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2025 Antepost flat racing

HoldenTheReins

HoldenTheReins

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I thought I'd put something together whilst the jump season is going on as I follow both.

2000 Guineas best prices as of 08/12/2024

6/1 - The Lion In Winter
10/1 - Shadow Of Light
14/1 - Expanded
16/1 - Ruling Court
16/1 - Scorthy Champ
16/1 - Twain
20/1 - Ancient Truth
20/1 - Anniversary
20/1 - Bowmark
20/1 - Cadogan
20/1 - Cosmic Year
20/1 - Kingofhighseas
25/1 - Bar

1000 Guineas best prices as of 08/12/2024

3/1 - Lake Victoria
4/1 - Desert Flower
8/1 - Fairy Godmother
16/1 - Lovelycut
16/1 - Verse Of Love
20/1 - Angeal
20/1 - Cape Primrose
20/1 - Participle
20/1 - Red Letter
25/1 - Bar

Epsom Oaks best prices as of 08/12/2024

10/1 - Lake Victoria
12/1 - Desert Flower
20/1 - Cape Primrose
20/1 - Fairy Godmother
20/1 - Falling Snow
20/1 - Red Letter
20/1 - Verse Of Love
20/1 - Zarigana
25/1 - Bar

Epsom Derby best prices as of 08/12/2024

6/1 - The Lion In Winter
20/1 - Twain
25/1 - Ruling Court
33/1 - Acapulco Bay
33/1 - Delacroix
33/1 - Expoanded
33/1 - Pride Of Arras
40/1 - Bar

10 year history of the English Classics:

2000 Guineas:
YearHorseTrainerHow many runs at 2yoTop RPR at a 2yoHow many runs at 3yo before guineasTop RPR before guineasWinning RPR
2024Notable SpeechCharlie Appleby003113123
2023ChaldeanAndrew Balding511810120
2022CoroebusCharlie Appleby311600123
2021Poetic FlareJim Bolger31101107120
2020KamekoAndrew Balding411700121
2019Saxon WarriorAidan O'Brien311900122
2018Magna GreciaAidan O'Brien311400121
2017ChurchillAidan O'Brien612100122
2016Galileo GoldHugo Palmer511000121
2015GleneaglesAidan O'Brien711600124
2014Night Of ThunderRichard Hannon21141111124
AverageAverageAverageAverageAverage
3.7272727271050.545454545530.09090909121.9090909
Average Excluding NSAverage Excluding NS
4.1115.5
​
1000 Guineas:
YearHorseTrainerHow many runs at 2yoTop RPR at a 2yoHow many runs at 3yo before guineasTop RPR before guineasWinning RPR
2024ElmakaRoger Varian1841103113
2023MawjSaeed bin Suroor51082111118
2022CachetGeorge Boughey81061111114
2021Mother EarthAidan O'Brien911100113
2020LoveAidan O'Brien711100116
2019HermosaAidan O'Brien711000113
2018Billesdon BrookRichard Hannon9100194116
2017WinterAidan O'Brien3821109117
2016MindingAidan O'Brien511900121
2015LegatissimoDavid Wachman31002111117
2014Miss FranceAndre Fabre31141104111
AverageAverageAverageAverageAverage
5.454545455104.09090910.818181818267.54545455115.3636364
​
Epsom Oaks:
YearHorseTrainerHow many runs at 2yoTop RPR at a 2yoHow many runs at 3yo before OaksTop RPR before Oaks at 3yoWinning RPR
2024EzeliyaDermot Weld2801103115
2023Soul SisterJohn & Thady Gosden1862115116
2022TuesdayAidan O'Brien1913109117
2021SnowfallAidan O'Brien7921109121
2020LoveAidan O'Brien71111116122
2019AnapurnaAidan O'Brien1412103113
2018Forever TogetherAidan O'Brien275197117
2017EnableJohn Gosden1832111123
2016MindingAidan O'Brien51192121118
2015QualifyAidan O'Brien7105298116
2014TaghroodaJohn Gosden1851105118
AverageAverageAverageAverageAverage
3.181818182881.636363636107.9090909117.8181818
​
Epsom Derby:
YearHorseTrainerHow many runs at 2yoTop RPR at a 2yoHow many runs at 3yo before DerbyTop RPR before Derby at 3yoWinning RPR
2024City Of TroyAidan O'Brien3123184125
2023Auguste RodinAidan O'Brien4118168124
2022Desert CrownSir Michael Stoute1941120125
2021AdayarCharlie Appleby2972112124
2020SerpentineAidan O'Brien1542100121
2019Anthony Van DyckAidan O'Brien71191108119
2018MasarCharlie Appleby51133118122
2017Wings of EaglesAidan O'Brien41001106121
2016HarzandDermot Weld1712118124
2015Golden HornJohn Gosden1862123127
2014AustraliaAidan O'Brien31181122125
AverageAverageAverageAverageAverage
2.90909090999.363636361.545454545107.1818182123.3636364
​
​
 
