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Arkle 2019

Wry smile time, from an excellent position to a crap one in 2 weeks after Kalashnikov confirmed he’s no 2 miler the CE news then LR today. As I mentioned at the start of the season I invested a significant amount of free bets in this race (in addition to a much smaller amount of real doe) imagining in part a small field, with the aim of having every horse covered for some sort of payout (let’s call it a book). I’ve taken the edge off the pain slightly having been laying the main protagonists since Kalashnikov’s latest defeat, but can no longer think of covering every runner especially with DDS’ potential switch.

I’ll carry on laying a couple of those I have remaining and look to draw even in the race (including total free bet investment) if one of the following are victorious: Lalor, Glenn Forsa, Paloma Blue or Kalashnikov, and get about 75% back if DDG or Hardline oblige. Anything else and it’s wipeout.

On a more positive note I actually thought we’d been pretty fortunate this year up until the CE news in terms of non-runners. Feel it’s just unfortunate that these two were in the same race. If there are not more than say 1-2 high profile non runners I’ll be pretty happy overall. Onwards and upwards :)
 
Just dusting off me tickets on Mengil Khan again but thinking what might had been after CE and LR
 
Last week in a pissed up state late in the evening I thought it would be a great idea to review my bets and smile on how clever i had been on a few . I saw bet365 were offering me cash out £47 for a £1 L15 which had Sir Erec 10/1 and Le Richebourg 12/1. Like a pillock in a haze , I clicked the wrong button and cashed out accidentially , I was mortified . The other 2 in my L15 were Mortal in 4 miler 20/1 and Midnight Run in bumper 20/1.
To hear the news this morning in which I had just the £20 win bet on LR left , gutted me and my heart sank when reading how many others had been effected..
Im so glad I had that extra couple of pints last week rather than come home early haha.

Moral of story , keep drinking big lad , sod what the missus says.
 
delsie777 said:
To be fair, my Le Rich bets were suspended from the time CE was out last tuesday
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I only had 1 bet involving LR a double with Sir Erec. Cash out was available after CE, suspended a few days ago.
 
To be fair, my Le Rich bets were suspended from the time CE was out last tuesday
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Mine too, it was all the bets that weren't NRNB that were suspended in the arkle market
 
I'm in such an odd position in this race now... another 5.5 pts in non runners

Glen Forsa and Defi Du Seuil are huge losers at this stage.... if they are both in the first 3 this race it's a horrible race.


Fortunately I can cling on to Lalor having DDS covered (I know that might not be true, but at least it's a thread I can hold) ... and Glen Forsa might be pants, after beating a boat and some tree's, and some other handicap boats.




Rubbish race this year, been kind to me over the years though. Swings and roundabouts.
 
Think the festival as a whole is going to be a bit of a blood bath as a whole
 
Hurricane fly said:
Think the festival as a whole is going to be a bit of a blood bath as a whole
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Oh I dunno, some races people have got firmly in the grasp?

RSA being one? Pretty much everybody has a bigger price about at least two of the 3 in the 3 horse race?



I can't imagine anyone has been lucky enough to just stick with Lalor though? Kudos if anyone has.
 
I’ve no doubt people with big antepost books will be able to turn a profit (in theory only need a couple of double digit winners) but everyone else I think will have a tough time.

If you went through the festival there is maybe 3 bankers? Altior, BDD and Tiger Roll(I don’t like to consider the XC as banker material, see CoC getting kicked last year)

Champion Hurdle is wide open with 3 shorties
Arkle and JLT both look poor, but that lends itself to big priced winners
The Supreme is merky, Ballymore I think Champ will be smashed into but is vulnerable

I get the feeling a lot of favourites will be turned over and the bookies will come out on top, which I’m sure none of us want!
 
I disagree the markets are uncertain and that creates potential for value. Some cracking races from a betting point of view even if the quality isn't there.
 
I am not sure switching Defi back to 2m is a good thing tbh, he improved going up in trip it seemed.

