Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2019

[doctorwu]

This race is all over the place still to have a bet in it personally think champ will go AB leaning towards birchdale at the prices

I think you'll find Champ is staying here. Birchdale could be another Carlie Parcs???

 

[Scooby91]

I think you'll find Champ is staying here. Birchdale could be another Carlie Parcs???

Just let him run first in his next race.
The fact is he was an impressive winner on his ptp and on hurdles debut where barry came over for the sole ride. and he pisses all over champ at home. I don't see any reason to knock him until hes given his chance.

 

[billymag]

Tom segal historical supreme picks. That people still evidently follow in every year.

2012 midnight game 15th / vulcanite 10th
2013 river maigue 8th
2014 first mohican NR
2015 qewy 5th
2016 silver concorde 14th
2017 Charlie Parcs NR
2018 sharjah 8th / kalashnikov 2nd

Scooby Im not a fan of pricewise but pretty sure he put up Al Ferof the year before and i believe it was antepost when he won at sp 10/1

 

[JackieMoon33]

Just let him run first in his next race.
The fact is he was an impressive winner on his ptp and on hurdles debut where barry came over for the sole ride. and he pisses all over champ at home. I don't see any reason to knock him until hes given his chance.

Indeed. Whilst I don’t use home work as a judge of a horse, comparing Birchdale to Charli Parcs is a real leap! Charli Parcs was a headstrong juvenile with questionable breeding. Birchdale has a professional attitude and a more traditional breeding.

 

[Scooby91]

Scooby Im not a fan of pricewise but pretty sure he put up Al Ferof the year before and i believe it was antepost when he won at sp 10/1

I'll take your word for it. Can't find 2011.

 

[boopa]

Why was Birchdale withdrawn?

 

[Quevega]

Why was Birchdale withdrawn?

By time we've finished another discussion on Birchdale. He'll be out for the season

 

[Scooby91]

Scooby Im not a fan of pricewise but pretty sure he put up Al Ferof the year before and i believe it was antepost when he won at sp 10/1

Your correct.
2011 zaidpour 7th / al ferof 1st

 

[JackieMoon33]

By time we've finished another discussion on Birchdale. He'll be out for the season

That’s ok, it will protect his odds for the 2020 RSA

 

[billymag]

I'll take your word for it. Can't find 2011.

Only reason why i remember was that the RP did a book about pricewise and they put Toms diary from festival in it, he also did Captain Chris for the Arkle that year antepost at big price. But take your point that recently he has been very average.

 

[doctorwu]

Just let him run first in his next race.
The fact is he was an impressive winner on his ptp and on hurdles debut where barry came over for the sole ride. and he pisses all over champ at home. I don't see any reason to knock him until hes given his chance.

Im happy to see him run. Talk of the "second coming" and all that when he's won a C4. Just adding a bit of perspective

 

[doctorwu]

Indeed. Whilst I don’t use home work as a judge of a horse, comparing Birchdale to Charli Parcs is a real leap! Charli Parcs was a headstrong juvenile with questionable breeding. Birchdale has a professional attitude and a more traditional breeding.

Jackie,
Im not saying he's like CP per say, just that he's been hyped up in the same mould as CP who turned out to be nothing more than a handicapper. Birchdale has to prove himself first. Im long in the tooth with all the gallops b*llocks.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Having slagged him every step so far, I'm starting to come round to the idea of Champ possibly winning the Ballymore, purely on account there is F all in opposition.

- Battleoverdoyen I've backed at bigger prices, and although he won well the other day he jumps like a chaser and looked very green when he got to the front. Cliche next year horse, I'd be surprised if he's sharp enough for this
- Birchdale could be anything but we all know gallops work and track performance don't necessarily correlate. They've already had two homework hotpots beat in the last few weeks. Still, can't put a line through him for the reasons Scooby mentions.
- Next in the market there are a load of non-runners
- Commander of Fleet was the original fav for this, I'd be willing to give him another chance as he clearly isn't a two miler LTO. You'd be worried the yard vibes went very mute on him since the autumn and he's missing engagements.
- Blackbow is off in Vegas snorting cocaine from Chante Neige's backside with Carefully Selected neighing in the corner.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Having slagged him every step so far, I'm starting to come round to the idea of Champ possibly winning the Ballymore, purely on account there is F all in opposition.

