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Arkle 2018

Robante said:
Would be all over Melon for this but no way he wins the Champion Hurdle this year - will run creditably I'm sure but far too hot a race
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Not sure it'll turn out to be such a hot champion hurdle Rob. Here is the top of the market:

Buveur D'air - worthy fav
DDS - will have to be special to win. 5yr olds have a terrible record.
Faugheen - off the track for almost 2 years. May not turn up.
Yorkhill - may yet stay over fences. May not turn up.
Min - probably stays over fences.
Apple's Jade - wants 3 miles, rather than two. Won't run
Labaik - currently injured and has a head full of spanners
Petit Mouchior - goes over fences
Wicklow Brave - handicapper, rather than gd1 hurdler
33/1 bar

I think it has the potential to be a weak champion hurdle with doubts surrounding many of those at the head of the betting.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Not sure it'll turn out to be such a hot champion hurdle Rob. Here is the top of the market:

Buveur D'air - worthy fav
DDS - will have to be special to win. 5yr olds have a terrible record.
Faugheen - off the track for almost 2 years. May not turn up.
Yorkhill - may yet stay over fences. May not turn up.
Min - probably stays over fences.
Apple's Jade - wants 3 miles, rather than two. Won't run
Labaik - currently injured and has a head full of spanners
Petit Mouchior - goes over fences
Wicklow Brave - handicapper, rather than gd1 hurdler
33/1 bar

I think it has the potential to be a weak champion hurdle with doubts surrounding many of those at the head of the betting.
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Could go either way. If you've three out of Buveur, Defi, Faugheen and Yorkhill turning up in good form then i'd say it's a strong renewal. Taking MTOY as a yardstick Buveur D'Air would have a few lengths in hand on Labaik, who of course finished a couple in front of Melon in the supreme. If you take Wicklow Brave as a yardstick then Buveur D'air would have about 20 lengths in hand over Melon on collateral form. Of course it's not that simple to read form across like that, and you have to factor in probably more improvement for Melon this year. However, no way can i see that Melon will have a chance of finishing in front of Buveur D'air, who is the one runner in the race that we know is assured to line up (barring injuries)
 
As pointed out elsewhere, BDA and Melon were officially rated about the same coming out of their respective novice seasons. BDA made great strides last season but it would be foolish to think that Melon might not do the same.
 
I think it's dangerous to write off Melon's chances by using the form of Labaik at Punchestown. Don't forget that Labaik finished that race with a career threatening injury.

Melon has only raced over hurdles three times, finishing 2nd at Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals. At 5 years old, he should have quiet a lot of improving to do. Official rating 152.

Compare that with Buveur D'air at the end of his novice campaign. BD had run 4 times over hurdles, finishing 3rd at Cheltenham and winning at Aintree. Official rating 152.

They were both lightly raced horses during their novice hurdle seasons and I can see Melon improving a lot during this campaign.
 
Form over ratings though surely? Not one piece of form suggests Melon can beat Buveur D'air so any bet on Melon would be a leap of faith that he's improved a massive amount. You could also argue that Cilaos Emery might improve the same amount as Melon, and having already beaten him as a 5 year old why shouldn't he have his number again
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I think it's dangerous to write off Melon's chances by using the form of Labaik at Punchestown. Don't forget that Labaik finished that race with a career threatening injury.

Melon has only raced over hurdles three times, finishing 2nd at Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals. At 5 years old, he should have quiet a lot of improving to do. Official rating 152.

Compare that with Buveur D'air at the end of his novice campaign. BD had run 4 times over hurdles, finishing 3rd at Cheltenham and winning at Aintree. Official rating 152.

They were both lightly raced horses during their novice hurdle seasons and I can see Melon improving a lot during this campaign.
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I don't doubt he'll improve, but others are entitled to also (i.e. Cilaos Emery). I think Melon would have a great shot at winning the Arkle this year, given the likely improvement as he gets more experience, and likely improvement when going over fences. I still think this is the logical route Melon will take assuming Faugheen shows some of his old spark
 
No single price of form would have had Buveur D'air as champion hurdler at this stage last season but he improved.

