2026 Champion Hurdle

[Carnage at Taunton]

But if he beats last year's CH winner he goes single figures doesn't he ?

IF !!
Maybe?

 

[FinalFurlong91]

I might be kicking myself in the balls… but I can’t have BDA for here. 2x fez losses with 2 different excuses I just don’t think it’s her course. On the other side it’s looking like a poor renewal at the mo

Id imagine both lossie and BDA had very hard races on that ground

Has BDA left her season behind again?

Lossie takes her racing well so more likely to be back to her best in 5 weeks

The mullins tactics were incredibly bad. The way lossie beats BDA is in a sprint not in a race like that.

So not only did they lose they also gave lossie a very very hard race. She was legless at the finish

 

[Benjy23]

Over 2 miles you can be looking at a sustained pace of 33/34 mph (the odd small dip). An even pace over two and a half probably closer to 30. 10% difference doesn't sound much but it can easily be the difference for a horse finding its rhythm. Yes they probably wasn't going that fast today in them conditions, but the extra output required has to be factored in.

According to Race IQ...

Yesterday for Lossiemouth:
Top Speed 32mph
Average hurdle entry speed 29mph

In the Mares at Cheltenham last year
Top Speed 37mph
Average hurdle entry speed 31mph

I appreciate the ground plays a big part in the differences between these figures. But the arguement that she can't handle the pace or can't jump at the pace over two miles is just nonsense isn't it? The ground difference almost proves this.

 

[Quevega]

According to Race IQ...

Yesterday for Lossiemouth:
Top Speed 32mph
Average hurdle entry speed 29mph

In the Mares at Cheltenham last year
Top Speed 37mph
Average hurdle entry speed 31mph

I appreciate the ground plays a big part in the differences between these figures. But the arguement that she can't handle the pace or can't jump at the pace over two miles is just nonsense isn't it? The ground difference almost proves this.

Yeah, thanks for doing my job, it's bullshit the whole pace for 2 miles bollocks.
She didn;t look quite right yesterday
El Fabiolo set off a bit quick.
She made a couple of airy jumps early yesterday and got a couple lenghts too far back from BDA for Pauls liking.
She then made up some of the ground on the deepest part of the track cos I think Paul had to try at that point.
And then BDA stayed better on that ground and she never got nearer or further away.
They were all tired cos El Fabiolo went too quick early on that ground IMO.
It was very similar to the Con Hill race really, except ground and course very different.

The time was the fastest of all the three 2 mile hurdle races yesterday, and although comparing times with past leopardstown races is a bit daft cos they mess with the track so much, and I know they did yesterday. 4m 4sec on bottomless ground was very fast, especially as the finish was probably slow. BDA probably went almost perfect fractions getting a lead, and only slowed a bit after the last.

 

[Brooksie]

According to Race IQ...

Yesterday for Lossiemouth:
Top Speed 32mph
Average hurdle entry speed 29mph

In the Mares at Cheltenham last year
Top Speed 37mph
Average hurdle entry speed 31mph

I appreciate the ground plays a big part in the differences between these figures. But the arguement that she can't handle the pace or can't jump at the pace over two miles is just nonsense isn't it? The ground difference almost proves this.

32 mph on that ground yesterday is just about the same as running 37 mph on better ground. The horse is having to expend the same amount of energy to maintain them lesser speeds.

But using top speed stats at both of these tracks is a bit pointless anyway. Lossie clocked 37 mph coming down that Cheltenham hill on good to soft ground after running slow early fractions can hardly be compared to 32 mph on a track as flat as a pancake in a mud bath can it?

But anyway the fact remains she's travelled and jumped poor in two 2 mile races when they've gone off hard. Burdett Road at Kempton and El Fabiolo yesterday. She doesn't look to enjoy a real strong maintained pace. Yes she can quicken off a sedate pace and ping a few, but when she's struggling to keep up it goes to shit.

Do we think the champion hurdle will be run to suit Lossiemouth? Not a chance.

 

[Eggs]

Mullins said on Monday Lossiemouth “seems fine”, and her owner Rich Ricci told Racing TV: “(We are) puzzled, she’s fine, scoped very well, she just didn’t show up yesterday – she was beat a long way from home.

“Let’s draw a line through it, we’ll consider what we’re going to do.

“She loves Cheltenham and the good news is she’s fine, she was fine this morning, so it was just one of those days, I think.”

Lossiemouth is a best-priced 6-1 for the Champion Hurdle with bet365, who make her the 5-4 favourite to complete a Mares’ Hurdle hat-trick.