- Battleoverdoyen I've backed at bigger prices, and although he won well the other day he jumps like a chaser and looked very green when he got to the front. Cliche next year horse, I'd be surprised if he's sharp enough for this
- Birchdale could be anything but we all know gallops work and track performance don't necessarily correlate. They've already had two homework hotpots beat in the last few weeks. Still, can't put a line through him for the reasons Scooby mentions.
- Next in the market there are a load of non-runners
- Commander of Fleet was the original fav for this, I'd be willing to give him another chance as he clearly isn't a two miler LTO. You'd be worried the yard vibes went very mute on him since the autumn and he's missing engagements.
- Blackbow is off in Vegas snorting cocaine from Chante Neige's backside with Carefully Selected neighing in the corner.

I said from long before the Challow he’d win this.

I waited ages for him to run in that handicap. That win was his Ballymore for me. I just wish I’d had some on for this before that race. I’d have got a massive price

 

[Scooby91]

I said from long before the Challow he’d win this.

I waited ages for him to run in that handicap. That win was his Ballymore for me. I just wish I’d had some on for this before that race. I’d have got a massive price

Believe it or I did and added him to which he was only 25s. Which I wasn't happy with.

 

[Chris]

I have just been having a look back at previous winners of this race and their times.
Samcro, going soft (with heavy patches), Time 5min 18sec.
Willoughby Court, going good to soft (good in places) Time 5min 9sec.
Yorkhill, going good (good to soft in places). Time 5min.
Now lets look at Jarveys Plate.
Jarveys Plate, going good to soft (good in places) Time 4min. 59sec.
Looking at the times and the going the horse he is most closely match with is Willoughby Court and he was still 10 sec. faster, now I know this is not an exact science but it shows Jarveys Plate must have a great chance in this race.

 

[boopa]

I have just been having a look back at previous winners of this race and their times.
Samcro, going soft (with heavy patches), Time 5min 18sec.
Willoughby Court, going good to soft (good in places) Time 5min 9sec.
Yorkhill, going good (good to soft in places). Time 5min.
Now lets look at Jarveys Plate.
Jarveys Plate, going good to soft (good in places) Time 4min. 59sec.
Looking at the times and the going the horse he is most closely match with is Willoughby Court and he was still 10 sec. faster, now I know this is not an exact science but it shows Jarveys Plate must have a great chance in this race.

They were carrying 7lbs more over almost an extra furlong.

Midnight Shadow ran faster carrying 6 lbs more.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I have just been having a look back at previous winners of this race and their times.
Samcro, going soft (with heavy patches), Time 5min 18sec.
Willoughby Court, going good to soft (good in places) Time 5min 9sec.
Yorkhill, going good (good to soft in places). Time 5min.
Now lets look at Jarveys Plate.
Jarveys Plate, going good to soft (good in places) Time 4min. 59sec.
Looking at the times and the going the horse he is most closely match with is Willoughby Court and he was still 10 sec. faster, now I know this is not an exact science but it shows Jarveys Plate must have a great chance in this race.

FWIW Chris, I think Jarvey's Plate will be overlooked purely because of the trainer, made a small case for him some pages back on this thread too. Good thing for his supporters is you know you'll get a 'fair' price in comparison to some of the 'bigger' yards horses.

 

[Innoko]

Interesting (or not) stat is that this race has been won by 14 different trainers since 2000.

Originally, I had dismissed Jarveys Plate due to the trainer, but this stat has made me have a second look.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Interesting (or not) stat is that this race has been won by 14 different trainers since 2000.

Originally, I had dismissed Jarveys Plate due to the trainer, but this stat has made me have a second look.

Yep, and only Willie Mullins (4) & Nigel Twiston-Davies (2) have been the multiple winning trainers since then.

5 'low key' (at the time) trainers have won it too. Definitely a race not to avoid a trainer (if that's what you do) IMHO.