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Arkle 2019

delsie777 said:
I cant remember the specific formline off the top of my head - but I remember that earlier in the season Ruby was quite dismissive of that form given a line through Ornua. He said something along the lines of the form being suspect because Ornua's form was not all that. Sorry to be a bit vague but thought I should mention it. It stuck in my mind.
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Ruby

In this race there’s Jenkins, Ok Corral and The Russian Doyen for the English trainers.


When you look at last week, for example, and Ornua getting so close to Paul Nicholls’ horse at Sandown, you’d have to think that at the minute the Irish horses are a little ahead of their English counterparts, with the exception perhaps of Kalashnikov.

But there doesn’t look to be a standout over this trip in England at the moment. This looks an open race. Whatever wins here could go on and win the Dipper on New Year’s Day. I don’t know if there’s great strength-in-depth with the English novices currently.
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https://news.paddypower.com/horse-racing/2018/12/14/ruby-walsh-willie-mullins-fasola-tido-farid/

Not a great bit of tipping on that link
 
delsie777 said:
I cant remember the specific formline off the top of my head - but I remember that earlier in the season Ruby was quite dismissive of that form given a line through Ornua. He said something along the lines of the form being suspect because Ornua's form was not all that. Sorry to be a bit vague but thought I should mention it. It stuck in my mind.
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Yeah, something that has been mentioned on here, initially by Scooby I think. If that form line is taken literally then then Irish still hold the cards.

Ornua was within 1 3/4 lengths of Dynamite Dollars @ Sandown and a further 10 lengths ahead of Lalor. I would think Hardline & DDG would be ahead of Ornua, who has form ties with Cadmium for WPM to know where he should stand with DDG.
 
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If you believe the handicapper, Cadmium is better than Lalor. That would give Hardline a definite squeak.
 
scratching around in a trough this race int it.
for scraps.
Glen Forsa is easily the most solid, with Lalor as a possible.
rest are rubbish and third division at best.
 
I've said previously that i think Ornua will be suited more to Aintree, so hopefully he goes there after here. Hes a trailblazer and likes good ground. Been seen as more of a summer horse in the past and since this season has basically been like a summer campaign he's held his form decently.

His wins have come at sharper tracks like Roscomman, Wexford and Newton Abbot where he can trailblaze and not get caught, whereas at tougher finishing tracks like Galway + Sandown he gets caught. Granted they've also had soft ground those times. I wouldn't fancy his chances of stealing a lead in this race given he'll have competition for it.

Patience + he'll hopefully outrun his odds at Aintree if he goes...
 
The value NRNB is Pravalaguna still available at 40/1. If they decide to go with VDR and RS in the JLT they will come here with her and DDG. If it cuts up as expected, the 40/1 could look big with the Mares allowance and Paul T probably in the saddle.
 
delsie777 said:
The value NRNB is Pravalaguna still available at 40/1. If they decide to go with VDR and RS in the JLT they will come here with her and DDG. If it cuts up as expected, the 40/1 could look big with the Mares allowance and Paul T probably in the saddle.
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Nice price + in a week year i guess! Form awful tho!
 
quevega said:
scratching around in a trough this race int it.
for scraps.
Glen Forsa is easily the most solid, with Lalor as a possible.
rest are rubbish and third division at best.
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Spot on Q
Enough scratching from me, be drawing blood next :-))
My pocket and now my head ( was upset not JLT bound ) say Glen Forsa
 
jack1092 said:
Nice price + in a week year i guess! Form awful tho!
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Was a decent hurdler and looks a better chaser. Last run was decent I thought and the step back in trip seemed to suit. Only 10/1 any race because wherever she goes she will shorten considerably. You were looking for value and 40/1 with NRNB is value as the stable have her and DDG 5/1 matched pretty closely given she'd get 7lbs. Personally I'd have her over Kalashnikov, Paloma Blue etc. all day long if she came here. Even the market leaders aren't bombproof are they? Glen Forza was a 3 mile handicapper the week before last and Lalor looked really disappointing last time. If you didn't get a big price about DDG, then Hardline is probably the bet - but value? Prav would be much, much shorter if she comes this way.
 
delsie777 said:
Was a decent hurdler and looks a better chaser. Last run was decent I thought and the step back in trip seemed to suit. Only 10/1 any race because wherever she goes she will shorten considerably. You were looking for value and 40/1 with NRNB is value as the stable have her and DDG 5/1 matched pretty closely given she'd get 7lbs. Personally I'd have her over Kalashnikov, Paloma Blue etc. all day long if she came here. Even the market leaders aren't bombproof are they? Glen Forza was a 3 mile handicapper the week before last and Lalor looked really disappointing last time. If you didn't get a big price about DDG, then Hardline is probably the bet - but value? Prav would be much, much shorter if she comes this way.
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Camelia is the best of Willies, that's Fit .
But not had a mention so I reckon they have something else planned
 
Folski said:
Any love for Us And Them?
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Me. I was planning on doing the forecast with him and Le Richebourg since they were so in love with finishing 1-2 together.

With LR out, he's on my radar in a wide open year
 
delsie777 said:
Was a decent hurdler and looks a better chaser. Last run was decent I thought and the step back in trip seemed to suit. Only 10/1 any race because wherever she goes she will shorten considerably. You were looking for value and 40/1 with NRNB is value as the stable have her and DDG 5/1 matched pretty closely given she'd get 7lbs. Personally I'd have her over Kalashnikov, Paloma Blue etc. all day long if she came here. Even the market leaders aren't bombproof are they? Glen Forza was a 3 mile handicapper the week before last and Lalor looked really disappointing last time. If you didn't get a big price about DDG, then Hardline is probably the bet - but value? Prav would be much, much shorter if she comes this way.
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Oh yeah, shes a biggish price, the race is awful, and it won't take a great horse to win it.

Her form though isn't very good. Beating Baie Des Iles over 2miles, when BDI is a stayer and was having her first run since before Xmas. Also giving her a good bit of weight. BDI is 142 rated. She can only beat her and did so 14ls so god knows whats in the locker, so the 40s is worth ago i guess.
 
Lalor friendless on the exchange....anyone heard anything?
 
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