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Arkle 2018
- Thread starter Welshman
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FaugheenTheMachine
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Could be just a price correction hopefully? King has confirmed Sceau Royal will run in this today; looking like the race of the festival which makes a nice change
Rhinestone_Cowboy
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Wouldn't worry about that at all CoD. Plenty of money has come for PM after the Irish Arkle and for SC after his performance on Saturday so no way Footpad was going to remain odds on. I'm guessing the following SPs:
Footpad 6/4
PM 4/1
SC 5/1
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
Okay ---- remember 100/1 Rawnaq?I've got another, albeit not as strong a case to be made, as we all know if Rawnaq didn't get injured he was a GOOD THING :highly_amused:
I've added a 100/1 shot with BFSB - Saint Calvados. A while back, on the mares thread Brital mentioned he'd added Saint Calvados at 100/1 for the Arkle.... I popped him in the tracker and waited.
He made his debut over fences off 143 in a handicap last week and beat a horse who is fairly exposed but decentish in Remiluc easily by 9L in the end carrying loads more weight. For his first run, I loved the way he jumped the majority of his fences, really quick and accurate! He's with Harry Whittington (who had Arzal) and I reckon this horse could be as good. (Arzal won a Group 1).
I also checked Mark Howards One Jump Ahead and he gets a mention in Venetia Williams' section, where is says he won 3 hurdle races in France and should be better over fences. (Can only assume he's moved since then to Harry?)
I went to check the price and BFSB have him still at 100/1, 66s with SJ and as short as 33s in a place.
Chance he could go up in trip so won't go over board, but watch the debut and see what you think..... Arkle might well cut up and I wouldn't mind a 100/1 shot on my side...connections mentioned the Scilly Isles at Sandown (3rd February) after the win and that is a grade 1 so must think a bit of him too!
0.5pt e/w Saint Calvados 100/1 Arkle
Actually, 66/1 for the JLT too and if he goes Scilly Isles maybe that is more likely....
0.5 pt e/w Saint Calvados 66/1 JLT
Take a bow. Seriously impressive stuff this
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
Thanks. Credit to Brital though he mentioned him in the first place!
I listened to a few podcasts today and he is certainly looking like being the "sexy" pick which doesn't increase his chances but does at least make things seem exciting :highly_amused:
I listened to a few podcasts today and he is certainly looking like being the "sexy" pick which doesn't increase his chances but does at least make things seem exciting :highly_amused:
Brital
Fat Jockey Patron
Thanks Kev. The Arkle is shaping up to be my best race.
I have 2 pts win on SC at 100/1 (wish that was 2pts ew now)
1 pt ew on Sceau Royal @ 33/1
4 pts win on PM @ 12/1
I had 2 pts win on Footpad @ 15/1, but laid off for a guaranteed 8/1 win when his price went silly.
That gives a vague impression I know what I’m doing as long as I don’t mention how many points I wasted on Shantou Rock :highly_amused:
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I'm cautious of the "work with" comments.... Charli Parcs is the Champion Hurdler in that case
mayo
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I'm cautious of the "work with" comments.... Charli Parcs is the Champion Hurdler in that case
Yep. But best hurdler used to be the way to find the winner of this. PM and Brainpower better than any of these over hurdles.
doctorwu
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opatcho
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Nope. I think Footpad should be in the JLT
As much as I don’t like to say this, but Sceau Royale performance at sandown stands out. Not keen connections taking him to Doncaster... but think the early pace will set this up for him
As much as I don’t like to say this, but Sceau Royale performance at sandown stands out. Not keen connections taking him to Doncaster... but think the early pace will set this up for him
Hard to answer when you're not having to back at 10/11.
I think you have to admit he sets the standard. He's be the most vulnerable of the short priced horses based on the known quality of opposition...but he does hold them all.
I wouldn't lay him at 11/10.
What makes you think that opatcho?
His hurdles form?
IMO he's already left his hurdles form behind (which was a decent enough level) ... and he's shown himself to be easily the best 2 mile novice chaser this season. I see no reason to try him over fences up in trip yet?
opatcho
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Not sure if I’m over complicating it, but there’s just something about the horse, it’s previous hurdling form which is niggles me
He could boot up, but this is one of the most competitive Arkles over witness in the last 5-6 years
opatcho
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Firstly, I’m not a fan of Triumph horses. They appear to come out of this juvenile season worse off, limited in some way. Does running them competitively as 4 year old stunt their growth / further performance?! Don’t know, there’s hardly few that make it as grade 1 winners
After the chamoion hurdle, I was keen on Footpad running in the Stayers. This was backed up with him being ended in the stayer race at punchestown... as a result, I went against Footpad in his chase debut thinking he’d need more than 2 miles. I was pleasantly surprised how well he took to fences.
Having quickly looked at his timings over fences, they haven’t been speculator. I would love to see how Footpad jumps when at pace and under pressure. I thought Waiting patiently was a great jumper but made some mistakes this weekend in a hot race.
This arkle will have some pace, which is a positive for Footpad as it wont end up as a sprint finish, however.... will he jump as well come March.
Connections entries him in both the Arkle and JLT, so the extra trip would have been considered
Niggle for me is, can I see this horse find another gear and pass horses up that hill. Not sure if he has it in him! Other than taking up the lead in his last race, when has he battled to win a race? This is Footpad, he isn’t a Douvan or UDS... can i see Footpad going to the Champion Chase next year and giving Altior a run, not really. As a result I feel his price is on the short side
Out of the odds on favs, he is the one I can see getting beat