2024 Ryanair Chase

[Carnage at Taunton]

Jonbon will go to Queen mum. He’ll be unbeaten, including Clarence House and off to chelts with a good chance. Only doubt would have been energumene beating him at ascot. Well that ain’t gonna happen now.

Yeah
Hes the 2nd best at 2m around.
Who knows what improvement both he and EF will find this season. It’s possible one might find more than the other.
Trainer has said he starts off in the Tingle Creek.
Win that and he stays at 2 m imo.
Maybe as the season progresses he may step
him up, but right now he’s a 2 miler and a good one.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Either here or 2m4f at Aintree. Provided El Fabulous stays sound I can’t see JP’s team wanting to follow him around for scraps in the CC. He was taken off his feet by Calico at Warwick last year after all. He’s crying out for the mid distance imo.

Aintree more likely imo.
Unless he struggles at 2m this season.
Ive never taken the race with Calico too seriously, if that’s his form he’s not an Arkle runner up and he’s not winning at Aintree and Sandown either imo.

 

[billymag]

Not sure if mentioned on here but Edwardstone is being stepped up, could see him trying the King George which at 50/1 isnt the craziest bet to place (50/1 is win price). I could see him turning up here in the Ryanair if as is likely hes beaten in the KG. 20/1 looks just a touch skinny without an entry yet but think i could be tempted with an entry to show his well being.

 

[charlie]

Yeah
Hes the 2nd best at 2m around.
Who knows what improvement both he and EF will find this season. It’s possible one might find more than the other.
Trainer has said he starts off in the Tingle Creek.
Win that and he stays at 2 m imo.
Maybe as the season progresses he may step
him up, but right now he’s a 2 miler and a good one.

In case others haven't seen what Nicky said his exact words were:

'I'll be amazed if that at some stage we don't look at 2 and half miles but at the moment we'll probably start in the Tingle Creek'.

So Nicky is saying it's highly likely he'll step up and probably go TC, which you've taken as he's definitely going TC and will stay at 2m? What does winning the TC even mean vs the dross we have here? Jonbons participation here hangs in the balance and depends entirely now on El Fabiolo, who looks fundamentally the much better animal.

There is more meat on the bone re Jonbon going up and not just the interview last week. Last month Nicky said:

'I think all of us put our heads together and thought well he just needs two and half now, he's by Walk In The Park, won his PTP, and looks as if he needed further so the idea was to go to Aintree over two and half but when we did the entries it was entries it was blatantly obvious that the 2m novice chase was far easier than the two and half mile novice chase'

He will probably start over 2m because the TC is a winnable valuable G1, but it's impossible to conclude he will remain at 2m based on what the trainer is saying.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

In case others haven't seen what Nicky said his exact words were:

'I'll be amazed if that at some stage we don't look at 2 and half miles but at the moment we'll probably start in the Tingle Creek'.

So Nicky is saying it's highly likely he'll step up and probably go TC, which you've taken as he's definitely going TC and will stay at 2m? What does winning the TC even mean vs the dross we have here? Jonbons participation here hangs in the balance and depends entirely now on El Fabiolo, who looks fundamentally the much better animal.

There is more meat on the bone re Jonbon going up and not just the interview last week. Last month Nicky said:

'I think all of us put our heads together and thought well he just needs two and half now, he's by Walk In The Park, won his PTP, and looks as if he needed further so the idea was to go to Aintree over two and half but when we did the entries it was entries it was blatantly obvious that the 2m novice chase was far easier than the two and half mile novice chase'

He will probably start over 2m because the TC is a winnable valuable G1, but it's impossible to conclude he will remain at 2m based on what the trainer is saying.

Well we can all interpret things differently, and maybe there’s an element of what we want and bets placed.
I actually said after his Haydock nov hurdle run he looked like further than 2 m would suit him better.
Trainer obviously feels now he would as well.
I do think there’s a case of him winning the TC and then going on to win other big 2 m races here like the Clarence House, and staying at 2 m for Cheltenham, and I hope that’s the case. I think he can jump better than he did in the Arkle and would love to see him take on EF again.
Maybe he will go Ryanair and we have another shite QM.
Maybe as the season unfolds it becomes clear we have a clash to look forward to in the QM.
Anyway lots to happen yet this season.