Plus Lalor has already smashed him by 21 lengths over C&D in November. I think he is the one to beat at present. Goes well fresh, done it at the venue and will be there or thereabouts.

Its up for grabs tho!
 
CoC pulled up and retired injured. I hate that people knock him for that run as if he was beaten on merit.

Same with the clowns that bang on about Douvan. He clearly was banker material....Banks go out of business too though :highly_amused:
 
Hurricane fly said:
I’ve no doubt people with big antepost books will be able to turn a profit (in theory only need a couple of double digit winners) but everyone else I think will have a tough time.

If you went through the festival there is maybe 3 bankers? Altior, BDD and Tiger Roll(I don’t like to consider the XC as banker material, see CoC getting kicked last year)

Champion Hurdle is wide open with 3 shorties
Arkle and JLT both look poor, but that lends itself to big priced winners
The Supreme is merky, Ballymore I think Champ will be smashed into but is vulnerable

I get the feeling a lot of favourites will be turned over and the bookies will come out on top, which I’m sure none of us want!
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It's really tough for me to answer something like that I suppose, as it's 2014 the last time I only had one (poss two) a race with hardly any ante post.

I'd find that tough any year really, compared to snaffling up value left, right and centre over 12 months like a big greedy hoover.

For the record though, 2014 I had 151 pts staked, and 192 pts returned, so it can be done :p This year would be harder than that year on the face of it, but I'm a lot better now than 5 years ago too.

Have some faith HF ;) You'll be buying a racehorse with your winnings a month from now...
 
Seems like the stars are aligning for my long term investments and fancy for this race Lalor...it's great from my investment point of view but in a strange way would have preferred him to beat a stronger field. Dave P is doing a great job with him...just can't wait for the next fortnight to pass.
 
Kevloaf said:
CoC pulled up and retired injured. I hate that people knock him for that run as if he was beaten on merit.

Same with the clowns that bang on about Douvan. He clearly was banker material....Banks go out of business too though :highly_amused:
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Cause of Cause was kicked by a faller which is what caused him to be pulled up I believe, I wouldn’t have stats to back this up but I would think you are twice as likely to be hampered by a faller than a 3m Chase, hence my resistance to calling anything a banker in it unless it was to front run aka Balthazar King

And I totally agree about Douvan, I argue that very point any time I see it - hence why I feel ok about having Altior as a baker
 
In jumps racing, a racing banker to me implies 'if they get round, they win'... but perhaps that isn't a common thought.

I don't suppose it matters either way, I get the point you're making :encouragement:

I think the ones deemed to be "The Bankers" are Benie Des Dieux, Paisley Park, Tiger Roll, Sir Erec and Altior.

A bit like when Yanworth was a banker, and UNWIMH - some are dubious... Paisley Park and Sir Erec will cause the most debate...on the preview circuit, I'd assume.
 
westcountry1 said:
Seems like the stars are aligning for my long term investments and fancy for this race Lalor...it's great from my investment point of view but in a strange way would have preferred him to beat a stronger field. Dave P is doing a great job with him...just can't wait for the next fortnight to pass.
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As the only saying goes .... Better to be lucky than good

I thinki Can't Catch Me mentioned him very early on here, certainly was the prompt for me to have a look. Would be dying in a ditch for the Arkle without taking a flyer on him at 33/1 before he ran!
 
Kevloaf said:
It's really tough for me to answer something like that I suppose, as it's 2014 the last time I only had one (poss two) a race with hardly any ante post.

I'd find that tough any year really, compared to snaffling up value left, right and centre over 12 months like a big greedy hoover.

For the record though, 2014 I had 151 pts staked, and 192 pts returned, so it can be done :p This year would be harder than that year on the face of it, but I'm a lot better now than 5 years ago too.

Have some faith HF ;) You'll be buying a racehorse with your winnings a month from now...
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This is my first year doing ante-post.....learning journey :)....think have some good positions, but will need less dead next year.....i do think you can make money most years (i have last 5 at least) watching value and following things like previous festival form, obvious trainers, watching out cap plots, etc....cant wait now
 
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