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2026 Champion Hurdle

If he does run I can see it being an anti-climax. Even at the end of his ten race winning sequence I felt it was getting harder with each race, and that was before the jumping frailties kicked in. He has been falling too early to tell how much, or how little ability is left. He is no Sea Pigeon who later in life almost re-invented himself as a flat horse. More importantly, he was bred for the game, winning his only race at two, and subsequently running seventh in a Derby. How many flat winners has Blue Bresil produced? He hasn't produced that many other decent jumpers.
 
Bit of a move for Lossiemouth this evening.

Yeah Baby !
 
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People keep saying it's a weak champion hurdle but lossiemouth,brighter days ahead, new lion are all very good.
 
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Still an hour to go, but a load of horses not currently declared for the flat race @ Southwell. Constitution Hill has been declared, obviously!
 
BigL said:
People keep saying it's a weak champion hurdle but lossiemouth,brighter days ahead, new lion are all very good.
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They have been frightened to commit Lossiemouth to a Champion even in these weak times, Brighterdaysahead has been beaten twice at the Festival, and The New Lion has always been much too short given he has no real form at two miles, and his form at further has looked increasingly dodgy. We are at a stage where Golden Ace looks the solid option.
 
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Golden Ace was a fortunate winner last season, this year she could very well win it on merit.
 
I have seen so many mention Golden Ace.
But she's got 10lb to find on the other 2 mares IMO.
She will run to a certain level on most days though and seems a couple pounds better at Cheltenham.
But I would have her a double figure price assuming the other mares turn up and New Lion and that Flat horse also.
I very much doubt she will win on merit, she will need someone to have an off day or a mishap
 
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Quevega said:
I have seen so many mention Golden Ace.
But she's got 10lb to find on the other 2 mares IMO.
She will run to a certain level on most days though and seems a couple pounds better at Cheltenham.
But I would have her a double figure price assuming the other mares turn up and New Lion and that Flat horse also.
I very much doubt she will win on merit, she will need someone to have an off day or a mishap
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Brighterdaysahead will run 10lb below her best at Cheltenham anyway, and we are still waiting on Lossiemouth to be given the green light for the race.

The New Lion's form is no better, possibly worse than hers though, IMO, so actually, which one is too short?

Something has to win though, really hoping Lossiemouth turns up, then it's a done deal :ROFLMAO:
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
Brighterdaysahead will run 10lb below her best at Cheltenham anyway, and we are still waiting on Lossiemouth to be given the green light for the race.

The New Lion's form is no better, possibly worse than hers though, IMO, so actually, which one is too short?

Something has to win though, really hoping Lossiemouth turns up, then it's a done deal :ROFLMAO:
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New Lion and Golden are both too short. 4th and fifth fav on the day if the others turn up.

I'm coming round to thinking BDA might run a little better.
I've not had a penny on her as of yet though.
I think her pacemaker went too fast last year and she was gassing jumping the last then got mullered so didn't even have the chance to show any stamina reserves. She was also not at her very best like the leopardstown race last xmas.
But had they not gone so hard then I'd imagine she would have been a good second to State man who looked on top form all the way through that race.
 
Quevega said:
New Lion and Golden are both too short. 4th and fifth fav on the day if the others turn up.

I'm coming round to thinking BDA might run a little better.
I've not had a penny on her as of yet though.
I think her pacemaker went too fast last year and she was gassing jumping the last then got mullered so didn't even have the chance to show any stamina reserves. She was also not at her very best like the leopardstown race last xmas.
But had they not gone so hard then I'd imagine she would have been a good second to State man who looked on top form all the way through that race.
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BDA has the potential, but given her previous defeats, both times by Golden Ace, I'm not being sucked in to backing her this year, for all that might bite me in the arse!

If you've got double figures prices they look good now, for sure, but not at current prices!
 
I don't think Golden Ace is too short relative to those at the top end. She already has a win over Brighterdaysahead who in turn has a win over Lossiemouth, and as I said The New Lion is the one who has the most to find. I don't see that first Cheltenham as a fluke. She wouldn't have been beaten that far by State Man, and subsequently ran well against him at Punchestown. Without State Man that form might well be good enough.

It's ironic, but the main fear I have for Golden Ace is her jumping. Newcastle was probably her best, but she went backwards in that department at Kempton.
 
kinloch brae said:
I don't think Golden Ace is too short relative to those at the top end. She already has a win over Brighterdaysahead who in turn has a win over Lossiemouth, and as I said The New Lion is the one who has the most to find. I don't see that first Cheltenham as a fluke. She wouldn't have been beaten that far by State Man, and subsequently ran well against him at Punchestown. Without State Man that form might well be good enough.

It's ironic, but the main fear I have for Golden Ace is her jumping. Newcastle was probably her best, but she went backwards in that department at Kempton.
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She's definitely too short with the bookmakers, best price 7's and 6's general.
Plenty of available layers at 9-1 on exchange.
And it's not like she has any other targets or doubts about participation.
If they confirm and/or turn up then the market suggests she will be double figures on the day.
 
I think Golden Ace should have a rating a bit nearer the others and given it’s a 2m race we are talking about she’s probably as much chance of winning as BDA and Lossiemouth. Also think she might have beaten TNL anyway ,had he not fallen, and pretty sure would have been close If she didn’t.
So anyone that says she might win on merit has a case imo.
 
Quevega said:
She's definitely too short with the bookmakers, best price 7's and 6's general.
Plenty of available layers at 9-1 on exchange.
And it's not like she has any other targets or doubts about participation.
If they confirm and/or turn up then the market suggests she will be double figures on the day.
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atm everything is a false price cos we don't know the field and NRNB.

If both other mares are declared, I think she'll be a much bigger price morning of than now
 
I think it might be dangerous to just rely on ratings here though. For the exposed horses, by all means, but for me there are 3 in the field who are unexposed at 2 mile Grade 1 level. I would immdeiately knoock that down to 2 as I think it is a season too soon for Poniros. The other two are Alexei and The New Lion. Alexei has plenty to find on official ratings but I'm sure he will improve for spring ground and, arguably, his most impressive performance to date was in the Greatwood (same C&D). The New Lion (whose career record reads 11111F1) would be looking to join the likes of Faugheen and Hardy Eustace by dropping back in distance from the Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle to take the following season's Champion Hurdle. Whilst he has not yet recorded a form figure that woud entitle him to be favourite for a Champion Hurdle, I do think he could be capable of it. If you look back at Faugheen's 2 runs prior to winning the Champion Hurdle, he beat Blue Fashion 3 lengths at Ascot and Purple Bay 8 lengths at Kempton. Now, you could argue Purple Bay was rated 161 in that Kempton race but I would argue all day long that was a bollocks mark (he was 7th in that year's Galway Hurdle off 153 which is more like his level). What I am trying to say (in a very roundabout way) is that The New Lion shouldn't be dismissed because he has "looked like a stayer" (look at Faugheen's novice season) and "hasn't run to 165" yet. He could put up a 165-168 performance if the race were run to suit, he got the right breaks and he is over his jumping nerves from Newcastle. He could come to the last hurdle slipstreaming Lossiemouth and go past her in the last 100 yards. Would I back him at 11/4 with Unibet today? No, I'll wait for the day of the race now and see who lines up.
 
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