Quevega
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agree with that.
probably not good enough for either, but might be one of the better UK chances, in the arkle.
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Arkle 2020
- Thread starter billymag
- Start date
agree with that.
probably not good enough for either, but might be one of the better UK chances, in the arkle.
TCH29
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Agree, I think the Arkle market could fall apart. At best you have Laurina (unproven at Cheltenham and possibly too short a distance) and Fakir (5 yr old in the Arkle) at the top of the market. Everything probably won’t run until you get to Al Dancer who just got beat by a raider, when race fit.
Brewin’ has good form at Cheltenham, just didn’t quite stay the Ballymore, has won over fences twice, and on debut had a stonking clock time at 2m. Run him in the Arkle. It’s obvious.
The JLT looks much much hotter, especially given Laurina could turn up there. Samcro, Laurina, Reserve Tank, Angels Breath...all winners over a similar distance already. All with no stamina concerns.
Pendil
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Does anyone know if we’re expecting to see Felix Desjy anytime soon? I’m sure recall Elliott saying he would go chasing over the 2m trip.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Was injured but small murmurs on Twitter that he was coming back from injury, but no official word yet. They also have Notebook available to them.
What was the rubbish horse not long ago (poss last season) that Mullins ran in the "right races" so looked like he could be an Arkle horse - and he just wasn't near up to it?
Dico something? I think it had a D in it :highly_amused:
However, I do like the 'creature of habit' kind of theory and which horses have won races histroically as a guide.
Cash Back is certainly under the radar because of the owner...
Having already backed Laurina and Tornado Flyer it would be silly for me not to consider him when he's "keeping them apart" as it does imply he's in the reckoning for the race.
I haven't backed him but I'll definitely have to look into it.... either way, a good spot/angle.
Quevega
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I waited till I found an after race quote from Mullins, and was encouraged with the same words.
I also backed for arkle on back of same words, about the forward going etc.
wether he ends up good enough is another thing, but at the moment if it was him and tornado in arkle and laurina JLT, i'd have him in front, but this could easily change.
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just realised ive the option to cash out Al Dancer bet for the arkle to break even, whats peoples opinion on where we stand, he looked to stay on again to me in defeat, has anyone heard if they are thinking of stepping him up in trip ??
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
My frank response is he's not good enough. And could definitely see him up in trip at some point.
I can cash for profit. But I see no reason to do so personally. For me, he has a better chance than a 33/1 shot.
Look how many injuries happened last year too, how many deemed better than him will make it. I only see fakir and laurina potentially better. I'd have notebook running to around no better than on a par with al dancer when you take into account the weight.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Based on this I'd be keeping an E/W bet, the race does cut up, so 33's E/W is very solid.
Humble Pie
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ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
As noted in the diary section, Vision Des Flos interests me at a big price (50 & 40/1 available).
His best form is over shorter generally, although they massively messed around with his trip whilst hurdling, he probably had some growing up to do and can only think he was sent for experience on some occasions.
His Ballymore run at the festival was very solid, but it means he has form below Samcro & Black Op, two horses ahead of him in the betting for the JLT, so unless he's improved half a stone (what I think he needs minimum), and they haven't, I don't think he'd be challenging them two.
His form over 2m 4f+ is: 2nd (of 4 runners), 3rd (5), 4th (6), 6th (10), 6th (14), 18th (25) & a UR, for me it would not feel me with confidence have him go over a longer trip.
His 2m - 2m 3f form is: 1st (6), 1st (5), 1st (16), 2nd (5), 2nd (10), 2nd (13), 2nd (11), 3rd (5), 3rd (5), 3rd (9) & 5th (8), a much more solid looking animal over the shorter trips, one of the wins includes a Grade 2 victory, and two of the 2nd's are Grade 1 novice hurdles.
Ideally a 2m 2f-2m 3f trip would be his to own I think, but he doesn't have that to aim at at the festival, so it will be between the Arkle & the JLT, of which I'd be interested in him in the former.
At such a big price he is one I'm happy to throw some pennies at. The 'any race' option is also available 25/1 (can be boosted), of which I have backed also.
His best form is over shorter generally, although they massively messed around with his trip whilst hurdling, he probably had some growing up to do and can only think he was sent for experience on some occasions.
His Ballymore run at the festival was very solid, but it means he has form below Samcro & Black Op, two horses ahead of him in the betting for the JLT, so unless he's improved half a stone (what I think he needs minimum), and they haven't, I don't think he'd be challenging them two.
His form over 2m 4f+ is: 2nd (of 4 runners), 3rd (5), 4th (6), 6th (10), 6th (14), 18th (25) & a UR, for me it would not feel me with confidence have him go over a longer trip.
His 2m - 2m 3f form is: 1st (6), 1st (5), 1st (16), 2nd (5), 2nd (10), 2nd (13), 2nd (11), 3rd (5), 3rd (5), 3rd (9) & 5th (8), a much more solid looking animal over the shorter trips, one of the wins includes a Grade 2 victory, and two of the 2nd's are Grade 1 novice hurdles.
Ideally a 2m 2f-2m 3f trip would be his to own I think, but he doesn't have that to aim at at the festival, so it will be between the Arkle & the JLT, of which I'd be interested in him in the former.
At such a big price he is one I'm happy to throw some pennies at. The 'any race' option is also available 25/1 (can be boosted), of which I have backed also.
Quevega
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https://www.attheraces.com/news/201...vous-enters-big-race-calculations-for-mullins
Rendesvouz in the mix now for leopardstown and, change of plan for tornado and navan next ??
Tornado's maiden form not quite stacking up, although hard to weigh up i'd say.
ComplyOrDie
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Tornado needs further, and I'm sure in time he'll get it, either that or he's just an average 2 miler. Royal Rendezvous done it well, but massive gap between what Fakir & Melon done to Milan Native and what RR did today. Obviously his first run though so open to plenty of improvement. Will be 8 at the festival, so probably not one I'd consider again.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Yeah, when he made a race ending mistake when in contention. I did actually want him to go up in trip too, and I've surprised myself thinking he'll go shorter trip novice chasing, but its what I believe and I back myself.