 

[charlie]

Well we can all interpret things differently, and maybe there’s an element of what we want and bets placed.
I actually said after his Haydock nov hurdle run he looked like further than 2 m would suit him better.
Trainer obviously feels now he would as well.
I do think there’s a case of him winning the TC and then going on to win other big 2 m races here like the Clarence House, and staying at 2 m for Cheltenham, and I hope that’s the case. I think he can jump better than he did in the Arkle and would love to see him take on EF again.
Maybe he will go Ryanair and we have another shite QM.
Maybe as the season unfolds it becomes clear we have a clash to look forward to in the QM.
Anyway lots to happen yet this season.

Absolutely. It's a tough gig interpreting trainer comments but it's important to include the original comment/quotes because what a trainer actually says is almost always more valuable than our interpretations of it.

I remember now - you were vehemently in camp Jonbon vs EF all season, must have been a rough Arkle :boxing::highly_amused:

Based on what Nicky has been saying all summer and last week, they think Jonbon wants further and reading between the lines, could be a potential gold cup horse. If thats the case they'll plan his career trajectory accordingly. Taking in the TC and CH over 2m vs the dross we have here doesn't mean they'll be in a rush to take on EF, why would they, he's a better animal and Nicky likes the easier option always. Thats not to say he couldn't go QMCC then GC next year, a move made more recently by Sizing John, but, Henderson wants winners and if this race looks there for the taking with Jonbon he'll snatch it, but I'd have Jonbons participation here at 50/50 based entirely on EF's wellbeing. The doubles are getting taken.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Hahaha, yes it was a rough Arkle for me.
I have been putting little offer bets on Jonbon and have accumulated a nice pay out should he win the QM.
Im convinced he’s better than his Arkle run and have acted on that, so would be a huge disappointment for him not to run.
However I do recognise that EF is in front of him, but however good EF proves to be this season ,he is only one horse,plus right now I do not know how either will perform this season.
If Jonbon goes Ryanair then that proves I’m wrong, as no way would they do that if they thought they could win the QM.
Not the first time I would have to take it on the chin, and no doubt not the last either!!

 

[Exar Essay]

In case others haven't seen what Nicky said his exact words were:

'I'll be amazed if that at some stage we don't look at 2 and half miles but at the moment we'll probably start in the Tingle Creek'.

So Nicky is saying it's highly likely he'll step up and probably go TC, which you've taken as he's definitely going TC and will stay at 2m? What does winning the TC even mean vs the dross we have here? Jonbons participation here hangs in the balance and depends entirely now on El Fabiolo, who looks fundamentally the much better animal.

There is more meat on the bone re Jonbon going up and not just the interview last week. Last month Nicky said:

'I think all of us put our heads together and thought well he just needs two and half now, he's by Walk In The Park, won his PTP, and looks as if he needed further so the idea was to go to Aintree over two and half but when we did the entries it was entries it was blatantly obvious that the 2m novice chase was far easier than the two and half mile novice chase'

He will probably start over 2m because the TC is a winnable valuable G1, but it's impossible to conclude he will remain at 2m based on what the trainer is saying.

Just so we've the full set, he also said this in his ATR stable tour:

"I was considering stepping up to two and a half miles, but Sandown probably told us to stay at two miles for now. He has developed both physically and mentally and let’s hope he has a very bright future."

That implies more heavily that he'll be kept at 2m for a prolonged period. Still not concrete, but on that quote alone, you'd be thinking QMCC.

All quotes we have were pre Energumene news too. Factoring that in, if Jonbon is unbeaten come March, I would be quite surprised if he didn't take up a rematch with El Fab.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Maybe we're all guilty of placing too much stock in what comes from Hendo's mouth.
Remember this time last year he had four potential Supreme winners he was about to 'let loose'....

 

[Benjy23]

I think Jonbon only goes here if El Fab looks v strong for CC

So best way to cover this is prob a double at 15-1ish

Agree with this being the sensible way to play it.

Quite like a few outsiders in the Ryanair at the moment; Bronn, Saint Sam and Saint Roi... But Jonbon coming here would mix things up a bit too much for my liking.

