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Arkle - 2021

Kevloaf

Kevloaf

Apparently came 3rd overall in the Fantasy Premier
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Happy Shishkin day everyone.


Debut today, thread closed?


I'll edit this properly with the race conditions etc later on...





How excited are we for this debut?
 
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Still time to back him for the CH, just in case he's a dud over fences......
 
Not sure I'm excited....... shitting myself more like ! Same as when Envoi made his debut. Loads of AP bets involving Shishkin . He is one of the 'biggies' . Just hope we are all saying good things on here post race. Everything crossed !
 
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I can’t wait to see him! I’m the same as I have him in lots of bets for Cheltenham,I think we’re goin to see something special today!
 
I just hope that he has a better debut over fences than he did over hurdles!
Like many, he is the bedrock of many a multiple.

It goes without saying that a relatively easy victory and proof that he can jump a fence is what we all want :amen:
 
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I think regardless of what Shiskin does today he won’t have it all his own way in March in this race, I think the Irish challenge is strong from what I’ve seen of Felix, Unexcepted and Easywork. Hopefully he does win today to keep their prices double figures for a while but this race could be a real competitive race.
 
The auto praise is going to be amazing :triumphant:
 
The forum will go bananas if he debuts similar to Altior and Sprinter Sacre :love_heart:
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
The forum will go bananas if he debuts similar to Altior and Sprinter Sacre :love_heart:
Click to expand...

I remember the Altior one so well, as champion of the Altior / Yorkhill double that year. :highly_amused:

Which reminds me of this from my diary on 16th March 2020

Kevloaf said:
Aiming to do the anaysis like in previous years before really thinking about next years festival and I like to give myself a few weeks before I do that so I come at it with fresh eyes.

That said, I have placed a few bets so far...


41/1 Shishkin / Envoi Allen - Arkle/Marsh
I've just got a feeling these two will be similar to Altior and Yorkhill when they went Novice Chasing. They're on different sides of Irish Sea and I think they'll be kept apart all year (easy enough to do until March anyway, obviously).

Hendo has likened Shishkin to Altior, Supreme winners have that good record in the Arkle and Nicky doesn't go up in trip until he has to... Shishkin was fantastic to win a G1 on his 3rd start when he hadn't even been in a graded race prior, and it means to me he's now impossible to ignore as the most exciting 2 mile novice chaser going forward.

As impressive as Shishkin was, Envoi Allen was better (and the proximity of Abacadabras to Shishkin lends itself to that theory). I was sure all year he was heading for the Ballymore (the Samcro route) and I'm pretty sure that'll follow the same path with EA (but avoid the Champion Hurdle campaign)! I don't think (despite being different owners) that Elliott will make that mistake again. There is a strong looking set of 3m novice chasers, and whilst I have no doubt Envoi Allen could mix it with them (as he could also mix it with the 2 milers) that he'll end up over this intermediate trip again, before exploring whether he's a Gold Cup horse the year after...


Placed 2.5 pts on this so far, I won't get carried away as it's not set in stone on the targets by any stretch (it's just my educated opinion).

I have no doubt either that this bet won't look great at some point, as some exciting Novice Chasers start appearing, but regardless, these to me are top prospects and while I'm flush, I could resist given how much joy I got from the Altior/Yorkhill theory
Click to expand...

Fingers crossed.....
 
I can't imagine anyone on here not being on the Shishkin/Envoi, Shishkin/Epatante doubles. Those 2 and the Shishkin/Al Boum Photo double will do for me. Those 4 winning isn't a lot to ask for is it ??:love_heart:
 
Shishkin is currently 9/4 - are we all in agreement that significant shortening (ie. 11/8 or shorter) will be ridiculous off the back of a facile win today, 4 months out from Cheltenham? How much shorter can the bookies go? Even if he blows them away is anyone on here going to get on at a price that short?

I don't have a bean on Shishkin for these 3 reasons:

1. I can't bring myself to take short prices this early, and I thought 4/1 (I think that's what it was) was short in September, so you can imagine how I feel about 9/4 before he's even jumped a fence in public. Keep telling myself it will stand me in good stead long term, despite being a little tempted :devilish:

2. Because I've failed in spectacular fashion to get him rolled up (thanks Arsenal, thanks Villa:))

3. This time last year I was getting him at 40's and 36's, so I feel like he owes me nothing and I can look elsewhere

If it emerges today that he's a real forum horse and loads of you are on then I hope he does the business and we can do battle in march - personally, I love the horse and wish him all the best, he's just not carrying my money at those prices. :)
 
Lobos said:
I can't imagine anyone on here not being on the Shishkin/Envoi, Shishkin/Epatante doubles. Those 2 and the Shishkin/Al Boum Photo double will do for me. Those 4 winning isn't a lot to ask for is it ??:love_heart:
Click to expand...

Go back through the archive threads on here for the last 5 years and chart the 'bomb proof' horses that were all the rage in November, vs eventual winners in March.