Last edited:
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I've collected a load of horses through the year into a spreadsheet for the benefit of my bad memory.

If there's ones I'm missing from the list people let me know and I'll get them added.

Colts:
HorseTrainerColt or FillyFoaledSireSire ORSire DistanceDamDam ORDam DistanceDam's sireRaced at 2?How many runs at 2?Best RPR at 2yo
Shadow Of LightCharlie ApplebyColt19/02/2022Lope De Vega1121mWinters Moon991mNew ApproachYes5117
HotazhellJessica HarringtonColt31/03/2022Too Darn Hot1217fAzenzar726fDanehill DancerYes6116
The Lion In WinterAidan O'BrienColt31/01/2022Sea The Stars1361m2fWhat A Home941m4fLope De VegaYes2116
DelacroixAidan O'BrienColt02/04/2022Dubawi1231mTepin1221m½fBernsteinYes5116
ExpandedAidan O'BrienColt08/03/2022Wootton Bassett1107fJigsaw581m2fGalileoYes2114
Henri MatisseAidan O'BrienColt21/03/2022Wootton Bassett1107fImportal Verse1151mPivitalYes6114
Ancient TruthCharlie ApplebyColt14/04/2022Dubawi1231mBeyond Reason987fAustraliaYes3113
Magnum ForceGer LyonsColt01/04/2022Mehmas1156fTropical Rock826fFastnet RockYes5113
RashabarBrian MeehanColt28/01/2022Holy Roman Emperor1227fAmazonkaUnracedUnracedCamelotYes5112
Scorthy ChampJoseph O'BrienColt09/05/2022Mehmas1156fFidaaha521m1½fNew ApproachYes3112
TwainAidan O'BrienColt12/05/2022Wootton Bassett1107fWading1097fMontjeuYes2112
Aomori CityCharlie ApplebyColt07/02/2022Oasis Dream1256fSetsukoUnracedUnracedSharmardalYes5112
Arizona BlazeAndrian MurrayColt04/03/2022Sergei Prokofiev1046fLiberisque521m2fEquianoYes9111
WhistlejacketAidan O'BrienColt02/04/2022No Nay Never1146½fAdventure Seeker1001m2fBeringYes8111
Seagulls ElevenHugo PalmerColt29/03/2022Galileo Gold1201mThrilled666fKodiacYes6110
Wimbledon HawkeyeJames OwenColt24/02/2022Kameko1221mEva Maria891m2fSea The StarsYes5110
New CenturyAndrew BaldingColt21/02/2022Kameko1221mPotent Embrace841m2½fStreet CryYes6109
Cool Hoof LukeAndrew BaldingColt29/03/2022Advertise1196fDutch MonumentUnrated6fDutch ArtYes4108
Field Of GoldJohn & Thady GosdenColt03/03/2022Kingman1261mPrincess De Lune907fSharmardalYes4107
Ides Of MarchAidan O'BrienColt27/04/2022Wootton Bassett1107fNickname1101mScat DaddyYes5107
Al QudraCharlie ApplebyColt21/02/2022No Nay Never1146½fPiece Of Paradise935fHoly Roman EmperorYes7107
StarzintheireyesRalph BeckettColt21/02/2022Starspangledbanner1086fCrystal Hope941m2fNathanielYes3107
Royal PlaywrightAndrew BaldingColt30/03/2022Lope De Vega1121mArabian Queen1111m2½fDubawiYes4106
Maranoa CharlieChristopher HeadColt03/04/2022Wootton Bassett1107fKoubalibre701mGalileoYes4106
Powerful GloryRichard FaheyColt04/02/2022Cotai Glory1095fWouldntitbelovelyUnratedUnknownKodiacYes2106
Ruling CourtCharlie ApplebyColt08/02/2022Justify1251m2fInchargeofme1071mHigh ChaparralYes2106
ShareholderKarl BurkeColt10/04/2022Not This Time1151mCloudy DancerUnracedUnracedInvincible SpiritYes4104
Green ImpactJessica HarringtonColt18/01/2022Wootton Bassett1107fEmerald Green681m5½fGalileoYes3104
