he will end up in the Ballymore. He looks as tailor made for the race as Samcro did when winning it for Gordon in 2018, who also raced more over 2m than he did over 2m5f. They share similar profiles as well as lofty reputations, but for me the answers are right there in front of us and the whole thing is being unnecessarily over complicated. If it looks like a duck, sounds like a duck, tastes like a duck and walks (or is it waddles?:)) like a duck, then it's probably a duck.
 
Nobody has been able to answer my unanswerable question yet - how do we know EA won’t be more suited to 2m5f?

Who exactly has to answer that question though Charlie ?, except those that believe he definitely will be.

The correct answer has to be "Don't Know"

If I don't believe in God. I don't have to prove that there is no God.

The onus is on those that says there is a God to prove their belief.
 
I can see him going for the lawlors 2m 4 race, drop back to 2 miles at the DRF then onto the ballymore at cheltenham. With alot more chat and discussion to come
 
quevega said:
Nobody has been able to answer my unanswerable question yet - how do we know EA won’t be more suited to 2m5f?

Who exactly has to answer that question though Charlie ?, except those that believe he definitely will be.

The correct answer has to be "Don't Know"

If I don't believe in God. I don't have to prove that there is no God.

The onus is on those that says there is a God to prove their belief.
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That is the correct answer
 
On a brighter note, Chantry House declared tomorrow
 
Good post charlie.

Not wanting to go over it all again (think I had my say last night!), but as said, if I had a gun to my head right now, I'd say Ballymore too.

But I have the biggest issue with the notion that they sat down in the summer to make their plans for the season... and when it came to EA they basically said 'Ballymore. Regardless of how he runs in any of his races or what he shows us in his races before the Festival, and regardless of what any other horse in England or Ireland does, he's going there. End of conversation'.

That just wouldnt make sense to me. Why would they be so cast iron? Just for stable money? Surely not.

The likes of Willie may not even know what he's doing with some of his a couple of weeks before Cheltenham.

If he does line up in the Ballymore, you can be sure some will say 'Ballymore, as was certain all along' or something similar. I just dont think its that cut and dry.
 
This debate will rumble on all the way to March. Not going to lie, it's one of the debates i'm least looking forward too.

Over two miles he has beaten the same horses quite a lot in his young career. At the end of the day he's beaten Abacadabras 1.5Ls. High level of form and he loves to win, does he carry the same excitement as a novice as say Samcro or Faugheen? Not for me. I really hope Mullins has a few come out soon to brighten up the novices in Ireland. Feels very much like the bumper horses from last year have carried on into this season with very few surprise horses yet.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Good post charlie.

Not wanting to go over it all again (think I had my say last night!), but as said, if I had a gun to my head right now, I'd say Ballymore too.

But I have the biggest issue with the notion that they sat down in the summer to make their plans for the season... and when it came to EA they basically said 'Ballymore. Regardless of how he runs in any of his races or what he shows us in his races before the Festival, and regardless of what any other horse in England or Ireland does, he's going there. End of conversation'.

That just wouldnt make sense to me. Why would they be so cast iron? Just for stable money? Surely not.

The likes of Willie may not even know what he's doing with some of his a couple of weeks before Cheltenham.

If he does line up in the Ballymore, you can be sure some will say 'Ballymore, as was certain all along' or something similar. I just dont think its that cut and dry.
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Agree. Whilst they might have felt he was a Ballymore type on what he showed as a Bumper horse, he has surprised everyone with his speed over 2 miles which must put some doubts in their minds re his ultimate target. A decision hasn't been made yet and won't be made for a while.
 
Kautothegreat8 said:
Scooby91 said:
He's 5/2 just to run in the race. Would have to be a bit of an idiot to take 9/2 to win it.


He was smashed for the ballymore start of the season

Hes 2/1 to win the ballymore with the yard sponsors.
9/2 top price to win the supreme.

Hes constantly matched for the ballymore on the exchange and always money up on the back side even though all you here is 2 miles this and 2 miles that.
Was the CH last week.

Abacadbras has been smashed for the supreme.
Abacadabras supreme and envoi allen to run in the ballymore @11/8 has been the subject to some allmighty doubles.

Envoi allen to run in the ballymore has been smashed from 11/8 to 1/3

Gordon wanted to start at 2m6, every time he speaks that isn't his own blog he says 2m for now. But he'll be a much better horse when stepped up. And hell be a staying chaser.

Its clear as day imo[/QUOTE

So your talking through gambling not through sport. If your not going to listen to what connections have said then they may aswell not be interviewed.

Bookmakers get things wrong you know.
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id prefer to use my own eyes than listen to what owners/trainers have to say for e.g. Apples Jade was only going for the Mares then rocks up in a Champion, Envoi looks far superior and would probably win both Novice hurdles but you cant say he wasnt doing his best work at the end of the race and a step up in trip looks like it would bring even more improvement
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Hamptonfox said:
The winner of Sunday’s 2M4F Grade 2 will most probably be targeted this way, given their isn’t another Grade 1 to aim for that is between 2M and 2M6F until Cheltenham nine weeks after the Lawlors.
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That’s the usual route alright. I’m hoping to see at least two of the Royal Bonders go to Naas anyway in EA & MR!
 
Hamptonfox said:
Thanks for the link Marty, it tells us what we already know, that he may or may not step up in trip this season.

I think if he he is going to step up then the Lawlors race at Naas is the race that connections will try it, early enough to decide which way to go at Cheltenham.
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"After Envoi Allen won the Royal Bond I thought that the likely options for him were either Leopardstown or the Lawlors Hurdle at Naas and I'm looking forward to eventually stepping him up in distance.

“Whether that will be in the Lawlor's race or later in the season remains to be seen but the Naas race is one we like to target with some our of best novices and it's a race we will be looking forward to."

That’s the key part for me. Think he ends up in the Ballymore.
 
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