Ballyburn cheltenham target

[Odin]

I think you meant to say the Leopardstown Xmas race.

The patented Quevega fact checking service doing bits for FJ today :applouse:

... but yeah I did mean Xmas grade 1 :encouragement:

 

[Quevega]

The patented Quevega fact checking service doing bits for FJ today :applouse:

... but yeah I did mean Xmas grade 1 :encouragement:

I'm a lot busier on fucking youtube :highly_amused:

 

[Runragged]

I think the Dawn Run references are more to do with his breeding rather than anything he has done on the track. With that in mind I don't see him going much further than 2m unless performances on the track suggest otherwise.

 

[charlie]

I think the Dawn Run references are more to do with his breeding rather than anything he has done on the track. With that in mind I don't see him going much further than 2m unless performances on the track suggest otherwise.

I think the Dawn Run references are a statement of his versatility, not breeding. He has so much natural ability he could easily be effective over 2m and win an Arkle, but on paper you'd be hard pushed to find a horse better bred for staying chasing than Ballyburn. Obviously it's not exact science but his pedigree screams staying chaser. Pretty much every horse bought for significant money out of Old Moon wanted 3m, the Dams sire (Old Vic) produced Gold Cup winner Kicking King and Grand National winner Comply Or Die and his sire Flemensfirth farms top staying chasers with the likes of Imperial Commander, TOTG and multiple King George winners.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

He could of course do a Coneygree and run in and win the GC as a Novice.

I can't see Mullins believing this would make any sense.
It's no secret they have Ballyburn down as a Gold Cup horse so will work back from whenever they decide he is ready for that.
Galopin Des Champs is likely to be their main 2025 dart after which he will probably regress so they will be looking for a 2026 contender, if Ballyburn is that contender then he will need to be novice chasing this season.
I've always thought the horse wouldn't be seen over 2m again and whilst he may well have the speed for an Arkle the demise of the G1 Turners, for me, has increased the chances he heads for the BANC.
But of course we've been here many times before with Mullins in October and applying whatever logic we believe makes sense doesn't necessarily give us the right answer...

 

[Lobos]

Hand on heart I reckon he'll be racing on the Wednesday as well Ista.

At least 50% of the entire forum posts have been about him . You just know that it's all going to end in tears:cower:​​​​​​

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Hand on heart I reckon he'll be racing on the Wednesday as well Ista.

At least 50% of the entire forum posts have been about him . You just know that it's all going to end in tears:cower:​​​​​​

As you've said he's an exciting horse so he will command far more airtime than others, I actually think Mullins negative response to the Turners changes is directly related to the plans he had for Ballyburn and he now knows he has to go Arkle or BANC, though I'd be shocked if the BHA/JC did not discuss proposals with the most influential and successful festival trainer in festival history...

 

[Runragged]

I think the Dawn Run references are a statement of his versatility, not breeding. He has so much natural ability he could easily be effective over 2m and win an Arkle, but on paper you'd be hard pushed to find a horse better bred for staying chasing than Ballyburn. Obviously it's not exact science but his pedigree screams staying chaser. Pretty much every horse bought for significant money out of Old Moon wanted 3m, the Dams sire (Old Vic) produced Gold Cup winner Kicking King and Grand National winner Comply Or Die and his sire Flemensfirth farms top staying chasers with the likes of Imperial Commander, TOTG and multiple King George winners.

So you agree with me then that his breeding suggests 3m? Everything he has done on track suggests 2m, beating the Supreme winner by 7 lengths over 2m and then winning the Ballymore, a race synonymous with horses who have speed as opposed to stamina. To me he has done nothing yet to suggest he will be as effective, if not more at 3m. That's not to say he can't and won't and like you say on breeding he should be equally as comfortable. However, all that matters to me is what a horse does on track.

 

[charlie]

So you agree with me then that his breeding suggests 3m? Everything he has done on track suggests 2m, beating the Supreme winner by 7 lengths over 2m and then winning the Ballymore, a race synonymous with horses who have speed as opposed to stamina. To me he has done nothing yet to suggest he will be as effective, if not more at 3m. That's not to say he can't and won't and like you say on breeding he should be equally as comfortable. However, all that matters to me is what a horse does on track.

When you said 'I think the Dawn Run references are more to do with his breeding rather than anything he has done on the track' I read it as Dawn Run won a Gold Cup and thats what they think he'll be based on breeding. His best performance by a country mile was in the Ballymore and he hit the line hard having taken a keen hold, staying on powerfully up the hill with Paul not needing to touch him. The time was nothing to write home about, but there was nothing about that performance and the way he finished the race that indicated he wouldn't be fine over further, and, for all we know he could be even better over further. I get that its factually correct to say he beat the Supreme winner over 2m and as a statement its supports the 2m case (and it is) but we all know that Supreme was of a lower standard than normal and strictly speaking Ballyburn's only loss was over 2m which needs a mention, but I appreciate the excuse of a seasonal reappearance is entirely legitimate and he probably needed the run. Faugheen was the last horse I can remember winning the Ballymore then CH, but the vast majority who tried 2m hurdling fell up short, especially those with NH pedigrees.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Everything he has done on track suggests 2m, beating the Supreme winner by 7 lengths over 2m and then winning the Ballymore, a race synonymous with horses who have speed as opposed to stamina. To me he has done nothing yet to suggest he will be as effective, if not more at 3m. .