DetainJohn & Thady GosdenColt04/02/2022Wootton Bassett1107fNisriynaUnracedUnracedIntikhabYes3103
Puppet MasterAidan O'BrienColt06/02/2022Camelot1181m4fRealtra1051mDark AngelYes3102
CowardofthecountryJoseph O'BrienColt15/03/2022Kodi Bear1101mHawaajibUnracedUnracedElusive CityYes6101
Matauri BayRalph BeckettColt05/05/2022Lope De Vega1121mMatauri Pearl751m1fHurricane RunYes3101
Treasure IsleAidan O'BrienColt24/03/2022No Nay Never1146½fNewton's Night751m1½fGalileoYes8100
AftermathAidan O'BrienColt17/05/2022Justify1251m2fFlying531mGalileoYes3100
Cosmic YearHarry CharltonColt23/02/2022Kingman1261mPassage Of Time1151m4fDansiliYes199
Anno DominiCharlie ApplebyColt11/03/2022Dubawi1231mAlegra851m3½fGalileoYes399
CentigradeRalph BeckettColt14/02/2022Too Darn Hot1217fTurko Beach551m2fHard SpunYes299
Rock Of CashelAidan O'BrienColt25/01/2022Wootton Bassett1107fBest in the World1081m4fGalileoYes597
ChancellorJohn & Thady GosdenColt17/02/2022Kingman1261mQueen's Trust1151m4fDansiliYes397
Midnight ThunderSaeed bin SuroorColt22/02/2022Kodiac1096½fSilk Words716½fDubawiYes496
NightwalkerMichael StouteColt13/04/2022Frankel1401m2½fSleep Walk845½fOasis DreamYes396
HazdannDermot WeldColt07/04/2022Night Of Thunder1191mHazmiyra887fPivotalYes293
Acapulco BayAidan O'BrienColt22/02/2022Dubawi1231mJe Ne Regretterien741m4fGalileoYes293
Defence MinisterHamad Al JehaniColt07/05/2022Too Darn Hot1217fTears Of The Sun971m2fMastercraftsmanYes393
SurpassAidan O'BrienColt10/02/2022Saxon Warrior1211m2fBlending821mMediceanYes392
JonquilMichael StouteColt17/03/2022Lope De Vega1121mJovial977fDubawiYes292
ScandinaviaAidan O'BrienColt09/05/2022Justify1251m2fFabulousUnracedUnracedGalileoYes391
GenealogyAidan O'BrienColt16/02/2022Wootton Bassett1107fMusical Art841mDutch ArtYes391
OfficerAidan O'BrienColt18/03/2022Dubawi1231mHydrangea1071m4fGalileoYes190
ScandaloM Delcher SanchezColt08/03/2022Siyouni1181mPassing ParadeUnracedUnracedCape CrossYes390
GalvestonAidan O'BrienColt02/04/2022Frankel1401m2½fBizzarriaUnrated1mLemon Drop KidYes289
VecuJohn & Thady GosdenColt03/03/2022Churchill1231mJazz Cat627fTamayuzYes388
Storm PieceGer LyonsColt15/04/2022Night Of Thunder1191mTimepiece1141m2fZamindarYes388
Pride Of ArrasRalph BeckettColt25/02/2022New Bay1181m4fParnell's Dream771m5fOasis DreamYes187
Secret TheoryCharlie ApplebyColt19/03/2022Dubawi1231mMistrusting1056fSharmardalYes186
SaratogaAidan O'BrienColt09/02/2022Camelot1181m4fDialafara731m4fAnabaaYes184
Mississippi RiverAidan O'BrienColt22/03/2022Lope De Vega1121mCursory Glance1127fDistorted HumorYes384
CadoganJoseph O'BrienColt25/03/2022Farhh1241m2fWadjetUnracedUnracedSharmardalYes283
ByblosJohn & Thady GosdenColt19/02/2022Frankel1401m2½fBird Flown811mOasis DreamYes383
TycoonJohn & Thady GosdenColt10/04/2022Kingman1261mBufera881mKing's BestYes181
ValedictoryJohn & Thady GosdenColt29/03/2022Cracksman1301m2fValiant Girl861m1fLemon Drop KidYes181
SeattleAidan O'BrienColt10/05/2022Siyouni1181mHourglassUnrated1m1fGalileoYes167
​

