Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2019

[Kevloaf]

What’s commander of fleet done wrong at 2.4 nothing at all ok beat in the royal bond but that’s over 2 can see him pitching up in here too

Nothing....

but what has he done right over 2m4f? Won at 1/5 against Kalum River who has been beaten 17L, 14L, 12L since and the 3rd went back and won a bumper but has an RPR of 103 for it.

 

[jack1092]

Kev, he was very green in his win over 2m4, and looked a right prospect then. Rewind back to then + i bet this forum was pretty impressed.

One bad run over 2miles, too short a trip + probably still mentally v immature. Probably poor placing by Elliot, but he probably thought he was classy enough to do it anyway.

I know you've said he's done nothin wrong over 2m4 :highly_amused: but i do think he's still very talented.

Why Elliot keeps entering him over 2miles is concerning/confusing me.

 

[Quevega]

Kev, he was very green in his win over 2m4, and looked a right prospect then. Rewind back to then + i bet this forum was pretty impressed.

One bad run over 2miles, too short a trip + probably still mentally v immature. Probably poor placing by Elliot, but he probably thought he was classy enough to do it anyway.

I know you've said he's done nothin wrong over 2m4 :highly_amused: but i do think he's still very talented.

Why Elliot keeps entering him over 2miles is concerning/confusing me.

The way some of Gordon's novice hurdlers have bounced back and ran career best's in the last couple of weeks means that the touted horses that have been a little disappointing cannot be ignored when we see them next,
I'd written most of his novice hurdlers off and now some of them are coming out and have seemingly improved.
COF could do the same. But it could all be misleading form also.
Not easy to weigh up.
I've kind of almost suspended betting till Trials day and Dublin.

 

[boopa]

I'd agree that COF's last run is one you could forgive. Interesting that Elliot said Battleoverdoyen stepping up from 2m4 to 2m6 was a positive.

 

[Kevloaf]

Might be keeping him at 2m (the wrong trip) for a decent marl in the Martin Pipe.

He's clearly talented, but 'the forum' went overboard on him being the new Samcro so most people have had rose tinted glasses on.

I am on though, any race, as he's clearly talented and well thought of

 

[jack1092]

Might be keeping him at 2m (the wrong trip) for a decent marl in the Martin Pipe.

He's clearly talented, but 'the forum' went overboard on him being the new Samcro so most people have had rose tinted glasses on.

I am on though, any race, as he's clearly talented and well thought of

Well, that's true winning a bumper like that made a lot of people go "wow" and expect him to be the next Faugheen (not Samcro as he's not as good )

Interesting point on the handicap!

 

[Chris]

Regarding Jarveys Plate. Champ beat Kateson 3 L. level weights. Kateson beat Mr Pumblechook 2L giving 5 lb and Mr Pumblechook beaten 27 L by Jarveys Plate, so on my reckoning this puts Jarveys Plate 17 L. in front of Champ on that line of form. I know the ground may have been a little different between one and the other races but this shows the price difference is stupid and that Jarvey Plate should be ahead of Champ in the betting.

 

[Kevloaf]

Regarding Jarveys Plate. Champ beat Kateson 3 L. level weights. Kateson beat Mr Pumblechook 2L giving 5 lb and Mr Pumblechook beaten 27 L by Jarveys Plate, so on my reckoning this puts Jarveys Plate 17 L. in front of Champ on that line of form. I know the ground may have been a little different between one and the other races but this shows the price difference is stupid and that Jarvey Plate should be ahead of Champ in the betting.

20/1 looks very fair based on that formline, have had had a dabble in the race Chris?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Are we overlooking Jarvey's Plate because he's not from one of the 'sexy' yards?

Nothing would please me more than Fergal winning @ the festival, he's a cracking character and a really good trainer, who has come to prominence no end over the past 2 or 3 seasons.

I Can't Explain was fancied by quite a few on here, and had that been another Henderson horse that done that to him he'd easily be single figures. Having re-watched the races, he has fairly quickened up that hill and then quickened again after one hit from Paddy, most taking.

Made half a case for Jarvey's Plate last week, Chris.

I think he has and is being overlooked. The time of his race that day was only 0.7 seconds slower than the Relkeel (Grade 2) Hurdle over the same distance on the same day, and those in that race were being ridden out, Jarvey's Plate got one minor hit on the backside and went further clear.

20/1 is massive, because of the trainer, nothing else IMHO.

 

[Quevega]

I’ve backed jarveys
But the problem with taking those form lines too literally is it makes Elixir de nuts look like a machine for giving jarveys 10lb and a beating

 

[Quevega]

I know about different trips etc

 

[Hurricane fly]

I’ve backed jarveys
But the problem with taking those form lines too literally is it makes Elixir de nuts look like a machine for giving jarveys 10lb and a beating

I went down that rabbit hole and it’s what helped me land on itchy feet

 

[Quevega]

I went down that rabbit hole and it’s what helped me land on itchy feet

Backed that also and elixir
Hope it all works out

 

[Scooby91]

I’ve backed jarveys
But the problem with taking those form lines too literally is it makes Elixir de nuts look like a machine for giving jarveys 10lb and a beating

Or it makes him the best of a half decent bunch.

The form of mister fisher is considerably better than that of elixir de nutz, as we'll likely see further proof of tomorrow. He recieved weight but had plenty in hand.

 

[Quevega]

Or it makes him the best of a half decent bunch.

The form of mister fisher is considerably better than that of elixir de nutz, as we'll likely see further proof of tomorrow. He recieved weight but had plenty in hand.

If you mean through Thomas Darby then considerably is a bit of stretch as it was very Earl in season when elixir met TD. But strictly speaking you’re probably right.

 

[Scooby91]

If you mean through Thomas Darby then considerably is a bit of stretch as it was very Earl in season when elixir met TD. But strictly speaking you’re probably right.

And rouge vif/ colonel custard /jarveys plate.

All conveniently works out

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I know about different trips etc

Glad you said this because Jarvey's Plate did not jump no where near quick enough over 2m in his first 2 novice hurdle races, but stayed well to the line, hence the step up in trip for him I guess. He'd get beat by all of those at the head of the supreme market over 2m IMO.

Take nothing away from EDN though, as said previously, his attitude is second to none, you'd want that in any horse you owned for sure. I think he'll get done for speed at the festival but has a solid each way chance myself.

 

[Quevega]

And rouge vif/ colonel custard /jarveys plate.

All conveniently works out

Yep
Like I said earlier with literally
Lots of ifs and buts
I must say that I thought mister fisher and the leader kind of nicked the last race though so will be looking closely tomorrow

 

[ComplyOrDie]

And rouge vif/ colonel custard /jarveys plate.

All conveniently works out

Can't bring Jarvey's Plate into it over 2m IMO. He's not a top 2 miler, that is evidently obvious. His jumping was poor/big over 2m, it all happens a little too quickly for him.

 

[Scooby91]

Yep
Like I said earlier with literally
Lots of ifs and buts
I must say that I thought mister fisher and the leader kind of nicked the last race though so will be looking closely tomorrow

I thought Mr Fisher won with a lot in hand personally. Alot more to come from him.
Personally think elixir de nutz is fighting it out and showing what he's got.

Tbf I'm on the wrong thread for this chat. So well see what Mr Fisher does at the weekend . I expect further improvement

*****
Expect champ and jarveys plate will meet very soon.