Interesting how we see things differently, everything I saw from him last year suggested he'd improve for a step up, he might just be a special horse who can win at pretty much every distance, there haven't been many of them over the years.
He quickened away from his Ballymore/Gallaghers field but I remember him hitting the line and thinking he's going quicker than anything at that point and another 3f would suit him well especially with the BANC being on the Old Course.
Time will tell but I'd struggle to believe right now 3m won't suit, that's not to say he wouldn't be a monster over 2m...

 

[Lobos]

Agree completely Ista. Got beat comfortably on debut over 2m. Won at DRF but beat arguably Ireland's 2nd best staying Novice Hurdler there in Slade Steel. Indeed when he won at Punchestown over the mid trip he did look in trouble for a few strides rounding the final bend when things quickened up. That said to me he'd be more comfortable over further again. Fences obviously may change things but he does look a stayer to me.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Interesting how we see things differently, everything I saw from him last year suggested he'd improve for a step up, he might just be a special horse who can win at pretty much every distance, there haven't been many of them over the years.
He quickened away from his Ballymore/Gallaghers field but I remember him hitting the line and thinking he's going quicker than anything at that point and another 3f would suit him well especially with the BANC being on the Old Course.
Time will tell but I'd struggle to believe right now 3m won't suit, that's not to say he wouldn't be a monster over 2m...

I think, as you note, he's potentially just a special horse.

I don't think trip will inconvenience him.

On breeding he looks one to go out in trip eventually, although some Flemensfirths have done really well over the minimum trip (Flemenstar & Tidal Bay the two that spring to mind), but does Willie want to send him straight out over 3m? I'm not so sure.

He could end up a Gold Cup horse but that doesn't mean he can't win races over differing trips on the way.

Arkle > Ryanair > Gold Cup - This is how I currently see him being campaigned with the festival only, in mind.

He could also go Arkle > Champion Chase > Gold Cup or go straight from the Arkle to the Gold Cup next season, that has been done previously, but usually by horses that have lost in the Arkle first.

Despite all of the above I've only backed him for the BANC with cash as I felt the price was too big. I have him covered for 'any race' anyway, but ultimately I feel he's too short for the Arkle given the current question marks over, not just his trip, but discipline, that he will end up taking this coming season. No guarantee he'll take to fences, though I suspect he will.

 

[Craigy14]

The Ballymore might have been Ballyburns best performance in peoples opinion, but the race was horse sh*t, think we can all agree on that.

I suppose this is why ratings can’t solely be taken to form a view and all areas need to be taken into context.

The DRF win and form looks rock solid, the supreme although poor on ratings has had nothing but boosts thus far (I’d give Slade steel a pass on the ground at Punchestown as well as notorious Punchestown form). Form of the Ballymore is awful, everything well beat in behind since. I also don’t think anything in behind would have gone close in the supreme either.

Agree with COD above that he is probably just a special horse.

 

[Runragged]

When you said 'I think the Dawn Run references are more to do with his breeding rather than anything he has done on the track' I read it as Dawn Run won a Gold Cup and thats what they think he'll be based on breeding. His best performance by a country mile was in the Ballymore and he hit the line hard having taken a keen hold, staying on powerfully up the hill with Paul not needing to touch him. The time was nothing to write home about, but there was nothing about that performance and the way he finished the race that indicated he wouldn't be fine over further, and, for all we know he could be even better over further. I get that its factually correct to say he beat the Supreme winner over 2m and as a statement its supports the 2m case (and it is) but we all know that Supreme was of a lower standard than normal and strictly speaking Ballyburn's only loss was over 2m which needs a mention, but I appreciate the excuse of a seasonal reappearance is entirely legitimate and he probably needed the run. Faugheen was the last horse I can remember winning the Ballymore then CH, but the vast majority who tried 2m hurdling fell up short, especially those with NH pedigrees.

Had a look at the last 15 winners of the Ballymore, excluding Ballyburn who hasn't had a chance in open company. Only two of those won at 3m+ over fences, Envoi Allen in a 5 runner Irish Champion Chase on yielding ground (and a very low topspeed) and First Lieutenant who seems the real exception to the rule of Ballymore winners not making 3m chasers as though he only won once (3m 1f Betfred Bowl on good ground) he did finish 2nd six times in open G1 3m+ chases. Now, Yorkhill did win at 2m 7 1/2f but as a 10yo in a handicap off a mark of 142! Only two others won over 3m in hurdles. Faugheen won an Irish Stayers and wasn't given a chance over 3m in a chase. Mikael D'Haugenet won a 4 runner in a slow time and was unplaced on his other 4 starts at 3m+ over both hurdles and fences.

