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Aintree Day 3 - 2022
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FinalFurlong91
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Anyone else kinda hoping flooring porter bombs like he did at punchestown last year then gets pushed to 8s-10s for the 2023 stayers
Geegees
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Can’t see them pushing him out to fair to be honest… maybe 2 points but I can’t see it being much more than that
That Horse
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Seems a more mature horse this year, haven't seen any keenness pre-race yet this year so the worries over him not liking the crowds were unfounded...so far. Think he wins and becomes unbackable unless something new comes out to challenge next season.
The Devil's Coachman is unexposed and I like Ashdale Bob but hard to make a case they're good enough for this, don't see how the others from the stayers hurdle reverse the result, they were all working harder than FP in that race
Would be nice.
A Plus Tard, Elimay and Flooring Porter all disappointed at some stage of the season and drifted for their (certain) Cheltenham targets which could be a lesson for us all…
Stormez
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Can’t fault you for thinking outside the box mate
FinalFurlong91
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….be sick if he won and I hadn’t backed him.
interestingly, Mouse Morris trained the first ever winner of this race and had 3 others placed but hasn’t entered one for 15 years. He runs Whatsnotoknow tomorrow (currently 28-1). Pertemps runners also have a decent record so he’ll do for me.
luisgarciaisgod
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Biggest bet of the week on Three Stripe Life tomorrow, think he'll run them into ground. Think 3's is fairly big
Also going to give Third Time Lucki one last chance tomorrow, dry ground and Aintree should suit
Also going to give Third Time Lucki one last chance tomorrow, dry ground and Aintree should suit
FinalFurlong91
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Going to use today's method again
One bet away from the national
Three Stripe Life 3/1
I'd have him a 7/4-2/1 shot myself in what looks a weak grade 1
He has no Sir Gerhard to bump into tomorrow
One bet away from the national
Three Stripe Life 3/1
I'd have him a 7/4-2/1 shot myself in what looks a weak grade 1
He has no Sir Gerhard to bump into tomorrow
DenmanSacre
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13:45 3m handicap hurdle
Usually won by a horse stepping up in trip.
Party Business has been smashed in the betting, being as low as 9/2 but 29/4 was available 6 places with Bet365. He was hampered twice in the Martin Pipe by fallers, then raced wide and niggled along but kept finding to eventually finish 5th. Should be dropped out the back and given every chance to get the trip. I can't see him being any higher than that tomorrow so taken the price now as a saver for my other 2 picks.
Emitom off 135 with Rachel on top at 40s with PP/Betfair is too high. I can forgive his last run - ran in the heavy ground at Haydock a month after a heavy ground slog at Lingfield in January, where he finished 2 and 3/4 length behind Top Ville Ben off 145 and now runs 2 and a half months later off a 10 pound lower mark with the best jockey in training on board. The handicapper has given him a fantastic chance in this.
The other one of interest is Pounding Poet at 33s. Tom Lacey has been in good form this season and Stan Sheppard has a great strike rate this season as well. Another one stepping up in trip, he should be held up and produced late. Finished 2nd twice at Aintree this season over the mid trip and his breeding suggests a step up should be within his reach.
14:25 Mersey Novice Hurdle (2m4)
Three Stripe Life is the worthy favourite and I can see the argument that he should probably be shorter, but I'll be taking him on as there are some horses with decent each way chances in this who skipped Cheltenham.
Might I has looked like a step up in trip will suit all season - he is a half brother to Stattler and sired by Fame and glory so I expect quite a bit of improvement. He's got the closest to Constitution Hill, the form of the Haydock run is brilliant behind Jonbon and 14/1 / 6/1 available at the moment with 4 places looks like great each way value to me.
Elle Est Belle's form has been franked all season and presents a danger. The Skelton's have a great record at Aintree and 11s with PP is tempting.
North Lodge doesn't need to improve too much to be involved, but is well found now in the market.
Stage Star is much better than shown at Cheltenham and 11/1 is a fair price for a grade 1 winner.
I don't think Colonel Mustard races like he needs the step up in trip, but his form is pretty solid. Three Stripe Life should have him held though. Good Risk At All is too short for what he's achieved, as is Walking On Air.
15:00 Maghull Novices Chase (2m)
Terrible race. Edwardstone should win. GDM shouldn't be good enough and Third Time Lucki must be the horse with the most comments on this forum for such a poor horse.
Probably be a no bet race unless I put Edwardstone in some multiples.
15:35 Liverpool Hurdle (3m)
Will the others let Danny have his own way up front again? I'd be hoping Ashdale Bob ensures this is a better pace than Cheltenham so we can see what Flooring Porter is made of when not being able to dictate.
I can't work out if Thyme Hill or Champ could be value. I need to rewatch the Stayers and last years win by Thyme Hill but probably a watching race to see how Flooring Porter runs.
16:15 Handicap Chase (3m1)
Is Shan Blue bombproof? He looked very good early in his novice career, looked even better before falling in the Charlie Hall but I can't take to him.
Tea Clipper is the obvious one but his jumping puts me off. He did run very well at Aintree last year though.
