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2026 Novice Chasers

Lulamba 167 RPR. Would of had him a couple of pounds higher. No horse getting an RPR of 167 or higher prior to the Arkle has been beat in the last 10 years.

Highest beaten in that period was the 165 Saint Calvados had for winning the Kingmaker by 22 lengths. He finished only 4th of the 5 runners, though interestingly the three to finish ahead of him had also attained an RPR of at least 160 going in with the race won by Footpad with a 168 prior. Majborough and Jonbon both had an RPR best of 164 though Jonbon was only 2nd highest in his year after El Fabiolo had achieved 167.

Obviously RPR's are subject to change but does give you a guide.
 
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Runragged said:
Lulamba 167 RPR. Would of had him a couple of pounds higher. No horse getting an RPR of 167 or higher prior to the Arkle has been beat in the last 10 years.

Highest beaten in that period was the 165 Saint Calvados had for winning the Kingmaker by 22 lengths. He finished only 4th of the 5 runners, though interestingly the three to finish ahead of him had also attained an RPR of at least 160 going in with the race won by Footpad with a 168 prior. Majborough and Jonbon both had an RPR best of 164 though Jonbon was only 2nd highest in his year after El Fabiolo had achieved 167.

Obviously RPR's are subject to change but does give you a guide.
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Should add further context. 6 horses have gone in with a 167 or higher and they all won, ranging from the 167 of Edwardstone and El Fabiolo to 175 of Altior.
 
Runragged said:
Should add further context. 6 horses have gone in with a 167 or higher and they all won, ranging from the 167 of Edwardstone and El Fabiolo to 175 of Altior.
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Did they really go in with that rating though ?
Or does it just look like it cos they’ve gone back and re rated after the arkle ?
 
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Quevega said:
Did they really go in with that rating though ?
Or does it just look like it cos they’ve gone back and re rated after the arkle ?
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Thats the question really isnt it

And are there other horses that didnt win the arkle that had RPRs lowered
 
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His RPR relies on taking Saint Segal, Calico, and Liberty Hunter as having run within 2lb of their career bests. I’m a little sceptical. No doubt the best 2m novice chase performance of the year, though.
 
Sixmilebridge... jesus! what a puzzle this will be :

“I’m just focusing on getting him to Cheltenham first before deciding on his target and he’s had a quiet week after a hard race.
“There are a lot of things to consider and in the mix and if it came up bottomless and there were only four runners in an Arkle you could go that way, while if it was very soft you wouldn’t want to go three miles in a Brown Advisory.
“Probably his best trip at the minute is two-and-a-half miles with him wanting three miles in time, so in an ideal world, and I could make a wish, it would be soft ground and I would probably line him up in the handicap.”
The Cheltenham Festival has proven a cruel mistress for the locally-based Irishman who, although enjoying notable victories at the track, is still awaiting a first success during National Hunt racing’s showpiece event.
On his wait for a first winner at the meeting, O’Brien added: “I can’t wait to get it over with and hopefully he is as good a chance as we’ve had.
“We were unlucky with Alaphilippe (beaten a neck in the Pertemps) and Imperial Alcazar (second in the Plate) on the same afternoon (in 2022) and Barney Dwan went close when he bumped into a very good Graded horse (Presenting Percy, when second in the 2017 Pertemps).”
 
punterorplonker said:
Sixmilebridge... jesus! what a puzzle this will be :

“I’m just focusing on getting him to Cheltenham first before deciding on his target and he’s had a quiet week after a hard race.
“There are a lot of things to consider and in the mix and if it came up bottomless and there were only four runners in an Arkle you could go that way, while if it was very soft you wouldn’t want to go three miles in a Brown Advisory.
“Probably his best trip at the minute is two-and-a-half miles with him wanting three miles in time, so in an ideal world, and I could make a wish, it would be soft ground and I would probably line him up in the handicap.”
The Cheltenham Festival has proven a cruel mistress for the locally-based Irishman who, although enjoying notable victories at the track, is still awaiting a first success during National Hunt racing’s showpiece event.
On his wait for a first winner at the meeting, O’Brien added: “I can’t wait to get it over with and hopefully he is as good a chance as we’ve had.
“We were unlucky with Alaphilippe (beaten a neck in the Pertemps) and Imperial Alcazar (second in the Plate) on the same afternoon (in 2022) and Barney Dwan went close when he bumped into a very good Graded horse (Presenting Percy, when second in the 2017 Pertemps).”
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So he goes to the Jack Richards unless its heavy then

Sorted :ROFLMAO:
 
Fairly good reflection of the state of British racing there I'd say.

