2026 Champion Hurdle

[kinloch brae]

I think Golden Ace should have a rating a bit nearer the others and given it’s a 2m race we are talking about she’s probably as much chance of winning as BDA and Lossiemouth. Also think she might have beaten TNL anyway ,had he not fallen, and pretty sure would have been close If she didn’t.
So anyone that says she might win on merit has a case imo.

Yes, I think she would have beaten The New Lion at Newcastle. You could easily make a case that she should be favourite. The one with all the holes is The New Lion. Without the hill I think he would have even struggled to win a really poor International. They won't be able to nurse maid him in a Champion Hurdle. I think backers have got carried away with some typical bluster from Skelton, and the fact a few horses have successfully dropped back in trip. I suspect they went into the race with far more on the table than this one.

 

[kinloch brae]

I think it might be dangerous to just rely on ratings here though. For the exposed horses, by all means, but for me there are 3 in the field who are unexposed at 2 mile Grade 1 level. I would immdeiately knoock that down to 2 as I think it is a season too soon for Poniros. The other two are Alexei and The New Lion. Alexei has plenty to find on official ratings but I'm sure he will improve for spring ground and, arguably, his most impressive performance to date was in the Greatwood (same C&D). The New Lion (whose career record reads 11111F1) would be looking to join the likes of Faugheen and Hardy Eustace by dropping back in distance from the Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle to take the following season's Champion Hurdle. Whilst he has not yet recorded a form figure that woud entitle him to be favourite for a Champion Hurdle, I do think he could be capable of it. If you look back at Faugheen's 2 runs prior to winning the Champion Hurdle, he beat Blue Fashion 3 lengths at Ascot and Purple Bay 8 lengths at Kempton. Now, you could argue Purple Bay was rated 161 in that Kempton race but I would argue all day long that was a bollocks mark (he was 7th in that year's Galway Hurdle off 153 which is more like his level). What I am trying to say (in a very roundabout way) is that The New Lion shouldn't be dismissed because he has "looked like a stayer" (look at Faugheen's novice season) and "hasn't run to 165" yet. He could put up a 165-168 performance if the race were run to suit, he got the right breaks and he is over his jumping nerves from Newcastle. He could come to the last hurdle slipstreaming Lossiemouth and go past her in the last 100 yards. Would I back him at 11/4 with Unibet today? No, I'll wait for the day of the race now and see who lines up.

 

[kinloch brae]

I think it might be dangerous to just rely on ratings here though. For the exposed horses, by all means, but for me there are 3 in the field who are unexposed at 2 mile Grade 1 level. I would immdeiately knoock that down to 2 as I think it is a season too soon for Poniros. The other two are Alexei and The New Lion. Alexei has plenty to find on official ratings but I'm sure he will improve for spring ground and, arguably, his most impressive performance to date was in the Greatwood (same C&D). The New Lion (whose career record reads 11111F1) would be looking to join the likes of Faugheen and Hardy Eustace by dropping back in distance from the Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle to take the following season's Champion Hurdle. Whilst he has not yet recorded a form figure that woud entitle him to be favourite for a Champion Hurdle, I do think he could be capable of it. If you look back at Faugheen's 2 runs prior to winning the Champion Hurdle, he beat Blue Fashion 3 lengths at Ascot and Purple Bay 8 lengths at Kempton. Now, you could argue Purple Bay was rated 161 in that Kempton race but I would argue all day long that was a bollocks mark (he was 7th in that year's Galway Hurdle off 153 which is more like his level). What I am trying to say (in a very roundabout way) is that The New Lion shouldn't be dismissed because he has "looked like a stayer" (look at Faugheen's novice season) and "hasn't run to 165" yet. He could put up a 165-168 performance if the race were run to suit, he got the right breaks and he is over his jumping nerves from Newcastle. He could come to the last hurdle slipstreaming Lossiemouth and go past her in the last 100 yards. Would I back him at 11/4 with Unibet today? No, I'll wait for the day of the race now and see who lines up.

Faugheen won a Grade 1 novice over the minimum distance by double digits. He was also able to dictate his own pace which The New Lion isn't able to do. He won the Champion Hurdle off 169, The New Lion is only 159. He got that rating off the back of the Turners, and for me it now looks flattering.

 

[FredFlintstone]

Would have BDA not have beaten golden ace in the mares novice if she didn't have the 5lb penalty

 

[Odddog]

Faugheen won a Grade 1 novice over the minimum distance by double digits. He was also able to dictate his own pace which The New Lion isn't able to do. He won the Champion Hurdle off 169, The New Lion is only 159. He got that rating off the back of the Turners, and for me it now looks flattering.

The Turners form is certainly open to question but I'm not sure it can be chucked in the bin just yet, especially if you look further down the field. I think Elliott has struggled with trying to make The Yellow Clay (2nd in the Turners) a stayer and has just failed miserably. Final Demand (3rd) looked a top novice chaser until his mysterious flop at the DRF - that could have been a one off, we'll need to see what he does next time. No idea what has happened with Forty Coats (4th) but he hasn't been able to even grab a place in 2 maiden hurdles - maybe he just got lucky at Cheltenham. However, Potters Charm (5th), another who they have tried to make a stayer, won well last time out over 2m4f and is now rated 154. A couple of those further back in the Turners (Kappa Jy Pyke - now rated 152 over fences - and Sixmilebridge - now rated 150 over fences) have done very well over the larger obstacles. I think the Turners can often be a funny race in terms of future form, because connecitons are unsure of what to do trip-wise the following season.

