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2026 Novice Hurdlers

What a great day.
A British trained first four in the supreme, Aaron lads dream.
Now the big bossman is a best priced 17/2 for the turners
 
With the strange exception of Sober, it seems the market believes that because the home team dominated the Supreme they will also dominate the Turners. That seems a little bit simplistic. Bossman Jack, having won a couple of mickey mouse races, is all of a sudden expected to beat Grade 1 horses. He is promising, and nicely bred, but it's almost a surprise to see him in the field, let alone winning the race. Will wait and see if they continue to kick the Irish horses out. Will we get the same ground again?
 
kinloch brae said:
With the strange exception of Sober, it seems the market believes that because the home team dominated the Supreme they will also dominate the Turners. That seems a little bit simplistic. Bossman Jack, having won a couple of mickey mouse races, is all of a sudden expected to beat Grade 1 horses. He is promising, and nicely bred, but it's almost a surprise to see him in the field, let alone winning the race. Will wait and see if they continue to kick the Irish horses out. Will we get the same ground again?
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Sometimes it is that simplistic.
If the Irish horses that were beaten in the supreme have form ties with those in the turners and vice versa British horses, the British horses automatically become more fancied because of today's result.
 
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kinloch brae said:
With the strange exception of Sober, it seems the market believes that because the home team dominated the Supreme they will also dominate the Turners. That seems a little bit simplistic. Bossman Jack, having won a couple of mickey mouse races, is all of a sudden expected to beat Grade 1 horses. He is promising, and nicely bred, but it's almost a surprise to see him in the field, let alone winning the race. Will wait and see if they continue to kick the Irish horses out. Will we get the same ground again?
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Sober is the one not involved in the talk the talk formline so hasnt drifted
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Sober is the one not involved in the talk the talk formline so hasnt drifted
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I think this is being overplayed (not by you, I mean, by the market). Talk The Talk was off the bridle so early on. That wasn't his true running. I'm not sure the reason, whether the pace was too quick, whether he didn't like coming down the hill, or whether he was just out of sorts. Either way, I don't think it's a huge indicator for tomorrow's race.

I'm happy taking some bigger prices on Skylight and Ballyfad anyway - they've all but double in price.
 
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Exar Essay said:
I think this is being overplayed (not by you, I mean, by the market). Talk The Talk was off the bridle so early on. That wasn't his true running. I'm not sure the reason, whether the pace was too quick, whether he didn't like coming down the hill, or whether he was just out of sorts. Either way, I don't think it's a huge indicator for tomorrow's race.

I'm happy taking some bigger prices on Skylight and Ballyfad anyway - they've all but double in price.
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Overplayed for sure.👍🏿
Childish market really.
 
Exar Essay said:
I think this is being overplayed (not by you, I mean, by the market). Talk The Talk was off the bridle so early on. That wasn't his true running. I'm not sure the reason, whether the pace was too quick, whether he didn't like coming down the hill, or whether he was just out of sorts. Either way, I don't think it's a huge indicator for tomorrow's race.

I'm happy taking some bigger prices on Skylight and Ballyfad anyway - they've all but double in price.
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Hope you are correct as i have 20s on rasko, skylight and sober

I still fancy skylight hustle. Good jumper, strong traveller, 2 mile form. Ticks all the boxes i look for.

Though this isnt a normal turners, with 22 runners they may well go a stronger gallop than usual and itll be the stronger stayers that come to the fore
 
Today showed how much of an advantage being near the pace is on this hurdle course. Apart from Mighty Park, you had the British contingent handy and the Irish sitting in behind. I don’t think it will be like that tomorrow.

I’m not sure whether I’ll Sort That or Ballyfad will lead, and I’d expect AoI, KRG and NDTE to be in behind. It’s a big field but they’re on the turn quickly and it makes it difficult to up the pace and if you’re far back, difficult to make places early on.

Ballyfad being 5 puts me off and I’m not sure he needs a step up, I’ll Sort That is respectable but I’d prefer one with a better jockey, AoI I can see running well but be disappointed if he was good enough to win, Skylight Hustle would have been beat easy enough by TTT at Xmas when TTT didn’t get an optimal route and passed by JK.

I can’t have Nichols horse. He’s just in the long line of his where they prove to be too slow over the final half mile and go on to better things over fences.

KRG is interesting. Galiway’s are better on sounder surface and he hasn’t seen that yet over hurdles. Sire of Vauban, Jimmy du Seuil and Gala Marceau (I don’t think another of his has run at the festival) so 2 winners and a 2nd isn’t bad going. Step up will suit and he has Paul on board. Hopefully he has him handy and not shuffled in the pack.

