Arkle 2018

[billymag]

It will take a very decent performance for Sceau Royal to win giving his two market principles 5lb, but if he does go close and fail to win dont throw away your tickets, connections are building to the spring festivals and wont be bottoming their horses in late October there will be more to come.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

You missed Finians Oscar who needs further :highly_amused: but wins this with ease

People who don't have 1pt at 20/1 on FO will rue the fact the loaf told them Potts will put this in the wrong race ... And he can't be out the 3

Given what Scooby listed above you'd have to feel the 14/1 about Finian's Oscar is still a fair price, as stated previously, this race has a tendency to fall apart, and I do believe that IF, and it is a big IF for me, Finian's Oscar does turn up he'll be the one who could potentially stop PM, but other than that I have no listed dangers, this based purely on hurdles form and PM's debut over fences of course, still a LONG way to go mind!

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

It will take a very decent performance for Sceau Royal to win giving his two market principles 5lb, but if he does go close and fail to win dont throw away your tickets, connections are building to the spring festivals and wont be bottoming their horses in late October there will be more to come.

Providing neither MWTT or SR are well beaten today the losing connections should still be able to pick out the positives.

 

[Scooby91]

Given what Scooby listed above you'd have to feel the 14/1 about Finian's Oscar is still a fair price, as stated previously, this race has a tendency to fall apart, and I do believe that IF, and it is a big IF for me, Finian's Oscar does turn up he'll be the one who could potentially stop PM, but other than that I have no listed dangers, this based purely on hurdles form and PM's debut over fences of course, still a LONG way to go mind!

If you did want to back finians for the arkle, I'd atleast wait for his next entries, they may or may not be all over 2m4 . And if be surprised if he shortened inbetween.

 

[Kevloaf]

If you did want to back finians for the arkle, I'd atleast wait for his next entries, they may or may not be all over 2m4 . And if be surprised if he shortened inbetween.

I already took my chances at 20s.... but I read back Colin Tizzard's stable tour today "He came with a big reputation last year and has fulfilled that in spades. He is a beautiful horse. Robbie Power schooled him and you would have thought he was a handicap chaser. He could easily end up as an Arkle horse, as he is not short of pace. There is the JLT at Cheltenham now, but the more prestigious race is the Arkle."

I can't get out of my head that Potts and Tizzard both value the Arkle so much more than the JLT.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I already took my chances at 20s.... but I read back Colin Tizzard's stable tour today "He came with a big reputation last year and has fulfilled that in spades. He is a beautiful horse. Robbie Power schooled him and you would have thought he was a handicap chaser. He could easily end up as an Arkle horse, as he is not short of pace. There is the JLT at Cheltenham now, but the more prestigious race is the Arkle."

I can't get out of my head that Potts and Tizzard both value the Arkle so much more than the JLT.

Kev, I fully expect them to go for the race they feel he has the best chance in, and for that reason the Arkle is now standing out to me also, as it does general lack numbers!

 

[Kevloaf]

Kev, I fully expect them to go for the race they feel he has the best chance in, and for that reason the Arkle is now standing out to me also, as it does general lack numbers!

I don't want anyone to think, that I believe he is best suited to the Arkle. If it was a 1 horse race, a time-trial, I'd expect him to put up a better time relative to 'standard' in the JLT - but IF the JLT looks a more competitive race, I can't see why they'd go for a tougher, less prestigious race, even if it may suit the horse more. It isn't like they don't KNOW he would stay further, they would surely make use of him and get him bowling along?



On to today though, I think you guys are right and both could emerge with some credit. You'd certainly expect MWTT to be ready to rock and roll first time out, and Sceau Royal has the benefit of the run.

Now that the prices are 6/4 & 7/4 I think Sceau Royal is the 'known' quantity and I should side with him in this race today.

I wonder if a MWTT Arkle Ballyandy JLT double is worth a few scheckles :highly_amused:

 

[Scooby91]

I don't want anyone to think, that I believe he is best suited to the Arkle. If it was a 1 horse race, a time-trial, I'd expect him to put up a better time relative to 'standard' in the JLT - but IF the JLT looks a more competitive race, I can't see why they'd go for a tougher, less prestigious race, even if it may suit the horse more. It isn't like they don't KNOW he would stay further, they would surely make use of him and get him bowling along?



On to today though, I think you guys are right and both could emerge with some credit. You'd certainly expect MWTT to be ready to rock and roll first time out, and Sceau Royal has the benefit of the run.

Now that the prices are 6/4 & 7/4 I think Sceau Royal is the 'known' quantity and I should side with him in this race today.

I wonder if a MWTT Arkle Ballyandy JLT double is worth a few scheckles :highly_amused:

I personally would fancy sceau royal to win today, however on prices alone if it is deemed to be a 2 horse race, and North hill Harvey drifts out to 7s , which is possible, I will have a small ew play on him with the 2 places.
I wouldn't touch him for the arkle however,

If movewiththetimes won with a bit in hand, which I really don't believe he can do. I would have to back him for the arkle at 20s.