Probably your second best novice chaser whose just won one of your big grade ones might be running away to a handicap because the trainers scared of the big boys.

Trainer is irish though at the same time 😂
 
riccirich said:
Fairly good reflection of the state of British racing there I'd say.

Probably your second best novice chaser whose just won one of your big grade ones might be running away to a handicap because the trainers scared of the big boys.

Trainer is irish though at the same time 😂
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The other issue is the handicapper giving him a chance. If Kitzbuhel had won the Scilly Isles like that, I'm sure he'd have gotten a rating of 155+.
 
Exar Essay said:
The other issue is the handicapper giving him a chance. If Kitzbuhel had won the Scilly Isles like that, I'm sure he'd have gotten a rating of 155+.
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Yeah no doubt. Even still, you'd like to see a bit more ambition. Even if kitzbuhel was to get a similar rating I'd say there'd be very little chance you'd see him running in a novice handicap instead of the grade one. Trainer just desperate for a festival win of any kind probably.
 
Wallpark dropped to 142 in IRE
Oscars upped 3 to 151
Probably a fair assessment.
5 runs over fences now so over to the UK handicapper.
 
Exar Essay said:
His RPR relies on taking Saint Segal, Calico, and Liberty Hunter as having run within 2lb of their career bests. I’m a little sceptical. No doubt the best 2m novice chase performance of the year, though.
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I don't think it is unreasonable. Saint Segal is in the form of his life and had a lot in his favour. Libberty Hunter was 2nd in similar conditions in the race last year which got him an RPR of 158. Calico has run career bests the last twice.
 
riccirich said:
Yeah no doubt. Even still, you'd like to see a bit more ambition. Even if kitzbuhel was to get a similar rating I'd say there'd be very little chance you'd see him running in a novice handicap instead of the grade one. Trainer just desperate for a festival win of any kind probably.
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Isn't this just a case of taking away the 2 1/2m graded race? If it was still there he would probably of ran in it. All three chase runs have been at 2 1/2 miles so going 2m or 3m would both have question marks about them. In his three runs so far he has beat a total of 6 horses home if excluding the Kitzbuhel unseat. He can be upped to 3m in the Mildmay at Aintree if they want, following the same path as Caldwell Potter.
 
Runragged said:
Isn't this just a case of taking away the 2 1/2m graded race? If it was still there he would probably of ran in it. All three chase runs have been at 2 1/2 miles so going 2m or 3m would both have question marks about them. In his three runs so far he has beat a total of 6 horses home if excluding the Kitzbuhel unseat. He can be upped to 3m in the Mildmay at Aintree if they want, following the same path as Caldwell Potter.
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He probably would go for a two and a half grade one if it was still there, but at the same time i dont think they have any worries about the three miles trip personally.

After his win the trainer was definite that he'd be going to Cheltenham and that he'd be going for the brown advisory most likely, seemed pretty confident and didnt seem worried at all about the trip. He then said we'll see what the Irish have at the drf. Well since then the big Irish fave has completely flopped, which you'd think would have made him even more confident about his horses chances. So the only thing I'd see that has changed since then is he's saw the horse hasn't gone up as much as he thought, and he wants to try and win what he thinks is the easiest race to get a festival win of any kind.
 
I wouldn’t be swapping our chap and it’s super exciting. We’ve been lucky enough to have a couple of Festival winners, but those were probably longer prices, so to go there with a fairly short-priced horse for it is really exciting.
Jamie Snowden on Wendigo
 
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