Sortudo should run well. Danny rides Cheltenham very well, decent effort before being outpaced last year in the bumper and might be an in play bet if he’s near the front coming round the first bend.
 
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Exar Essay said:
I think this is being overplayed (not by you, I mean, by the market). Talk The Talk was off the bridle so early on. That wasn't his true running. I'm not sure the reason, whether the pace was too quick, whether he didn't like coming down the hill, or whether he was just out of sorts. Either way, I don't think it's a huge indicator for tomorrow's race.

I'm happy taking some bigger prices on Skylight and Ballyfad anyway - they've all but double in price.
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Fucks sake. Tom Seagull agrees with me. Lay them all.
 
couldn’t believe how wide some of the horses are going around the final bend

Was at the course today and it looked extremely sharp, and tight. Anything coming 3-4 horses wide where being throw towards the outside

I say it every year but always discount how much the old course on quick ground favours the horse that is up with the pace, near the front.

Pretty simple.

Could call out what had a chance today after 3-4 fences

So tomorrow, I’m shortlisting and backing in-play

Do need to remember to switch on Thursday and Friday, back to stayers
 
Ballyfitz said:
How is I’ll Sort That 35/1 on the exchange - been the same since Christmas, I just don’t get it

Bossman Jack on the other hand…
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I keep coming back to him over and over again, is there something I'm missing? Other than the small trainer can't get AI to move the market for him
 
DenmanSacre said:
Today showed how much of an advantage being near the pace is on this hurdle course. Apart from Mighty Park, you had the British contingent handy and the Irish sitting in behind. I don’t think it will be like that tomorrow.

I’m not sure whether I’ll Sort That or Ballyfad will lead, and I’d expect AoI, KRG and NDTE to be in behind. It’s a big field but they’re on the turn quickly and it makes it difficult to up the pace and if you’re far back, difficult to make places early on.

Ballyfad being 5 puts me off and I’m not sure he needs a step up, I’ll Sort That is respectable but I’d prefer one with a better jockey, AoI I can see running well but be disappointed if he was good enough to win, Skylight Hustle would have been beat easy enough by TTT at Xmas when TTT didn’t get an optimal route and passed by JK.

I can’t have Nichols horse. He’s just in the long line of his where they prove to be too slow over the final half mile and go on to better things over fences.

KRG is interesting. Galiway’s are better on sounder surface and he hasn’t seen that yet over hurdles. Sire of Vauban, Jimmy du Seuil and Gala Marceau (I don’t think another of his has run at the festival) so 2 winners and a 2nd isn’t bad going. Step up will suit and he has Paul on board. Hopefully he has him handy and not shuffled in the pack.

Sortudo should run well. Danny rides Cheltenham very well, decent effort before being outpaced last year in the bumper and might be an in play bet if he’s near the front coming round the first bend.
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Do you have a view on Skylight Hustle's breeding? I think he might handle the ground alright. KRG and Sober should too. Horses out of Mark Of Esteem mare's seem to have a slight preference for better ground over jumps. Jukebox Jury's look very ground versatile.

I'd probably be siding with Sober other than for that fact that I think they'll try and settle him towards the rear. He'll need to be in the van turning for home. Todays races showed how much ground those going wide, even just 3 or 4 wide, were losing.
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Hope you are correct as i have 20s on rasko, skylight and sober

I still fancy skylight hustle. Good jumper, strong traveller, 2 mile form. Ticks all the boxes i look for.

Though this isnt a normal turners, with 22 runners they may well go a stronger gallop than usual and itll be the stronger stayers that come to the fore
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I've always liked Skylight Hussle, and tend to think the owners do well with those running at middle trip
Jack not riding is a concern
 
Ellisgittings said:
In all seriousness I thought he ran a good race for his experience. Nice 3m chaser for next year
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Waiting on the Willie Mullins quotes.

'When Mark got off him, he said he had a look around at the last and couldn't believe how far in front they all were, going what he thought was a normal fast pace, he said his cruising speed must be shit'
 
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….Hugh Taylor going with Zeus Power, 100-1 a few days ago.
 
opatcho said:
I've always liked Skylight Hussle, and tend to think the owners do well with those running at middle trip
Jack not riding is a concern
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I like him as well, was more keen before I saw Talk the Talk run yesterday!!
Would be concerned if already backed the Irish novices for today.
Sortudo and/or I’ll Sort That could be the best of them today?
 
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