 

[Quevega]

Its not that relevant whether you think Golden Ace would have beaten New Lion at Newcastle.
The more relevant fact is how close Anzadam and Nemean Lion were to her that day.
That's her level.
That's as good as she is.
Touching 150ish.

Never ran to a better rating, and is only rated 152 off the back of winning last years Champion hurdle, and that was based around beating Burdett road.
He earned his own (too high) rating finishing 6L behind Lossiemouth in the kempton race that the flat horse won.
He went up 8lb that day after going up 9lb the race before beating be aware 1/2 a length.

The champion hurdle is priced as though flat horse and Lossie don;t go, that is the issue with anyone thinking Golden ace is a bet at current prices. You'd have to strongly believe that both those 2 don't run. Or be trusting in luck that one or two drop out through injury before decs.

 

[Odddog]

Was just thinking "who the feck is this flat horse he keeps talking about" but the penny has just dropped

 

[Lobos]

Who do we think will actually line up ??

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Its not that relevant whether you think Golden Ace would have beaten New Lion at Newcastle.
The more relevant fact is how close Anzadam and Nemean Lion were to her that day.
That's her level.
That's as good as she is.
Touching 150ish.

Never ran to a better rating, and is only rated 152 off the back of winning last years Champion hurdle, and that was based around beating Burdett road.
He earned his own (too high) rating finishing 6L behind Lossiemouth in the kempton race that the flat horse won.
He went up 8lb that day after going up 9lb the race before beating be aware 1/2 a length.

The champion hurdle is priced as though flat horse and Lossie don;t go, that is the issue with anyone thinking Golden ace is a bet at current prices. You'd have to strongly believe that both those 2 don't run. Or be trusting in luck that one or two drop out through injury before decs.

Nemean Lion suggests their ain’t much between TNL and GA,so could be looked at that one is too high or one is too low, or bit of both, bringing them close together.
Of course it’s not literal but it is one way of looking at it.
TNL is currently fav on oddschecker.
Of the other two mares, one does not seem as good at Cheltenham, and the other seems better to me over two and a half.
Edit….. Imo if they are all rated over 2m they are closer than ratings suggest.

 

[Odddog]

Alexei
Anzadam
Brighterdaysahead
Casheldale Lad
Golden Ace
The New Lion
MAYBEEEEEEEE Lossiemouth

 

[Odddog]

I think Anzadam definitely goes here the way the race has cut up - try and grab 3rd or 4th. No chance of getting that sort of return from the County Hurdle IMHO.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Was just thinking "who the feck is this flat horse he keeps talking about" but the penny has just dropped

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Was just thinking "who the feck is this flat horse he keeps talking about" but the penny has just dropped

Don't encourage him ffs

 

[Quevega]

Nemean Lion suggests their ain’t much between TNL and GA,so could be looked at that one is too high or one is too low, or bit of both, bringing them close together.
Of course it’s not literal but it is one way of looking at it.
TNL is currently fav on oddschecker.
Of the other two mares, one does not seem as good at Cheltenham, and the other seems better to me over two and a half.
Edit….. Imo if they are all rated over 2m they are closer than ratings suggest.

New Lion gets a little bit of a pass as that race was not truly run whatsoever.
He could be better than his rating, he just has not had the chance to prove it in a suitable race where he hasn't fell over.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

New Lion gets a little bit of a pass as that race was not truly run whatsoever.
He could be better than his rating, he just has not had the chance to prove it in a suitable race where he hasn't fell over.

Yeah was a crap race really.
Much like a lot of the so called CH trials imo.
Still we’ve got the next CH trial coming up Friday evening!!

 

[Jrow]

Alexei
Anzadam
Con Hill
Golden Ace
Lossiemouth
Nemean Lion
Poniros
The New Lion
Tutti Quanti

I think Lossie will win

 

[Eggs]

….Lads C Hill Southwell/CH specials;

To win & run in CH 15/8
To win & not run in CH 8-1

They also offer a number of win by distance odds.

 

[Odddog]

Alexei
Anzadam
Con Hill
Golden Ace
Lossiemouth
Nemean Lion
Poniros
The New Lion
Tutti Quanti

I think Lossie will win

Nemean Lion not entered (can't remember whether he was entered and then scratched, or if he was never entered)

Tutti Quanti will need supplementing

 

[kinloch brae]

Nemean Lion suggests their ain’t much between TNL and GA,so could be looked at that one is too high or one is too low, or bit of both, bringing them close together.
Of course it’s not literal but it is one way of looking at it.

It's a lot better than just having a pop at one horse, and ignoring everything else. If you have backed Golden Ace you shouldn't be frightened of both Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth running. Nobody knows what Constitution Hill has left to offer. He has little to gain, and lots to lose on Friday. His very limited career could be over, and as regards Lossiemouth how can you be worried about a horse who connections don't have the confidence to even commit to running.

 

[Quevega]

Alexei
Anzadam
Con Hill
Golden Ace
Lossiemouth
Nemean Lion
Poniros
The New Lion
Tutti Quanti

I think Lossie will win

I agree with this.
Just can;t make my mind up on the 3rd in the list.

Tough one to call and predict how they will justify a decision to run.
They lack bollocks usually but it will take bollocks to decide either way.

I'd hate for them to make the owner the scapegoat though. Hopefully not.
I sort of hope he wins the flat race really well and they just say that he is now a flat horse.