2024 Triumph Hurdle (Juveniles)

[DenmanSacre]

How many 4 year olds thrive in open company?

He's seen a race track 3 times, even Defi who raced 6 tjmes
struggled his 5 year old season. I think more will follow Mullins plan with Lossie and have a quiet season and I think long term for the horse it's the best thing. Even Espoir D'allen when he won the CH only really raced against horses his own age in his second season before his CH win.

Novice hurdlers seem to be trending towards being 6 at the festival not 5 so you're putting him in against horses that are 2 years further down their development even in a beginners chase (for example). And I would disagree that the Arkle is wide open, it's more than reasonable to expect to see Slade Steel there and his form is as solid as they come.

I think the quiet season is a load of rubbish for the French bred horses. Mullins only gave Lossiemouth a reduced season as he wanted to keep her, State Man and IEP away from each other early on. Her not running in November/December hasn't enabled her to win the Mares Hurdle. She's just a very smart mare and ahead of that class of mares.

​​​​​​Lossiemouth ran 6 times as a juvenile hurdler. If she needs a quiet 4 to 5 year old season to mature, why did he run her so much as a 3/4 year old. Surely it's contradictory that you can run so much in that season but then need a quiet season to mature.

Slade Steel is a below par Supreme winner - if Henry says SS is being aimed at the Arkle, that won't have any impact on any other horse wanting to target the Arkle.

The novice hurdles have always trended towards 6 year olds - in the Supreme and Ballymore, there's been 8 6 year old winners in the Ballymore in the last 10 years (1 5 year old and 1 7 year old in the same period winning it) and the Supreme has 6 6 year old winners in the last 10 years (3 5 year olds and 1 7 year old). It usually takes an exceptional 5 year old to win either race - Constitution Hill, Impaire et Passe, Douvan, Klassical Dream. Notably 3 of them are French bred and the other is arguably the best hurdler we have seen.

If Sir Gino was a year older and in that Supreme field, I have no doubt he would be more than good enough to beat Slade Steel. He probably would have been good enough this year tbh with the age allowance. If he jumps a fence well, then he's just a better horse than Slade Steel.

As for busy 3/4 and 4/5 year old seasons, we have ample evidence for the following French bred horses that it caused no issues:

Kauto Star
Long Run
Master Minded
Theleme
Hermes Baie
De Bon Couer
A Plus Tard
Klassical Dream
Protektorat
Frodon
Pic D'Orhy
L'Autonomie

​​​​​​
This thing of not campaigning horses in many races has creeped in over the last few years and it's a massive detriment to the sport. It did none of the old greats any harm running 6 or more times a season. How many top National Hunt horses do we see do that any more.

With Sir Gino, he was precocious enough to win a 3 year hurdle in March of his 3 year old season. He could easily be a horse that reaches his peak early and declines earlier. Why waste it when the UK season doesn't reward 4 to 5 year olds staying hurdling. If there was more of a programme for them staying in their age group then I wouldn't have an issue.

If he did stay hurdling, I'd like to see him go to Aintree in April, then Auteuil for the grade 1, a prep race in October then the grade 1 at Auteuil in November. Give him a couple of months off, go to the International Hurdle at Cheltenham then the Champion Hurdle. That would be a great campaign. What Henderson will do is take him to the races that Constitution Hill won't run in - races like the Kingwell etc. Naff races in an uninspiring campaign.

 

[Hurricane fly]

I wouldn't disagree with the way that Henderson campaigns horses now is uninspired, but that would remain a wider issue about the racing calendar that allows him to do so.

However, I think that the gap between Juveniles and novices/open company is often understated. I don't think it's any different to humans stepping up from youth to adult sports, it typically takes time to adapt and catch up.

It's not that great a comparison but Lossie winning the International was 2 seconds quicker than Sir Ginos last win on the same day. They both won very easy on the bridle, but that equates to 10 lengths, and she would have a further 2lb pull at the weights as he will need to step up to carrying max weight and give away 7lbs not 5lb.

So before we even get to the boy superstars he has 12 lengths to find and that's before we know what he actually finds under pressure. I hope we do see him again this year and against some of the Irish horses so we can better ascertain his real level.


Our Conor routed the field at Cheltenham and was competitive the season after but currently all we know is that SG is significantly better than the English but who isn't? If you took the Irish out of the race then Salver just won the Triumph by 30 lengths. Milan Tino didn't live up to expectation in the Boodles which would have strengthen SGs form significantly.

 

[Garrison Savannah]

If Sir Gino was a year older and in that Supreme field, I have no doubt he would be more than good enough to beat Slade Steel. He probably would have been good enough this year tbh with the age allowance. If he jumps a fence well, then he's just a better horse than Slade Steel.

On what evidence is this based?

A beating of Burdett Road & Royal Way ?

 

[DenmanSacre]

I wouldn't disagree with the way that Henderson campaigns horses now is uninspired, but that would remain a wider issue about the racing calendar that allows him to do so.

However, I think that the gap between Juveniles and novices/open company is often understated. I don't think it's any different to humans stepping up from youth to adult sports, it typically takes time to adapt and catch up.

It's not that great a comparison but Lossie winning the International was 2 seconds quicker than Sir Ginos last win on the same day. They both won very easy on the bridle, but that equates to 10 lengths, and she would have a further 2lb pull at the weights as he will need to step up to carrying max weight and give away 7lbs not 5lb.

So before we even get to the boy superstars he has 12 lengths to find and that's before we know what he actually finds under pressure. I hope we do see him again this year and against some of the Irish horses so we can better ascertain his real level.


Our Conor routed the field at Cheltenham and was competitive the season after but currently all we know is that SG is significantly better than the English but who isn't? If you took the Irish out of the race then Salver just won the Triumph by 30 lengths. Milan Tino didn't live up to expectation in the Boodles which would have strengthen SGs form significantly.

Sir Gino had an overall quicker time than Lossiemouth on Trials day according to RP, Sporting life and ATR by nearly 2 seconds? Overall times are pretty meaningless anyway.

Our Conor was taking on Hurricane Fly. Sir Gino would be taking on a poor set of novice hurdlers outside of Ballyburn going over fences so it's worlds apart on what they'd be facing in their 4 to 5 year old season. The biggest challenge he would face is Impaire et Passe, who is obviously a very good mid 160s hurdler and could be too much for Sir Gino. But they could feasibly be aimed at different races at Cheltenham over fences anyway.

It can be a big step up from the juvenile season to the next season in open age company but there's examples of many horses that have took it in stride. We will have to wait and see how he gets on next season but he's a horse I'll be looking forward to seeing next season while the flat season is on.

 

[DenmanSacre]

On what evidence is this based?

A beating of Burdett Road & Royal Way ?

Eye test.

Ratings.

To me, Sir Gino is a very very good juvenile. Slade Steel would be 3rd or worse in most Supremes.

Slade Steel doesn't exactly have a great resume of horses beaten.

 

[That Horse]

"If you're old enough, you're good enough"

Mike Bassett, former England manager