2025 Ryanair Chase

[Lobos]

Not going to happen Kev.

Willie wants the 12345 in the Gold Cup. It's already been confirmed :biggrin-new:

 

[Rooster Booster]

I don't want to waste time thinking about stuff I hope doesn't happen

But I'm considering being forced to take the 6/4 NRNB about Fact To File before the weekend

If he ends up here, he'll have been beaten, but won't be pushed out, in fact it's going to be a pretty rubbish situation that he's beaten and may even shorten from as tight as 6/4 already is

but



He just wins this doesn't he....

Main danger - Il Est Francais, and they've actively said they'll avoid him

Then it's Gaelic Warrior for the same trainer, and I suppose it'll be a ride Paul Townend needs, but they have met before and FTF murdered GW.

Then Banbridge, who they're already talking about going for the Gold Cup, and even more likely with FTF out of the picture?

El Fabiolo ... doesn't beat FTF over this trip for me ...

Spillane's Tower they probably wouldn't even need to run

Protektorat - fine, technically the one to beat but he just would?

Energumene - again, could be Paul's ride so at least a rival



....but he goes off odds on if he runs doesn't he?

Is 6/4 NRNB value?



I'm trying to ignore all the related doubles and combos .... just as a 'shortie'.... he's mustard isn't he? Makes all. Wins?


I'm thinking about a spacehopper sized bet :semi-twins:

Wouldn’t you back yourself to get a better ROI on that stake if you used it elsewhere? Or are you falling into the trap of needing to try and win every race?

 

[Kevloaf]

Wouldn’t you back yourself to get a better ROI on that stake if you used it elsewhere? Or are you falling into the trap of needing to try and win every race?

This bet wouldn't stop me backing elsewhere though, it's not like if I place this bet I can't place others

I also don't think trying to win every race is a trap ... 'trying' to do that is definitely the aim :highly_amused:


It's more that I don't really play the Ryanair ante post for this exact reason, as you get closer to the time and it just looks obvious

to me, if Fact To File runs, he wins .... so 6/4 looks a really strong bet?

 

[Rooster Booster]

This bet wouldn't stop me backing elsewhere though, it's not like if I place this bet I can't place others

I also don't think trying to win every race is a trap ... 'trying' to do that is definitely the aim :highly_amused:


It's more that I don't really play the Ryanair ante post for this exact reason, as you get closer to the time and it just looks obvious

to me, if Fact To File runs, he wins .... so 6/4 looks a really strong bet?

Well it can be a trap if maximising profit is the aim as every bet we place has an opportunity cost….unless we have an unlimited budget of course. But yes in isolation ignoring opportunity cost I think it’s a sound bet:welcoming:

 

[Kevloaf]

Well it can be a trap if maximising profit is the aim as every bet we place has an opportunity cost….unless we have an unlimited budget of course. But yes in isolation ignoring opportunity cost I think it’s a sound bet:welcoming:

I do almost have an 'unlimited budget' as I use a friends account for the cashout firm, just give him 5% at the end of every festival

and the bet I'm considering will be on that account



Maximising profit as a book builder probably isn't my aim .... guaranteeing it is .... with the odd, hail mary when I've got a strong opinion, and this one is getting quite strong :boxing:




I need talking down ..... I'm thinking of 100 points on :loyal:

 

[Rooster Booster]

I do almost have an 'unlimited budget' as I use a friends account for the cashout firm, just give him 5% at the end of every festival

and the bet I'm considering will be on that account



Maximising profit as a book builder probably isn't my aim .... guaranteeing it is .... with the odd, hail mary when I've got a strong opinion, and this one is getting quite strong :boxing:




I need talking down ..... I'm thinking of 100 points on :loyal:

Understood….if you need talking down you are talking to the wrong person. I tried by giving you a big vote of confidence because I think you’d turn that stake into more money elsewhere as you are one of the best betting strategists I’ve come across. That said I’m not going to stop you being a punter and as bets go I think youve found as good a 6-4 shot as you’ll likely find. Someone else needs to talk you down :biggrin-new:

