Allaho's performance on Sunday needs comparing to his previous pre-Festival runs and not his Ryanair wins. I think that was better than his Thurles prep against Elimay before his first Ryanair win, and around 7-8lbs below his prep for his second Ryanair. Mullins had him fit but he wasn't going to have him absolutely cherry ripe for that. It's all about one day, and if he'll find another 6 or 7lbs of improvement for March. I think he'll get 171 or 172 yesterday. People are saying Stattler gave him a race and it pulls the form down. But he didn't give him a race did he. He beat Stattler 13 lengths untroubled. Stattler is a decent horse in his own right. It's not hard to make a case for Stattler running to 158-159. Plus, outside of Galopin nobody has put Appreciate It away like that. And French Dynamite is a solid enough horse and he was beaten over 100 lengths. Essentially Allaho dod what he does, he gallops half a stride quicker than is comfortable for his rivals, and they all fall away one by one.
The question if where does that put him compared to what the others main contenders have the potential to be. My view is he's still capable of putting in a mid-170's RPR equivalent performance, so that's the bar Banbridge, Stage Star, or Envoi Allen have to beat. Envoi Allen as the most exposed of them has never hit 170 on my ratings, so he's the least likely to beat Allaho, and he's the first I will pass on. I think if he places, it's because Banbridge doesn't run or one of them makes a bad mistake.
Banbridge and Stage Star however, only need to find 7 and 6lbs respectively on my ratings. They're considerably less exposed than Envoi Allen, and go into this race with a baseline rating that Envoi Allen hasn't hit in 16 chases.
It's then interesting to compare the lead-ins of those two compared to Allaho at the same stage of his novice Chase season. On RPR's Allaho hit 166 in the prep for his first Ryanair win, which was on his 6th chase outing. He then improved 13lbs to hit a 179 when winning first time.
By comparison:
Stage Star 170 - 7 chases (pulled up in the 8th, his final prep)
Banbridge 169 - 6 chases
So both are ahead at the same point in their careers.
Stage Star had the worst possible prep pulling muscles. He's got a gap to bridge recovering from injury, and that's not the profile you want going into a race like this. I think however he has a run style that could trouble Allaho. He may not allow Allaho an uncontested lead which is surely their best chance, so they have to take him head on. There's got to be scope for him to improve his mark in this company, but his interrupted prep bothers me though. And these races are often won and lost by fine margins.
Banbridge despite being a pound behind Stage Star right now has the more progressive profile, and it felt to me as though there was a lot more to come after his seasonal debut at Kempton. His jumping will be sharper, and he'll come on for the race. But can Banbridge hit 177 I think he'll need to if he gets his ground? He's close enough now to think that very possible, with improvement highly likely anyway, and more to come from meeting this quality of field. The ground is obviously an unknown, but I do believe he has the potential to make up the gap he needs to. He's close enough already, plus I also think he may benefit from the way the race will be run, with the front two not getting an uncontested lead by taking each other on. That said, he can't allow them to get too far away from him.
So here's my prediction. Lightening will strike twice not three times for Allaho. This race won't be his third Ryanair win, it'll be his second Festival heartbreaker. I see Stage Star as his Minella Indo, and Banbridge as his Champ! Assuming good to soft ground or similar, I'd marginally say Banbridge wins staying on up the hill to beat Allaho and Stage Star in a Festival thriller.