Filly's:
HorseTrainerColt or FillyFoaledSireSire ORSire DistanceDamDam ORDam DistanceDam's sireRaced at 2?How many runs at 2?Best RPR at 2yo
Lake VictoriaAidan O'BrienFilly22/03/2022Frankel1401m2½fQuiet Reflection1156fShowcastingYes5116
Desert FlowerCharlie ApplebyFilly05/03/2022Night Of Thunder1191mPromising Run1027fHard SpunYes4115
BaboucheGer LyonsFilly06/05/2022Kodiac1096½fPavlosk1001mArchYes4111
ZariganaF-H GraffardFilly30/01/2022Siyouni1181mZarkamiya1011m4fFrankelYes3110
Fairy GodmotherAidan O'BrienFilly05/03/2022Night Of Thunder1191mScintilating876fSiyouniYes3109
Bedtime StoryAidan O'BrienFilly05/05/2022Frankel1401m2½fMecca's Angel1225fDark AngelYes6108
SimmeringOllie SangsterFilly21/02/2022Too Darn Hot1217fCashla Bay777fFastnet RockYes6106
Red LetterGer LyonsFilly08/02/2022Frankel1401m2½fRed Impression916fDark AngelYes3105
BubblingAidan O'BrienFilly12/05/2022No Nay Never1146½fLumiere Noire1016½fDashing BladeYes4104
CathedralRalph BeckettFilly11/04/2022Too Darn Hot1217fWar And PeaceUnracedUnracedFrankelYes2104
JanuaryAidan O'BrienFilly10/04/2022Kingman1261mI Can Fly1111mFastnet RockYes6102
TabitiRalph BeckettFilly26/03/2022Kingman1261mLilyfire837fFirst DefenceYes3101
Ballet SlippersAidan O'BrienFilly09/04/2022Dubawi1231mMagical1221m2fGalileoYes4101
DreamyAidan O'BrienFilly25/04/2022American Pharoah1341m2fTapestry1121m4fGalileoYes3100
SandtrapRalph BeckettFilly15/05/2022Lope De Vega1121mZindaya1101mMore Than ReadyYes298
Mountain BreezeCharlie ApplebyFilly01/05/2022Lope De Vega1121mLava Flow801m3fDalakhaniYes697
First InstinctWilliam HaggasFilly20/02/2022Bated Breath1176fProportional1011mBeat HollowYes396
EcstaticAidan O'BrienFilly25/01/2022Lord Kanaloa1296fMagic Wand1151m2fGalileoYes494
SmokenRalph BeckettFilly01/02/2022Too Darn Hot1217fMiss Marjurie1001m4fMarjuYes294
GiselleAidan O'BrienFilly04/04/2022Frankel1401m2½fNewspaperofrecord1151mLope De VegaYes392
Magical TrailCharlie ApplebyFilly23/04/2022Blue Point1245fSense Of Fun671mDistorted HumorYes392
Falling SnowDonnacha O'BrienFilly21/04/2022Justify1251m2fWinter1191mGalileoYes190
Anna SwanMichael StouteFilly07/02/2022Almanzor1291m2Vivionn1021m6fDubawiYes388
FormalMichael StouteFilly04/02/2022Dubawi1231mVeracious1101mFrankelYes387
Trad JazzJames OwenFilly12/04/2022Sea The Moon1221m4fKirstenbosch1001m4fMount NelsonYes186
ElwateenSaeed bin SuroorFilly19/02/2022Dubawi1231mTawkeel1151m2fTeofiloYes185
OrchidGeorge BougheyFilly18/02/2022Blue Point1245fDalkova971m½fGalileoYes385
RevoirRalph BeckettFilly27/04/2022Study Of Man1151m4fRegardez1051m2½fChamps ElyseesYes183
SafiaF ChappetFilly15/02/2022Sottsass1231m2fStay HomeUnracedUnracedLe HavreYes183
TakemetothemoonAidan O'BrienFilly06/03/2022Uncle Mo1231mTogether Forever1091mGalileoYes282
Lucky GiftCharlie ApplebyFilly30/01/2022Dubawi1231mRaffle Prize1146fSlade PowerYes479
Hala BlueI MohammedFilly18/03/2022Blue Point1245fHoly Cat876fKitten's JoyYes279
Queen Of ThievesJohn & Thady GosdenFilly07/03/2022Frankel1401m2½fRhadegunda951m1fPivotalYes175
Warm SummerSaeed bin SuroorFilly27/04/2022Blue Point1245fAdoringlyUnracedUnracedDubawiYes169
Tea RoseAidan O'BrienFilly11/04/2022Frankel1401m2½fMarsha1195fAcclamationYes167
​
 
Last edited:
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Know next to nothing about Aussie racing, but how is Dubai honour 11/4 for the tancred, surely he'll go off near even money?
 
