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Arkle 2020

Morley Street said:
Early info much appreciated CoD, no apologies needed whatsoever IMO.

I was a big supporter of Laurina last year and despite the race being laid on a plate for her, was left bitterly disappointed. Perhaps chasing was always going to be her game but for me she’s got plenty to prove in open company and I’d be surprised if she has the pace for this.
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Can see where you're coming from.

But she might not need to have much pace to beat the likely opponents.
Most look slow anyway.
She has to beat Melon 'possibly' and she has shown she's not far off him and more likely to improve based on age and exposure.
And then a bunch of novice hurdlers from last season who couldn't even win in their class, and looked like stayers running on past beaten horses who'd gone faster (championship pace) than they'd ever had to go.
City Island would be a likely contender in this but it appears they're definitely thinking further at the moment.

14-1 is a very big price for this race alone. 75% better return than the mode price in the market.

The issue is she could still end up in half a dozen races depending on how things conspire.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
My mistake was then explaining myself, I have my reasons for initially only putting 'Jared's Mare is going chasing', this is an open forum viewed by many outsiders (bit of a hint why it was hush) who don't register on here.

Anyway, let's move on, there are plenty more horses and races to get stuck in to :)
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This part of the forum isn't 'open' to the public....

:encouragement: http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?38-Fat-Jockey-Betting-Forum



A very sensible play to back even after the stable tour came out... I'm shocked she hasn't shortened yet?!
 
I actually didn't know that existed!
 
Kevloaf said:
This part of the forum isn't 'open' to the public....

:encouragement: http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?38-Fat-Jockey-Betting-Forum



A very sensible play to back even after the stable tour came out... I'm shocked she hasn't shortened yet?!
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Her forms nothing out of the ordinary , she's already priced short enough imo. Theres also the high value mares graded chases dotted either side of Cheltenham ie the vroum vroum mag route. You just know Shes going to be dotted around in the same Mickey mouse races vroum vroum, listen dear, camellia de Cote and pravalaguna ran in, in the lead up to chelt. And then she may be thrown in the deep end of the arkle or JLT. Doesn't do it for me..
hopefully they show a bit more ambition than that in the lead up as the hype of her beating trees is getting very boring.
 
Just to note if they showed some ambition and went the la bague au Roi, shattered love route. It would be good for the game.
 
The fact Faugheen has come in at 11 rising 12 as 3rd fav and 16/1 hammers home the lack of any stand out horses here. Next 2 days could hopefully lay down the first markers, Al Dancer being one I hope for
 
Have to admit scooby when i put up my post relating to the 12/1 and would there be any takers, i was also meaning...isn't she short enough!!

Sadly we didn't learn enough about her again last year. I don't blame the trainer on that count totally. If i rememeber correctly there was 1 race they missed that had softer going on offer, but in general it wasn't a superb year for WPM ground wise. Still, she didn't face the boys bar in the Champion + she wasn't great.

To me she'd be quite interesting here as the race looks weak but if the JLT turns up as hot is it looks, she's not deserved of her price IMO.
 
jack1092 said:
Have to admit scooby when i put up my post relating to the 12/1 and would there be any takers, i was also meaning...isn't she short enough!!

Sadly we didn't learn enough about her again last year. I don't blame the trainer on that count totally. If i rememeber correctly there was 1 race they missed that had softer going on offer, but in general it wasn't a superb year for WPM ground wise. Still, she didn't face the boys bar in the Champion + she wasn't great.

To me she'd be quite interesting here as the race looks weak but if the JLT turns up as hot is it looks, she's not deserved of her price IMO.
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I think the JLT would be the one at this stage. However im sure they'll look at it close to the time and weigh up the strength and depth of each race.

I may try and find something to boost her price in the JLT, but then I'm kind of defeating the object of not wanting her at 12s. Especially if I couple her with a short priced loser. Shes not going to run for a long while, whether that will see her shorten or drift with others coming out inbetween, time will tell.
 
You'd say that it was the first phase of the plan to win the inaugural running of the Mares Chase in 2021.
 
Opinions please chaps.

Obviously I have backed Laurina for both the Arkle and JLT, with 7pts on each (my biggest single win bets), but I am debating whether or not to cash and place the lot on 'any race' given WPM's record of changing things around. I'm sure it would only take an injury to BDD or Laurina not to go well over fences for her to be back over hurdles.

The prices are 14/1 (Arkle) & 12/1 (JLT), but these have the options of cash out, if I am quick enough! The 'any race' price is 5/1 which also has a slight boost available.

I backed the individual prices because I was expecting the market to react more, which it hasn't and therefore I am in no better position or ahead of the market as I felt I could have been.

I want Laurina on side, that's a definite, I just wouldn't mind some opinions in what they feel is the best option.
 
