Arkle 2018

[Folski]

Tombstone blots his copybook for me too often. I am always wary of Gigginstown 2mers since they always seem to target 3m chasers when they are buying.

 

[Kevloaf]

Tombstone blots his copybook for me too often. I am always wary of Gigginstown 2mers since they always seem to target 3m chasers when they are buying.

Probably right on breeding to think that way... not always the case though, ironically enough, Petit Mouchoir in this race market.... ?

 

[Folski]

I think Id be right in saying having ran in the Champion Hurdle is a big negative in this recently.

 

[Scooby91]

I think Id be right in saying having ran in the Champion Hurdle is a big negative in this recently.

How many that finished 3rd 4th have gone chasing in there prime?

 

[Kevloaf]

I think Id be right in saying having ran in the Champion Hurdle is a big negative in this recently.

Usually.... I think the statistic that counts against them is having a second season over hurdles rather than running in that race specifically....

If that trend was followed this year... certainly some value.... as Footpad and Petit Mouchoir and Sceau Royal would all get ruled out.... and they're 1-2-3 in the betting

Not a trend I pay much attention to, as it has to be relative to what they're up against, and the novice hurdlers from last year are not a vintage bunch AT ALL

 

[Scooby91]

Usually.... I think the statistic that counts against them is having a second season over hurdles rather than running in that race specifically....

If that trend was followed this year... certainly some value.... as Footpad and Petit Mouchoir and Sceau Royal would all get ruled out.... and they're 1-2-3 in the betting

Not a trend I pay much attention to, as it has to be relative to what they're up against, and the novice hurdlers from last year are not a vintage bunch AT ALL

If a horse out of last year's CH dosent win the arkle ill donate £100 to the IJF

 

[Folski]

How many that finished 3rd 4th have gone chasing in there prime?

Footpad was within 10L of the winner so horses to go chasing having finished within 10L of CH winner previous season.

Rock On Ruby
Peddlers Cross
Overturn
Oscars Well
Menorah (Beat 29L in Arkle)
Zaynar
Crackaway Jack
Muir head

Notable other runners have run in CH
Oscar Whiskey
Grandeout
Identity Thief
Ptit Zig

 

[Kevloaf]

Footpad was within 10L of the winner so horses to go chasing having finished within 10L of CH winner previous season.

Rock On Ruby
Peddlers Cross
Overturn
Oscars Well
Menorah (Beat 29L in Arkle)
Zaynar
Crackaway Jack
Muir head

Notable other runners have run in CH
Oscar Whiskey
Grandeout
Identity Thief
Ptit Zig

The difference between that list, and Footpad, for me is this comment from Willie Mullins.

“He’s electric over his fences and has been from day one. He’s as good a jumper as I’ve seen in our place for ages. He’s able to gain four or five lengths at a fence and is as good a novice as I’ve seen for a long time to jump,” he said.

Fair play to you, if you're using that as a rule, I am sure it'd have worked over the last 10 years or however long... but if Mullins thinks Footpad is the best novice jumper of a fence he has had, in a list that includes Un De Sceaux, Vautour and Douvan, then I'll think he is a possible exception to the rule .... and the nice prices about that being right are a bonus

 

[Folski]

The difference between that list, and Footpad, for me is this comment from Willie Mullins.

“He’s electric over his fences and has been from day one. He’s as good a jumper as I’ve seen in our place for ages. He’s able to gain four or five lengths at a fence and is as good a novice as I’ve seen for a long time to jump,” he said.

Fair play to you, if you're using that as a rule, I am sure it'd have worked over the last 10 years or however long... but if Mullins thinks Footpad is the best novice jumper of a fence he has had, in a list that includes Un De Sceaux, Vautour and Douvan, then I'll think he is a possible exception to the rule .... and the nice prices about that being right are a bonus

I'm not its just a worry for me, I typically avoid horses who have run in either CH over fences or triumph in general, not to mind both.

 

[Kevloaf]

I'm not its just a worry for me, I typically avoid horses who have run in either CH over fences or triumph in general, not to mind both.

Taken straight from Gaulstats .... http://www.gaultstats.com/2-10-racing-post-arkle

COURSE FORM - Only Un De Sceaux and Voy Por of the last 14 winners had never run here before. Western Warhorse had been 2nd in a Cl3 hurdle off 125. The other 11 had 'good' course form. Definition as follows. Either a course winner or placed at a previous festival. Stat stretched to include Forpadytheplasterer had finished 4th in a G1 Neptune. The other 10 had also either won at least a G3 here or been placed in G2 or G1. Altior won the Supreme.



Boreen Prince 1985 last runner up in Champion Hurdle to win this the following year. Can't see My Tent having a go. Overturn failed in 2013. Footpad 4th (well punted) Petit Mouchoir, Sceaux Royal (6th) coming from that route. Apart from Sizing Europe all winners since 1966 had had a run since Jan 1st.

