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2026 Champion Hurdle

kinloch brae said:
Marked drift on Golden Ace, now double figures. I doubt it's bookmakers just being generous. Sort of thing the media should be chasing up.
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Just my two cents, but ante post has been priced so conservatively, and further compressed by NRNB that I think we will see some big post decs drifts as many horses have been aggressively the wrong price for a long time
 
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robith said:
Just my two cents, but ante post has been priced so conservatively, and further compressed by NRNB that I think we will see some big post decs drifts as many horses have been aggressively the wrong price for a long time
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Spot on, I've been noticing it more and more over the last few seasons. Some of these outsiders especially in the handicaps that have been priced up at 14s to 25s ante post from January only to go off at 66s or bigger. One of the reasons I don't touch the handicaps until the day these days.

Adele the other week at Southwell telling people 7/1 was a great price about Golden Ace... that was with Con Hill in the betting. Barmy
 
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Brooksie said:
Spot on, I've been noticing it more and more over the last few seasons. Some of these outsiders especially in the handicaps that have been priced up at 14s to 25s ante post from January only to go off at 66s or bigger. One of the reasons I don't touch the handicaps until the day these days.

Adele the other week at Southwell telling people 7/1 was a great price about Golden Ace... that was with Con Hill in the betting. Barmy
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I only really get involved in the handicaps for the flashy stables horses at bigger prices, knowing they’ll shorten. The smaller, less sexy stables always drift, unless a random one is tipped or gambled on.
 
I have small stakes e/w ante post bets on Anzadam and have 3 possible outcomes: nowt; place (super happy); win (orgasmic). Am approaching the race with a degree of stoicism 😁
 
I am shocked ....to be mega happy with Poniros at 66s and 33s all the way down to 20s etc. To see it go to 8/1 and now 16s is NUTS!
With Paul on and lossie out - that would of been 5/1 easy.
 
Brooksie said:
Spot on, I've been noticing it more and more over the last few seasons. Some of these outsiders especially in the handicaps that have been priced up at 14s to 25s ante post from January only to go off at 66s or bigger. One of the reasons I don't touch the handicaps until the day these days.

Adele the other week at Southwell telling people 7/1 was a great price about Golden Ace... that was with Con Hill in the betting. Barmy
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Don't think it was barmy. She was trading at shorter. You don't suddenly bounce a horse out from 6/1-10/1 for no reason. I read Scott's comments a few weeks back and he was bordering on the bullish. Just read his latest and it's a completely different story, almost white flag stuff - we might finish third or fourth. I think something must have happened to spark the negativity. I can see her bombing, and if that does happen, people will be right to ask questions. If you have backed her it's difficult to know what to do for the best, but without knowing it's hard to just bin the bets.
 
kinloch brae said:
Don't think it was barmy. She was trading at shorter. You don't suddenly bounce a horse out from 6/1-10/1 for no reason. I read Scott's comments a few weeks back and he was bordering on the bullish. Just read his latest and it's a completely different story, almost white flag stuff - we might finish third or fourth. I think something must have happened to spark the negativity. I can see her bombing, and if that does happen, people will be right to ask questions. If you have backed her it's difficult to know what to do for the best, but without knowing it's hard to just bin the bets.
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Depends what the antepost overound was i guess

The NRNB markets tend to be very poor across the board

Its market correction. With lossie, the new lion and brighterdaysahead running shes not a 6/1 shot
 
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punterorplonker said:
I am shocked ....to be mega happy with Poniros at 66s and 33s all the way down to 20s etc. To see it go to 8/1 and now 16s is NUTS!
With Paul on and lossie out - that would of been 5/1 easy.
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But it wouldn't make him go any quicker.
 
Odddog said:
I have small stakes e/w ante post bets on Anzadam and have 3 possible outcomes: nowt; place (super happy); win (orgasmic). Am approaching the race with a degree of stoicism 😁
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I have one (larger than I am happy with) docket on him from the summer….on the nose….also hoping for an orgasm. I’m telling you, one day he will put it together and win a good one. This would be of epic proportion though. Gwan paddy!!
 
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FinalFurlong91 said:
Depends what the antepost overound was i guess

The NRNB markets tend to be very poor across the board

Its market correction. With lossie, the new lion and brighterdaysahead running shes not a 6/1 shot
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It's not market correction when the bookmakers are taking on the most solid each-way option in the race. Now as big as 12/1 and going one way. You would think a leg had dropped off. There are big doubts about all three mentioned. You could understand some drift if there wasn't. Hopefully, someone might actually notice tomorrow, but I wouldn't bank on it.
 
kinloch brae said:
It's not market correction when the bookmakers are taking on the most solid each-way option in the race. Now as big as 12/1 and going one way. You would think a leg had dropped off. There are big doubts about all three mentioned. You could understand some drift if there wasn't. Hopefully, someone might actually notice tomorrow, but I wouldn't bank on it.
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Bookmakers have to balance their book, if they are taking no money for her the only thing they can do is lengthen her odds. If you was a bookmaker and all you was doing is laying the first 2-3 in the betting you'd shorten them up right? Something somewhere within the betting has to give. It's not like it's only Golden Ace drifting, just about all of them outside the first three are.
 
kinloch brae said:
Don't think it was barmy. She was trading at shorter. You don't suddenly bounce a horse out from 6/1-10/1 for no reason. I read Scott's comments a few weeks back and he was bordering on the bullish. Just read his latest and it's a completely different story, almost white flag stuff - we might finish third or fourth. I think something must have happened to spark the negativity. I can see her bombing, and if that does happen, people will be right to ask questions. If you have backed her it's difficult to know what to do for the best, but without knowing it's hard to just bin the bets.
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She has been priced wrong for weeks
Common sense tells you that
 
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ALEXEI BABY !!!!!!
 
How do we think the money comes in late?

I'm expecting Lossie to ease a little back out to 7/4 maybe a touch of 15/8. The New Lion to drift and BDA to get played back into 7/2- 3.1 ish. Possibly a bit of late EW money for Golden Ace back in a point or two.
 
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