Been money for Desert Flower on BEX and movement on Oddschecker largely down to Lake Victoria being friendless.

The same for Ancient Truth also for the 2000, he's been put up a few places.

Godolphin have Shadow Of Light, Ancient Truth, Opera Ballo and Ruling Court.

The latter I reckon will go Dante and then Derby route seeing as he's their only entry in it.

Will be interesting who Buick picks of the other 3 if they all go.

Aidan's Expanded and Fairy Godmother have been backed for the 2000 and 1000 probably being his main darts if the market is correct.
 
Completely forgot we had a flat racing area.
Anyone in here into dosage ?
I'm all in The Lion in Winter for both Guineas and Derby at nice prices and being an early foal (31st Jan) he would have a maturity advantage over several of his generation...
 
Istabraq said:
Completely forgot we had a flat racing area.
Anyone in here into dosage ?
I'm all in The Lion in Winter for both Guineas and Derby at nice prices and being an early foal (31st Jan) he would have a maturity advantage over several of his generation...
Click to expand...

I've only recently heard of it, is it to do with stride?

I'm not sure where to see that data either.

TLIW is bred for the Derby and Arc trip isn't he, a bonus he was winning over shorter distances at 2yo.
 
HoldenTheReins said:
I've only recently heard of it, is it to do with stride?

I'm not sure where to see that data either.

TLIW is bred for the Derby and Arc trip isn't he, a bonus he was winning over shorter distances at 2yo.
Click to expand...

It's a calculation given to horses based on breeding, generally used to calculate whether a step up in distance will suit which for the Derby is crucial because so few horses will have tried the trip.

The other thing people often forget is that Derby (and Oaks) horses have to travel fully 12f to the start before the race as there's no cut through across Epsom Downs, obviously they're not going at racing pace but the preliminaries, proximity of large crowds all in warm temperatures followed by cantering the entire course in reverse has to take its' toll on suspect stayers...
 
Istabraq said:
It's a calculation given to horses based on breeding, generally used to calculate whether a step up in distance will suit which for the Derby is crucial because so few horses will have tried the trip.

The other thing people often forget is that Derby (and Oaks) horses have to travel fully 12f to the start before the race as there's no cut through across Epsom Downs, obviously they're not going at racing pace but the preliminaries, proximity of large crowds all in warm temperatures followed by cantering the entire course in reverse has to take its' toll on suspect stayers...
Click to expand...

Interesting stuff, is this a calculation you do yourself or is it on a particular site?
 
HoldenTheReins said:
Interesting stuff, is this a calculation you do yourself or is it on a particular site?
Click to expand...

Not at all, it's a scientific calculation been around years.
Dosage Index, I'm sure there's plenty via google that can be found, I've never looked to understand how the calculations are made but there's some fairly strong evidence to support likely winners...
 
Istabraq said:
Not at all, it's a scientific calculation been around years.
Dosage Index, I'm sure there's plenty via google that can be found, I've never looked to understand how the calculations are made but there's some fairly strong evidence to support likely winners...
Click to expand...

I'll have to take a look into it at some point. Maybe a calculation that can be added to a spreadsheet.

Anything else you're on antepost wise?
 
HoldenTheReins said:
I'll have to take a look into it at some point. Maybe a calculation that can be added to a spreadsheet.

Anything else you're on antepost wise?
Click to expand...

No, I'm not a huge flat fan, my interest was rekindled a few years ago by virtue of the fact I spend Saturdays in the pub watching so get involved.
Saxon Warrior is responsible for my The Lion in Winter interest, as FJs RPR guru he picked this up immediately after debut...
 
About time we end up with some big winners on this thread after hitting the bar so many times with Sierra Leone last year upon a load of others which we got value on and havent won, hopefully good cheer breaks that streak happy to be on double figures
 
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