Kingmaker (Warwick, Feb 7) prep race with best current record. Winner of that has finished 0123U126 in this. Check No Scilly Isles winner has doubled up in last 20. (check). Wayward Lad Chase at Kempton December won by Remittance Man, Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig. Cyrname. in 4mins 5 seconds. Captain Chris won after success in the 2m 4f Pendil Chase at Kempton. Last 3 winners of Lightning Nov Chase Donc 29th Jan well beaten at Cheltenham although in 2017 Cloudy Dream was second in both races.

 

[jono]

I'm not its just a worry for me, I typically avoid horses who have run in either CH over fences or triumph in general, not to mind both.

As a general rule I would definately start off in any of the novice chases being against not specifically horses who have run in the CH but horses who spent the extra season over hurdles. So the likes of Footpad, Petit Mouchoir were on the back foot so to speak before they ran over a fence for me. However this looks like going completely out the window in the Arkle this year the top 5 all spent that extra year over hurdles:

Footpad (CH)
Petit Mouchoir (CH)
Brain Power (CH)
North Hill Harvey (County)

So where as horses at the start of the year like Melon, Neon Wolf, Finians Oscar (!) were higher on my list...it's actually hard to spot many horses that will run here that haven't spent that extra year over hurdles, and all bar 1 just happens to have ran in the CH. With the news of River Wylde being out, you might only be looking at Saint Calvados and Demi Sang as being the only 2 that didn't?

Bar a big upset, it looks like this year will very much be the exception.

Then like Kev said the quotes from Mullins is actually pretty staggering when you factor in the talent he has sent over fences. Very similar quotes as above but here's what he also said after his win LTO:

He's electric. From the first day at home that I saw him jumping over fences I thought he was the best I've seen for a long while.

"He was good on his debut at Navan but today he was just awesome. He gained lengths at his fences and he's one to really look forward to.

And from Townend:

Riding a top class two-miler at that speed, and who jumps the way he does, is brilliant,” enthused Townend. “To do that on only his second start over fences is very good. He couldn’t be more impressive

If you saw those quotes from connections but didn't know the horse, you would think they were talking about Douvan!

 

[Tenty]

Arkle Pricewise going to be Petit Mouchoir/or a left field North Hill Harvey?

 

[darlojim]

Really looking forward to the Irish Arkle this weekend and I just hope FP goes out and destroys the field, I'm getting more and more worried about PM each day and just hope he gets put in his place but I may just have a saver on him for the Arkle incase he gets pretty close/beats FP.

 

[opatcho]

As a general rule I would definately start off in any of the novice chases being against not specifically horses who have run in the CH but horses who spent the extra season over hurdles. So the likes of Footpad, Petit Mouchoir were on the back foot so to speak before they ran over a fence for me. However this looks like going completely out the window in the Arkle this year the top 5 all spent that extra year over hurdles:

I was the same, but given Footpad went down the juvenile route I’m happy to raise an exception here. Would have needed that extra year to grow out for chasing

 

[Scooby91]

I was the same, but given Footpad went down the juvenile route I’m happy to raise an exception here. Would have needed that extra year to grow out for chasing

Sceau royal was in the same triumph.

 

[Kevloaf]

Really looking forward to the Irish Arkle this weekend and I just hope FP goes out and destroys the field, I'm getting more and more worried about PM each day and just hope he gets put in his place but I may just have a saver on him for the Arkle incase he gets pretty close/beats FP.

If that is how you feel jim, I literally cannot see a negative in PM with 365 now... it is NRNB, so if beaten he might not go, or go for the JLT... if he wins, he shortens, and there is the chance he drifts too bit still runs and you'd get the enhanced price on the place?

 

[opatcho]

Sceau royal was in the same triumph.

Yup - but I'm not backing Sceau royal for the Arkle

I can not be backing any horse that goes over to Doncaster in soft condition, and puts in an unimpressive run. I wasn't keen on Sceau Royal before he ran, and I'm still not keen on his chances now.

Plus, Alan King's form at the festival is shocking! Doesn't surprise me when it appears most of his horses are campaigned hard over the winter months.... picking off price money

 

[Kevloaf]

Crickey, Saint Calvados now best price 12/1 NRNB - well done to whoever put him up at 100/1 :triumphant:

Arkle Pricewise going to be Petit Mouchoir/or a left field North Hill Harvey?

Seriously though, the sea of blue I can see must be Pricewise related?!

Shame if it is, that'll be the kiss of death :highly_amused:

 

[opatcho]

Crickey, Saint Calvados now best price 12/1 NRNB - well done to whoever put him up at 100/1 :triumphant:



Seriously though, the sea of blue I can see must be Pricewise related?!

Shame if it is, that'll be the kiss of death :highly_amused:

I’m on a 50/1 but at small stakes. Wrote it off after the horse was pricewised :-(
12/1 is silly

 

[charlie]

Yup - but I'm not backing Sceau royal for the Arkle

I can not be backing any horse that goes over to Doncaster in soft condition, and puts in an unimpressive run. I wasn't keen on Sceau Royal before he ran, and I'm still not keen on his chances now.

Plus, Alan King's form at the festival is shocking! Doesn't surprise me when it appears most of his horses are campaigned hard over the winter months.... picking off price money

I wouldn’t be put off, Sceau Royal hates soft ground