Firstly COD thank you for your post “ Laurina”, full of good intent however I haven’t backed her as don’t see her currently a good betting proposition.
She certainly wouldn’t be my biggest single bet but each to their own .
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Opinions please chaps.

Obviously I have backed Laurina for both the Arkle and JLT, with 7pts on each (my biggest single win bets), but I am debating whether or not to cash and place the lot on 'any race' given WPM's record of changing things around. I'm sure it would only take an injury to BDD or Laurina not to go well over fences for her to be back over hurdles.

The prices are 14/1 (Arkle) & 12/1 (JLT), but these have the options of cash out, if I am quick enough! The 'any race' price is 5/1 which also has a slight boost available.

I backed the individual prices because I was expecting the market to react more, which it hasn't and therefore I am in no better position or ahead of the market as I felt I could have been.

I want Laurina on side, that's a definite, I just wouldn't mind some opinions in what they feel is the best option.
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Any race would be madness. She might even avoid chelt and go for the valuable graded mares chase at limerick . Could get injured ... awful price imo If she ends up going for the arkle/ JLT.

On the other hand, if she gets injured and you've doubled an already large stake on her by backing for arkle and JLT with cashout. you've got to be on the case within seconds and hope for the best. It stressed me out personally last year checking for injuries all day. Such was my stakes at the time. Very glad I dont NEED to win now. All be it I intend to.
 
Scooby91 said:
It stressed me out personally last year checking for injuries all day. Such was my stakes at the time.
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I can definitely relate to this, it's not healthy.

Thanks for the opinion too, at least if I do any race I can't cash anyway so no stress, I just lose :highly_amused:

The feeling behind the 'any race' was that if she takes to fences she will win and in no way is she going off bigger than 5's anyway. If she's crap over them then it's back over hurdles and I have a live bet, probably at poorer value, but a live bet all the same.
 
On one hand, I am gutted that I don't have the "cash-out" option... BUT it does mean that I don't have decisions to make during the season on EVERY horse.
I guess that's why I utilise the Free Bet route as much as possible (for as long as certain bookies will keep letting me earn them)
 
What are the thoughts on Annamix for this?

Another Mullins runner to try and predict but low mileage over hurdles, is going novice chasing confirmed by Ricci. He seems hopeful he still retains the ability that brought the supreme hype of 2 seasons ago before injury. Would have liked to have heard an update on the stable tour but not to be, same price as Draconien at 33/1
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Opinions please chaps.

Obviously I have backed Laurina for both the Arkle and JLT, with 7pts on each (my biggest single win bets), but I am debating whether or not to cash and place the lot on 'any race' given WPM's record of changing things around. I'm sure it would only take an injury to BDD or Laurina not to go well over fences for her to be back over hurdles.

The prices are 14/1 (Arkle) & 12/1 (JLT), but these have the options of cash out, if I am quick enough! The 'any race' price is 5/1 which also has a slight boost available.

I backed the individual prices because I was expecting the market to react more, which it hasn't and therefore I am in no better position or ahead of the market as I felt I could have been.

I want Laurina on side, that's a definite, I just wouldn't mind some opinions in what they feel is the best option.
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Not sure what's changed ?
What would you have done had her price shortened ?

If it's nothing, then you're in the same position. Her price will likely alter at some stage, due to her or others.
Whether cash out is available or not has to be viewed as a possible out, a nice to have and not to be relied upon.
Basically you've got to view it as money spent.
If you're now in two minds you maybe ought to lower stakes a little, especially this far out with so little evidence.

Your money is definitely spent going any race, and the odds are poor IMO. The risks of not getting a run is reduced but as Scooby said, there's a greater chance that she misses the festival altogether for some reason or another and not just run in the wrong race.

You'd be as well trying to get some fancy win prices on the exchanges during the season for the other races (using small stakes, possibly taken from your original 14pts laid down), to lay off a little.
 
Craigy14 said:
What are the thoughts on Annamix for this?

Another Mullins runner to try and predict but low mileage over hurdles, is going novice chasing confirmed by Ricci. He seems hopeful he still retains the ability that brought the supreme hype of 2 seasons ago before injury. Would have liked to have heard an update on the stable tour but not to be, same price as Draconien at 33/1
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I think Annamix will be best up in trip myself.
 
I'd wait for Laurina to win a Mickey mouse chase and she'll get clipped.

Definitely wouldn't cash it now ... she's going chasing and therefore won't get any bigger than she is now.

October is all about putting yourself in positions top be ahead of the SP.

The reason I am surprised she hasn't shortened is because I expect a lot of people to back her because of her name...

I think she's going to be a good trading opportunity to either have her running for free, or turn a profit after she wins on chase debut
 
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