I'll tip you off to spare you the time, it makes for very grim reading, unless your a bookie :)
 
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9/4 is crazy isn't it! Doesn't even look like a weak Arkle at the moment either.

I obviously hope he bolts up but the price is incredibly short.
 
Charlie - Cant you get him in a sneaky roll up in today like Hakoah Amidar Ramat Gan to beat Hapoel Bnei Lod? :congratulatory::congratulatory::congratulatory::congratulatory:
 
charlie said:
Shishkin is currently 9/4 - are we all in agreement that significant shortening (ie. 11/8 or shorter) will be ridiculous off the back of a facile win today, 4 months out from Cheltenham? How much shorter can the bookies go? Even if he blows them away is anyone on here going to get on at a price that short?

I don't have a bean on Shishkin for these 3 reasons:

1. I can't bring myself to take short prices this early, and I thought 4/1 (I think that's what it was) was short in September, so you can imagine how I feel about 9/4 before he's even jumped a fence in public. Keep telling myself it will stand me in good stead long term, despite being a little tempted :devilish:

2. Because I've failed in spectacular fashion to get him rolled up (thanks Arsenal, thanks Villa:))

3. This time last year I was getting him at 40's and 36's, so I feel like he owes me nothing and I can look elsewhere

If it emerges today that he's a real forum horse and loads of you are on then I hope he does the business and we can do battle in march - personally, I love the horse and wish him all the best, he's just not carrying my money at those prices. :)
Click to expand...

4. You know Elixir D'ainay wins the Arkle
5. Or Klassical Dream


On 1, are you on Envoi Allen though at what was a similar price? (Personally, I've always held EA above him)


I don't really think anyone can knock, not taking, single figure prices ante post. In the long run, that would be a sensible decision. You'll come up against the "he'll be shorter on the day" argument, but that should be countered with the bird in the hand and two in the bush. The amount of stake needed to be risked, to win a significant amount, is worth weighing up. It is higher risk, lower reward.

I have managed to roll up on to Shishkin, he's been one I've been lucky with - the roll up strategy compensates for the above by making it 'higher reward' although it's still "high risk".



The ideal is low risk, high reward, of course... :)
 
Hardy Eustace said:
9/4 is crazy isn't it! Doesn't even look like a weak Arkle at the moment either.

I obviously hope he bolts up but the price is incredibly short.
Click to expand...

Yep it's early days but Mullins in particular has several possibilities.
Shishkin may beat all there is over here.
But the Irish challenge ought to hold the price up a bit.
Obviously they may all end up beating each other over in Ireland, but if one Champion emerges then Shishkin might not even be favourite. Or at the very least the value will be with the Irish No1.
 
Kevloaf said:
4. You know Elixir D'ainay wins the Arkle
5. Or Klassical Dream


On 1, are you on Envoi Allen though at what was a similar price? (Personally, I've always held EA above him)


I don't really think anyone can knock, not taking, single figure prices ante post. In the long run, that would be a sensible decision. You'll come up against the "he'll be shorter on the day" argument, but that should be countered with the bird in the hand and two in the bush. The amount of stake needed to be risked, to win a significant amount, is worth weighing up. It is higher risk, lower reward.

I have managed to roll up on to Shishkin, he's been one I've been lucky with - the roll up strategy compensates for the above by making it 'higher reward' although it's still "high risk".

The ideal is low risk, high reward
Click to expand...

5. Yes please Kev!!

Re EA, same as Shishkin really. Don't want this to come across too much like back patting :witless:, but as a 33/1 bumper winner and 10/1 TWAR winner last year, it leaves me with little interest in backing him at those prices. Rather invest time and money in trying to get him beat (apparently he's unbeatable already :devilish:)

I suppose the argument for the Arkle single bets too, especially over the last 10 years is 7 of the favs in November would have won in March (I won't name those 3 and certainly not THAT ONE:devilish:)
 
He'd have to be exceptional to be 11/8 after today - I'd think about laying him if he hit that.

He was 5/1 for most of the summer and can't really understand why he has shortened to the price he is today.

The 150/1 Shishkin/EA to go unbeaten is turning into a fun bet, especially for these early season races.
 
charlie said:
Go back through the archive threads on here for the last 5 years and chart the 'bomb proof' horses that were all the rage in November, vs eventual winners in March.

I'll tip you off to spare you the time, it makes for very grim reading, unless your a bookie :)
Click to expand...

Absolutely. No such thing as bomb proof Charlie. Just look at last year.....Tiger, Paisley Park, Benie, Altior/Chancun/Defi, Gypsy Island, Appreciate It.......probably missed loads.
 
Lobos said:
Absolutely. No such thing as bomb proof Charlie. Just look at last year.....Tiger, Paisley Park, Benie, Altior/Chancun/Defi, Gypsy Island, Appreciate It.......probably missed loads.
Click to expand...

Exactly, hence why focusing on bomb proof doubles, trebles, quadruples 4 months out from the fez is a great way to chip away at any eventual profit one might make
 
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