The point I am making is that it is very rare that a Ballymore winner goes on to be a 3m chaser. Maybe he could be the exception? Trends and stats are always there to be broken and few of the winners would of had such a stamina laden breeding. However, he isn't short of speed so for him to have that combination of both speed and stamina would make him a superstar. As a pessimist I will side on the case of him having just the speed.

 

[Runragged]

Interesting how we see things differently, everything I saw from him last year suggested he'd improve for a step up, he might just be a special horse who can win at pretty much every distance, there haven't been many of them over the years.
He quickened away from his Ballymore/Gallaghers field but I remember him hitting the line and thinking he's going quicker than anything at that point and another 3f would suit him well especially with the BANC being on the Old Course.
Time will tell but I'd struggle to believe right now 3m won't suit, that's not to say he wouldn't be a monster over 2m...

See, to me it looked a typical Ballymore. Steadily run early on with everything able to travel before Ballyburn showed the speed he possessed to easily pull away from the field. Run the same style as many previous renewals, especially in recent years. The fact that Ballyburn, a horse who had a class edge on the field was quicker than the rest came as no surprise, though to me proved very little as to his stamina for further.

 

[Guinness Village]

Obviously gonna be a hot topic. Promising novice hurdler with Willie and target not yet decided. Must be a way of some related doubles

 

[charlie]

Had a look at the last 15 winners of the Ballymore, excluding Ballyburn who hasn't had a chance in open company. Only two of those won at 3m+ over fences, Envoi Allen in a 5 runner Irish Champion Chase on yielding ground (and a very low topspeed) and First Lieutenant who seems the real exception to the rule of Ballymore winners not making 3m chasers as though he only won once (3m 1f Betfred Bowl on good ground) he did finish 2nd six times in open G1 3m+ chases. Now, Yorkhill did win at 2m 7 1/2f but as a 10yo in a handicap off a mark of 142! Only two others won over 3m in hurdles. Faugheen won an Irish Stayers and wasn't given a chance over 3m in a chase. Mikael D'Haugenet won a 4 runner in a slow time and was unplaced on his other 4 starts at 3m+ over both hurdles and fences.

The point I am making is that it is very rare that a Ballymore winner goes on to be a 3m chaser. Maybe he could be the exception? Trends and stats are always there to be broken and few of the winners would have had such a stamina laden breeding. However, he isn't short of speed so for him to have that combination of both speed and stamina would make him a superstar. As a pessimist I will side on the case of him having just the speed.

How many of those 15 did we basically never see again, how many remained over hurdles and how many weren't given a chance over 3m? Once you've answered those questions 15 quickly becomes 7 so I wouldn't say its very rare. 2 of those won Grade 1 chases in open company over 3m and 4 of those 7 won at the festival over 2m5f, which we know isn't an option anymore. You're right about it not being the most likely route though but to flip the script, barring GW, how many horses in the last 15 years have gone Ballymore then won a Grade 1 over fences over 2m? This is a good debate and I appreciate the stats/detail.

 

[opatcho]

I’ll be bold here

Ballyburn doesn’t win any race at the festival

I’ve learnt my lesson trying to follow in Ballymore winners the next year, sir G, IEP, Bob O… etcccc

faugheen the standout but we’re talking 1 out of 9… 10 Ballymore winners

Against.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I’ll be bold here

Ballyburn doesn’t win any race at the festival

I’ve learnt my lesson trying to follow in Ballymore winners the next year, sir G, IEP, Bob O… etcccc

faugheen the standout but we’re talking 1 out of 9… 10 Ballymore winners

Against.

Bob O actually did win, well, we all know he would have been beaten out of sight by the future duel Gold Cup winner but the obstacles are there to navigate....

 

[charlie]

I’ll be bold here

Ballyburn doesn’t win any race at the festival

I’ve learnt my lesson trying to follow in Ballymore winners the next year, sir G, IEP, Bob O… etcccc

faugheen the standout but we’re talking 1 out of 9… 10 Ballymore winners

Against.

I like bold opinions and challenging short priced ante post favs and we should be encouraging them at this time of the year. If you went through the last 20 years and documented all the horses we were bullish about now, only a tiny number actually turn into what we thought they'd be. For all we are split on Arkle/BANC, I think we'd all pretty much agree that if the Turners hadn't been changed then thats where he would have ended up if they went chasing. It might leave them between a rock and hard place. If he still takes a keen hold would be get outstayed in a BANC? Could something emerge in the Arkle market that has more speed? Will be fascinating to see how this plays out but I really do hope they go chasing, hurdles would be a waste IMO.