 

[Garrison Savannah]

Kev are you not worried by FO's jumping technique? Based on their last runs I think PM would take many lengths out of FO over the course of a 2 mile race. Of course FO is entitled to improve, but I don't think it's a certainty?

 

[SAMCRO]

I don't want anyone to think, that I believe he is best suited to the Arkle. If it was a 1 horse race, a time-trial, I'd expect him to put up a better time relative to 'standard' in the JLT - but IF the JLT looks a more competitive race, I can't see why they'd go for a tougher, less prestigious race, even if it may suit the horse more. It isn't like they don't KNOW he would stay further, they would surely make use of him and get him bowling along?



On to today though, I think you guys are right and both could emerge with some credit. You'd certainly expect MWTT to be ready to rock and roll first time out, and Sceau Royal has the benefit of the run.

Now that the prices are 6/4 & 7/4 I think Sceau Royal is the 'known' quantity and I should side with him in this race today.

I wonder if a MWTT Arkle Ballyandy JLT double is worth a few scheckles :highly_amused:

If that double came in i would give up the game!

 

[SAMCRO]

Kev are you not worried by FO's jumping technique? Based on their last runs I think PM would take many lengths out of FO over the course of a 2 mile race. Of course FO is entitled to improve, but I don't think it's a certainty?

I think FO jumping will improve significantly with a quicker pace, dont know the sectionals but it certainly didnt look like they went quick.

 

[archie]

If all the ones that you guys are tipping to run in the Arkle because "it's a weak race" actually turn up, it could be a very hot race indeed even without the ex-French.

For me, Ballyandy and MWTT were decent handicap hurdlers and I'd expect them to make decent handicap chasers.

 

[Innoko]

If all the ones that you guys are tipping to run in the Arkle because "it's a weak race" actually turn up, it could be a very hot race indeed even without the ex-French.

For me, Ballyandy and MWTT were decent handicap hurdlers and I'd expect them to make decent handicap chasers.

Ballyandy won the Champion Bumper and was a very decent fourth in last seasons Supreme. Possibly better than a handicapper?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

If all the ones that you guys are tipping to run in the Arkle because "it's a weak race" actually turn up, it could be a very hot race indeed even without the ex-French.

For me, Ballyandy and MWTT were decent handicap hurdlers and I'd expect them to make decent handicap chasers.

Haha I disagree Archie, the only way it becomes a hot race is if a lot of them improve for jumping a fence, which IMO, I don't see many of them doing, other than that and on all known form over hurdles PM is the one to beat. The only reason Finian's Oscar is being put up a lot is on the basis that he is the most lightly raced of the potential improvers, and had a big reputation, especially as one to go over fences, compared with many of the other potential runners, don't get me wrong, he done nothing wrong over hurdles either, which can only enhance his claims.

For all that Sceau Royal may represent some kind of value to some I do think he'll massively struggle to compete with the horses at the head of the market currently, PM has him covered quite easily on hurdles form, likewise for Brain Power too.

If I had to give one a shout, although I think the trip may be too short for him, and likely a JLT pop is on the cards instead, but it would be Footpad. At least he's managed to get close to PM over hurdles.

We can, unfortunately, only go on hurdles form as a basis to start our bets, if we choose to bet this early of course, and until they jump a fence in public, unless you are 'in the know'.

 

[Kevloaf]

Kev are you not worried by FO's jumping technique? Based on their last runs I think PM would take many lengths out of FO over the course of a 2 mile race. Of course FO is entitled to improve, but I don't think it's a certainty?

Worried in terms of him winning the race, yes. Although I did think he'll get better as has been suggested.

I think he's a shoe-in to run here, which is why I'm so keen at the odds. If he was 6/1 in this race I'd be against him.

I have already got petit Mouchoir covered and agree he looks the one to beat ...

Trading out on Finians might be a consideration but I'm looking at a profit regardless of which one wins.

I've waffled a bit, in short, I don't think Finians Oscar is a good thing for the race, I do think he Will be a huge player though and I do think he will run here

 

[archie]

Ballyandy won the Champion Bumper and was a very decent fourth in last seasons Supreme. Possibly better than a handicapper?

Ballyandy failed to win a novice hurdle and arguably won the Bumper because he was the most mature so had/has less improvement in him than his contemporaries.
MWTT is a different sort and could improve but I wouldn't be backing him until he'd produced some evidence.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Well....neither of them will be challenging the market principles IMO based on that performance alone!

That said, at least MWTT can improve from his debut, no excuses for Sceau Royal, having his second start especially as North Hill Harvey was having his debut over fences.

 

[billymag]

Thought Sceau ran well and off levels would of been a nice winner. With a really fast pace in the Arkle (if he gets there) I think it will suit him far better. As i said before defeat today running well isnt going to deter me. Think he still has a nice ew chance, hopefully he gets there come March.

 

[archie]

MWTT surely bred to go further?

 

[Kevloaf]

It must be recency bias, but I see Jacob losing in a battle so much more than I see anyone else.

Last off the bridle and ahead after the last :highly_amused:

I don't think Finians Oscar / Petit Mouchoir / Melon would have struggled to win today. There for the taking!