“Let’s see how she comes out, the next couple of weeks will tell the tale,” Ricci added.

“I don’t mind running her in either race, actually. She loves Cheltenham, her best trip is probably two and a half (miles), but it’s a wide-open Champion Hurdle, so we’ve got some decisions to make I suppose.”

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Mullins said on Monday Lossiemouth “seems fine”, and her owner Rich Ricci told Racing TV: “(We are) puzzled, she’s fine, scoped very well, she just didn’t show up yesterday – she was beat a long way from home.

“Let’s draw a line through it, we’ll consider what we’re going to do.

“She loves Cheltenham and the good news is she’s fine, she was fine this morning, so it was just one of those days, I think.”

Lossiemouth is a best-priced 6-1 for the Champion Hurdle with bet365, who make her the 5-4 favourite to complete a Mares’ Hurdle hat-trick.

“Let’s see how she comes out, the next couple of weeks will tell the tale,” Ricci added.

“I don’t mind running her in either race, actually. She loves Cheltenham, her best trip is probably two and a half (miles), but it’s a wide-open Champion Hurdle, so we’ve got some decisions to make I suppose.”

This is good news, IF they are actually drawing a line through it, it means her piece of that matters will be the Morgiana, so Champion Hurdle bound it is!

Also mentioning a wide-open Champion Hurdle, why mention that if you weren't heading that way. Could have just stayed quiet about the races depth!

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

This is good news, IF they are actually drawing a line through it, it means her piece of that matters will be the Morgiana, so Champion Hurdle bound it is!

Also mentioning a wide-open Champion Hurdle, why mention that if you weren't heading that way. Could have just stayed quiet about the races depth!

I trust you don't play poker !

 

[Quevega]

This is good news, IF they are actually drawing a line through it, it means her piece of that matters will be the Morgiana, so Champion Hurdle bound it is!

Also mentioning a wide-open Champion Hurdle, why mention that if you weren't heading that way. Could have just stayed quiet about the races depth!

Yep, at least they are thinking logically and sound like ricci will leave it to mullins.
Biggest sway could be Wodhooh not going for some reason.
Then she's long odds on for one race and one of the favs for the other.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I trust you don't play poker !

Used to, lost everything

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

This is good news, IF they are actually drawing a line through it, it means her piece of that matters will be the Morgiana, so Champion Hurdle bound it is!

Also mentioning a wide-open Champion Hurdle, why mention that if you weren't heading that way. Could have just stayed quiet about the races depth!

Also mentioned she’s probably best trip at 2 1/2
Still won’t know till the Sunday probably

 

[7barrows]

How much influence does Ruby Walsh have on lossie; he was stone cold adamant she’s a better 2 and a half miler on racing tv

 

[archie]

How much influence does Ruby Walsh have on lossie; he was stone cold adamant she’s a better 2 and a half miler on racing tv

I'm shocked that anyone would be surprised at that view.

 

[7barrows]

Me too. I just wonder how much Influence he has as that view from a Mullins stable representative seems final re mares opposed to here

 

[archie]

I don't think that Ruby speaks for the stable, particularly on RTV.

 

[Benjy23]

I'm shocked that anyone would be surprised at that view.

Why? It's a proper shite / simplistic view that's unproven.

Until she gets a chance in a Champion Hurdle we'll never know.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

I doubt he has any sway on targets now he doesn't ride, but I'd be sure they take his opinions onboard, not many better judges and his input has served them very well over the years.

 

[Quevega]

Why? It's a proper shite / simplistic view that's unproven.

Until she gets a chance in a Champion Hurdle we'll never know.

Same people probably thought Fact to File doesn't stay.
Also bullshit.
It's all about how these class horses are on the day, in the conditions, how well they jump, tactics, positioning, jockey performance, opposition having a bad day, settled and relaxed, I could go on.
Most good racehorses stay to a point, and all class horses have sufficient pace.
Just got to put it all together on the day, and some are more consistent than others.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Same people probably thought Fact to File doesn't stay.
Also bullshit.
It's all about how these class horses are on the day, in the conditions, how well they jump, tactics, positioning, jockey performance, opposition having a bad day, settled and relaxed, I could go on.
Most good racehorses stay to a point, and all class horses have sufficient pace.
Just got to put it all together on the day, and some are more consistent than others.

Yep, I thought he was a non stayer based on his performance in the same race last year, today he proved me wrong, fair enough.
Just shows need to be a bit careful when judging a horse and his/her capabilities.

 

[Yosser]

He always stayed, just not as well as GDC but now Galopin is on the wane, F2F has as good a chance of any of the others.