Half the time I think some of the trainers are guessing as well. On the flat, Aidan was the best Guineas trainer you've seen. Then after 2021 he can't train em. He's had two go off odds on, subsequent derby winners, and they've ran like 85 rated handicappers. No way is he leaving them short for a Guineas. He thinks he's got them where he wants them, he just doesn't know.
Horses that put in monster performances often don't go back there, I remember reading a good thread on it a while back on twitter. It's why horses that don't break the clock like State Man turn back up year on year. They won't reach the red zone again. One interesting one for that is Footpad - I can't remember the source, but he did his own speed figures on racing. He won that Arkle by some distance in that horrendous gallop and ran a monster clock time. Won at Punchestown but never returned the same horse, and bled under pressure the year after at Chelt again. Cyrname another clock monster who only won once after that bruiser against Altior, and even then he beat handicappers. Rest of the time he didn't even finish.
Gold Cup horses can be similar - ran at a breakneck gallop generally, championship pace over a staying distance, pushes horses to a place they'll never fancy going back to. Only issue compared to a human is they can't tell us they don't want to do that again.
For me, that combined with her cheltenham record just makes BDA hard to back. Interesting how they price up the rematch at the DRF.
and there was me thinking I knew everything