Nothing particularly standing out at the moment. Espoir De Teillee possibly. Stepping up in trip and could bring out improvement. 50/1 is fair at the moment but may get bigger tomorrow.
17:15 Grand National
Last winner I've had in this race was in 2008 so I'm usually useless.
Enjoy D'allen and Freewheelin Dylan have been my picks from the start of the season. JP removed 2 horses to get School Boy Hours in so I'll chance him as well.
18:20 Bumper
Kings horse, Ernest Gray, was impressive last time out. Probably should just do Willie's in the bumper but don't like either of them.
Usually won by a horse stepping up in trip.
Party Business has been smashed in the betting, being as low as 9/2 but 29/4 was available 6 places with Bet365. He was hampered twice in the Martin Pipe by fallers, then raced wide and niggled along but kept finding to eventually finish 5th. Should be dropped out the back and given every chance to get the trip. I can't see him being any higher than that tomorrow so taken the price now as a saver for my other 2 picks.
Emitom off 135 with Rachel on top at 40s with PP/Betfair is too high. I can forgive his last run - ran in the heavy ground at Haydock a month after a heavy ground slog at Lingfield in January, where he finished 2 and 3/4 length behind Top Ville Ben off 145 and now runs 2 and a half months later off a 10 pound lower mark with the best jockey in training on board. The handicapper has given him a fantastic chance in this.
The other one of interest is Pounding Poet at 33s. Tom Lacey has been in good form this season and Stan Sheppard has a great strike rate this season as well. Another one stepping up in trip, he should be held up and produced late. Finished 2nd twice at Aintree this season over the mid trip and his breeding suggests a step up should be within his reach.
14:25 Mersey Novice Hurdle (2m4)
Three Stripe Life is the worthy favourite and I can see the argument that he should probably be shorter, but I'll be taking him on as there are some horses with decent each way chances in this who skipped Cheltenham.
Might I has looked like a step up in trip will suit all season - he is a half brother to Stattler and sired by Fame and glory so I expect quite a bit of improvement. He's got the closest to Constitution Hill, the form of the Haydock run is brilliant behind Jonbon and 14/1 / 6/1 available at the moment with 4 places looks like great each way value to me.
Elle Est Belle's form has been franked all season and presents a danger. The Skelton's have a great record at Aintree and 11s with PP is tempting.
North Lodge doesn't need to improve too much to be involved, but is well found now in the market.
Stage Star is much better than shown at Cheltenham and 11/1 is a fair price for a grade 1 winner.
I don't think Colonel Mustard races like he needs the step up in trip, but his form is pretty solid. Three Stripe Life should have him held though. Good Risk At All is too short for what he's achieved, as is Walking On Air.
15:00 Maghull Novices Chase (2m)
Terrible race. Edwardstone should win. GDM shouldn't be good enough and Third Time Lucki must be the horse with the most comments on this forum for such a poor horse.
Probably be a no bet race unless I put Edwardstone in some multiples.
15:35 Liverpool Hurdle (3m)
Will the others let Danny have his own way up front again? I'd be hoping Ashdale Bob ensures this is a better pace than Cheltenham so we can see what Flooring Porter is made of when not being able to dictate.
I can't work out if Thyme Hill or Champ could be value. I need to rewatch the Stayers and last years win by Thyme Hill but probably a watching race to see how Flooring Porter runs.
16:15 Handicap Chase (3m1)
Is Shan Blue bombproof? He looked very good early in his novice career, looked even better before falling in the Charlie Hall but I can't take to him.
Tea Clipper is the obvious one but his jumping puts me off. He did run very well at Aintree last year though.
Nothing particularly standing out at the moment. Espoir De Teillee possibly. Stepping up in trip and could bring out improvement. 50/1 is fair at the moment but may get bigger tomorrow.
17:15 Grand National
Last winner I've had in this race was in 2008 so I'm usually useless.
Enjoy D'allen and Freewheelin Dylan have been my picks from the start of the season. JP removed 2 horses to get School Boy Hours in so I'll chance him as well.
18:20 Bumper
Kings horse, Ernest Gray, was impressive last time out. Probably should just do Willie's in the bumper but don't like either of them.
Ray
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A nice bet im looking at tommorow is also in the race with TSL i see william hill are offering the “bet without TSL & walking in air” market and noticed that stage star is 9/2! For a horse who showed alot before that ballymore run thats a huge price to beat the rest of the field so ill be getting involved with that aswell as a nice single on TSL so hopefully its a scoop twice in 1 race job
1.45 Third Wind/Dans Le Vent/If the Cap Fits
2.25 Looks likely to be Three Stripe Life at a short price maybe Stage Star will upset the fav? e/w vaue Nells Son and Captain Conby
3.0 Edwardstome e/w Mick Pastor (but I'd love crack head For Pleasure to win)
3.35 Given the form patterns Thyme Hill
2.25 Looks likely to be Three Stripe Life at a short price maybe Stage Star will upset the fav? e/w vaue Nells Son and Captain Conby
3.0 Edwardstome e/w Mick Pastor (but I'd love crack head For Pleasure to win)
3.35 Given the form patterns Thyme Hill
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