I agree, Cilaos Emery is another who could improve and be a contender in March, although I do prefer Melon of the two.
 
Robante said:
Form over ratings though surely? Not one piece of form suggests Melon can beat Buveur D'air so any bet on Melon would be a leap of faith that he's improved a massive amount. You could also argue that Cilaos Emery might improve the same amount as Melon, and having already beaten him as a 5 year old why shouldn't he have his number again
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I think they are priced accordingly, 25/1 (top price) that's 5/1 for Melon to place let alone win the race, compared with the 4/1 (top price) for BD to WIN only! As FM said, it could, potentially, turn into a really weak CH, not every horse in the current betting market will turn up, that is for sure, and 25/1 on Melon is a huge e/way steal IMO, nevermind if it wins, if the race collapses in participants.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I think they are priced accordingly, 25/1 (top price) that's 5/1 for Melon to place let alone win the race, compared with the 4/1 (top price) for BD to WIN only! As FM said, it could, potentially, turn into a really weak CH, not every horse in the current betting market will turn up, that is for sure, and 25/1 on Melon is a huge e/way steal IMO, nevermind if it wins, if the race collapses in participants.
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Melon e/w at that price does seem a decent bet. Only negative for me would be if Faugheen is showing he's back to his best (a long shot in itself i guess) and Mullins has a word in the owner's ear and gets them to switch to the Arkle
 
If Faugheen turns up at his very best then the rest all might as well go chasing ;)
 
A nice debut by Sceau Royal over fences. Low and accurate over his fences he reminded me of Buveur D'air from last season.

33/1 still available for the Arkle and is enough to tempt me.
 
Really impressive debut there from Sceau Royal, a horse that I never actually took too over hurdles. Jumping really neat and quick.
Reminiscent of Top Notch last year.

The 2m chase on the Sunday of the Open meeting is his likely next target. Due to his disliking for winter ground he could be a horse whose price fluctuates or stays relatively big for quite a while but the 33/1 after that performance is definitely fair. Doesn't look like a horse who would step up in trip either
 
Agreed Jono. Daryl said they'll would most probably get plenty of experience into him earlier while the ground is decent.

Acts around Cheltenham, graded hurdle winner, 2 mile is his trip and appears to have taken to fences. 33/1 is generous.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Agreed Jono. Daryl said they'll would most probably get plenty of experience into him earlier while the ground is decent.

Acts around Cheltenham, graded hurdle winner, 2 mile is his trip and appears to have taken to fences. 33/1 is generous.
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Just watched the replay and have backed 1 pt e/w 33/1

No doubt at all about the target which is about 1/3 of the battle :highly_amused:

He'd have some to find on hurdles form with Petit Mouchoir, but PM is a fair enough fav and double the price does seem value to moi.
 
....and PM might be going up in trip anyway.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
....and PM might be going up in trip anyway.
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Certainly wouldn't surprise given connections... seems a little odd if DD is going JLT though? I suppose you can't only have 1 bullet this far out at any race can you!
 
This race has the makings of a boil over for me, no obvious candidate we could see a dozen different favs between now and March, not convinced this is an AP market that will entice me....
 
Istabraq said:
This race has the makings of a boil over for me, no obvious candidate we could see a dozen different favs between now and March, not convinced this is an AP market that will entice me....
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I keep thinking that, but then keep thinking that it means the winner of this race is almost certainly 20/1+ and that lures me back in :triumphant:
 
Followed a few in with Sceau Royal. Very solid start to chasing and the 33-1 is very fair considering you know this is the intended target and who knows how many will actually turn up.

Holding my finger above the button for River Wylde. Won't be long until I press it though!
 
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