I seem to remember reading somewhere that JDV is ‘narrow and small’. If so I wonder where it will have the scope required for the Gallagher- maybe Supreme might be a better fit.
I wouldn't be too concerned about that. This is what I try to look for when I assess which way Willie's Novice Hurdlers will go:
A free running sort that jumps hurdles nicely will usually head to the Supreme.
A relaxed type and easy to settle, but perhaps a bit slower over hurdles will go to the Gallaghers.
A relaxed type that is easy to settle, that jumps hurdles adequately could go either way.
Not a precise thing, but worth being in the mix, is the Mullins French breds and ex Flat tend to have more success in the Supreme, and the Ex-Pointers (unless they specifically ran in a 2m4f point), tend to have more success in the Gallaghers.
Paul Townend will want the two highest rated horses to be split across the two races. The criteria above will definitely be used, but if there's little to separate, it's worth considering where they'll end up in the future based on breeding, Gold Cup, Ryanair, or Champion Chase. That generally will be the final arbiter if it's there is virtually nothing between two horses..
Willie will have a battalion of horses to choose from as usual so it's much better to assess as the season goes on, but I'd be watching out for his that started their racing life out in France to see if one develops as his top Supreme contender, because I'd be very happy with Jasmin de Vaux emerging as a Gallaghers type.
At this stage before we find out about those that are unraced, or have only run in minor bumpers there are three that are on my radar:
Salvador Mundi - The formline is obvious with Sir Gino. He ran in the Triumph on debut for Mullins, and that was blatantly for experience. Even then he was only beaten 3 lengths by Nurburgring who recently won the Galway Hurdle and is now rated 150. He has run over the summer in a maiden hurdle for further experience, winning by 62l giving weight away. I think he is a very exciting prospect for this season. I think there is sufficient cross form to suggest he can quickly improve to the 150+ horse he'll need to be, and as a 4 yo rising 5 he'll have more relevant early experience than anything other than a talented ex-French new season import. There's no reason to think of him as anything other than a Supreme type.
Jasmin de Vaux - Initially I'm inclined to think of him as more of Gallagher's horse than a Supreme horse. What he does over hurdles may change that view though. He's an ex-pointer and those types tend to do better in the Gallaghers for Willie than they do in the Supreme. That doesn't mean he won't be a Supreme type though, but only Appreciate It has fit that bill for Willie in the last decade, and he only ended up there after an injury to Ferny Hollow, who was a speedy type who ran in a 2m4f point and never over 3 miles. Incidentally Appreciate It also debuted in a 2m4f Point, but was beaten and then stepped up to 3m next time.
Kopek Des Bordes - Doesn't fit either the ex-French bred or debuted in a Point, given he made his debut in a Bumper two weeks after the Festival. The timing of that, and the fact that he is only a 4yo suggests he has been given time to mature and to learn how to deal with life in training at Closutton. Young horses can start getting a bit light after a few months in training, so he was obviously thought of as strong enough to run in a bumper to get some experience. I'd say the fact that he won so comprehensively in a good time would have surprised them. I suspect hey knew he had ability, but the race was for experience and a cosy win being pushed out would have been more than enough. It's worth remembering he beat Clap of Thunder giving him 5lbs, by a lengthening 13 lengths, who himself had previously only been beaten 4 lengths in the valuable Newbury Bumper on Betfair Hurdle day at Newbury, won by Royal Infantry, who was 8th and beaten 17l by Jasmin de Vaux in the Champion Bumper. You can't take all of that literally, but that suggests to me that he wasn't far short of JdV, and that was his racecourse debut. Any horse that puts up a 124RPR on Bumper debut is one that should go straight into any tracker. He's harder to weigh up in terms of The Supreme or The Gallaghers though. What I will say is that 'No Risk At All's' tend to stick to 2 miles in their novice hurdle seasons, and are relatively sharp early types. They tend to go up in trip as they develop stamina in time. His Dam progeny all seem to have operated at their best between 2m and 2m6f, with the step up in trip being later in their careers. She's had a number of progeny, and only one has won over 3m and that was just the once, first time stepped up to the trip over a sharp 3m on quick ground. The horse despite being multiple winner never won over the trip again. My overall feeling is that if his jumping is up to scratch he will stay at 2 miles. If he's slower or prone to mistakes then a step up to 2 and half miles shouldn't be an issue.
As I said though, with all three, and the fact that Willie will have new recruits to add to the mix, it would be impossible to be completely confident of where any of the three will go, and any bets in the novice hurdles this early should always come with a health warning. Not least because we have Henderson, Elliott, and De Bromhead horses to throw into the mix too.