 

[Rooster Booster]

I do almost have an 'unlimited budget' as I use a friends account for the cashout firm, just give him 5% at the end of every festival

and the bet I'm considering will be on that account



Maximising profit as a book builder probably isn't my aim .... guaranteeing it is .... with the odd, hail mary when I've got a strong opinion, and this one is getting quite strong :boxing:




I need talking down ..... I'm thinking of 100 points on :loyal:

Btw I should clarify …by maximising profit I meant within the system you operate not more broadly. We all need our sweet treats and this feels like you treating yourself but going for the 30% less fat version. No doubt a welcome departure from healthy snacks nevertheless .

 

[Kevloaf]

haha yeah I get what you mean

I could play the ante post, GDC this weekend and FTF related double at 5.75/1

BUT

I'm backing against what I want to happen then



Maybe I'm over compensating for being 'wrong' in my opinion that FTF should go Gold Cup regardless of this weekend

I've had a few beers now as well so won't back until the morning but it's not easy :glee:

 

[Craigy14]

As much as sentiment may come into it, re Fact To File going Gold Cup, if Galopin tucks him away, with FTF using different tactics, I don’t see how they try plan C to reverse the form at Cheltenham.

As far as I know JP likes Cheltenham winners as much as WPM (probably reason he’s sent a load more over last couple years to Closutton).

For that reason, if FTF is beat this weekend without getting too close to Galopin I can see them going Ryanair. Unfortunately the festival allows it to happen and if JP wants winners FTF is going off odds on in a Ryanair no question about it and is the most likely winner imo.

 

[Kevloaf]

Trigger pulled

 

[Mighty]

Fact To File to finish 2nd in the Irish Gold Cup & win the Ryanair Chase 8/1 PP special

 

[Lobos]

Fact To File to finish 2nd in the Irish Gold Cup & win the Ryanair Chase 8/1 PP special

Very, very tempting

 

[AnFiieLD.]

Fact to File has to be a certainty to come here after that you'd think. Hard to envisage any way he can beat GDC, especially over the extended Gold Cup trip. Outstayed by Grangeclare West there

 

[Lobos]

Fact to File has to be a certainty to come here after that you'd think. Hard to envisage any way he can beat GDC, especially over the extended Gold Cup trip. Outstayed by Grangeclare West there

Certainty and Think....

 

[That Horse]

In case F2F still goes Gold Cup, Grangeclare West available at 20s nrnb for the Ryanair

Edit - GCW also 25s in some places for the Gold Cup, maybe worth a saver in case anything happens to Galopin between now and March

 

[Runragged]

I thought Embassy Gardens travelled and jumped well for a long way considering the quicker ground would of been against him. Races prominently which is what you want in a Ryanair, he would have a chance at 20/1 also.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Could well be a very deep race this
Can see a few possible GC runners thinking Sod taking on GDC!!
Just have to stay so strong to match him, and not sure many are up to it.
Hrs already destroyed the last two runners up who tried, it seems!!

 

[Benjy23]

Not sure how much you'd get on but Hills have 7/4 NRNB about Fact to File.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Willie Mullins on EL FABIOLO:
“It was disappointing that he came down the other day, but he’s in the Champion Chase and the Ryanair and my feeling is that he should go up in trip for the Ryanair.

"That’s where I’ll be aiming for and I’ll see if Simon and Isaac agree with that.”

Courtesy of Irishracing

 

[Kevloaf]

Willie Mullins on EL FABIOLO:
“It was disappointing that he came down the other day, but he’s in the Champion Chase and the Ryanair and my feeling is that he should go up in trip for the Ryanair.

"That’s where I’ll be aiming for and I’ll see if Simon and Isaac agree with that.”

Courtesy of Irishracing

Lovely, double figures 14/1 ew still there

or 11/1 NRNB

I think he goes off single figures with Paul abreast.