 

[Runragged]

I will throw Blue Lord in as another big priced potential for the Ryanair. Unlikely to go CC as under the same trainer/owner as El Fabiolo so I see a campaign geared entirely towards the Ryanair, starting out with the Clonmel Oil he won last year. Didn't seem right when turned over in the Dublin Chase and then well beat in the Ryanair, those runs can be excused. Bit more like it when not disgraced behind Energumene and Chacun Pour Soi over 2m in the Champion Chase at Punchestown, beaten just 4 lengths, keeping on well but not having the speed of his two rivals. With another good campaign and the race likely to cut up then it would be no surprise to see him starting somewhere close to the 11/2 he did last year despite the poor prep.

Don't see him being a 'fashionable' horse so in no great shakes to back him yet even prior to the stable tour considering the yard has Allaho. I'm happy to wait until plans are more definite and an entry or stable tour confirmation that Clonmel Oil is the target. The 40/1 available for him is certainly on my radar.

 

[Captain Chris]

I will throw Blue Lord in as another big priced potential for the Ryanair.

Likely runner but I don't think he stays. I made a note after his Arkle that he weakened up the hill that day so it was no surprise to see him struggle in the Ryanair. I find the middle distance races so hard to back antepost as horses fall into them at the last minute

 

[Runragged]

Likely runner but I don't think he stays. I made a note after his Arkle that he weakened up the hill that day so it was no surprise to see him struggle in the Ryanair. I find the middle distance races so hard to back antepost as horses fall into them at the last minute

Yes, he does still have his stamina to confirm. The Ryanair is no guide though as he clearly wasn't right the way he dropped out so quickly and Townsend said after the race he was never travelling, so to me it is still inconclusive. He will be campaigned with the Ryanair in mind this year and so look to improve his stamina. It's a weak division at the moment and he is a multiple grade 1 winner who is unlikely to take on his stablemate over 2m. He is worth another chance.

 

[The Giant Bolster]

Maybe we're all guilty of placing too much stock in what comes from Hendo's mouth.
Remember this time last year he had four potential Supreme winners he was about to 'let loose'....

Absolutely this. He thinks out loud - ultimately I don't listen to his quotes too much. What he is though is a trainer who does not like to mess with a winning formula. I could be wrong but I don't see Jonbon stepping up unless he is beaten over 2m.

 

[archie]

You have to factor in the owner. When it's JP, the trainer/owner dynamic is completely different. Nicky will pay due attention to what Frank Berry says so Jonbon will probably end up in the Grand Annual off 140.

 

[Ray]

I think at this moment in time, bronn is a better shout for the ryanair then blue lord is, bronn jumped and travelled really well in the BANC almost looking like a winner, come back to 2.4 and he could run a big race jumping like that!

 

[Spectre]

I think at this moment in time, bronn is a better shout for the ryanair then blue lord is, bronn jumped and travelled really well in the BANC almost looking like a winner, come back to 2.4 and he could run a big race jumping like that!

100% agree. Bronn is overlooked, and a very good bet for the Ryanair. Anyone who makes a book has to have him onside. As does anyone who plays antepost each way. If it's one dart for a win, perhaps you'd be backing elsewhere though depending on your thoughts on him. i also think Saint Roi will come here, and he's JP's horse for this and not Jonbon. I think he's the type that will benefit for a step up in trip. In the top end 2 mile chases he just falls short, and on breeding you'd think a step up in trip is coming sooner rather than later.

 

[Eggs]

I think at this moment in time, bronn is a better shout for the ryanair then blue lord is, bronn jumped and travelled really well in the BANC almost looking like a winner, come back to 2.4 and he could run a big race jumping like that!

….Bronn reminds me a little of Real Steel. Cruising 2 out in the GC and looking all over the winner before running out of steam for Paul Nicholls. FJs were all over him for mid-distance races the next season but he largely drifted into oblivion before turning up at 33-1 to win that big Irish handicap last season.

 

[Fouroverthrutwo]

….Bronn reminds me a little of Real Steel. Cruising 2 out in the GC and looking all over the winner before running out of steam for Paul Nicholls. FJs were all over him for mid-distance races the next season but he largely drifted into oblivion before turning up at 33-1 to win that big Irish handicap last season.

Declared for The Munster National on Sunday.

 

[Hardy Eustace]

The way jonbon ran from 2 out to the line in the arkle in isolation makes it look crazy to think he’ll run in the champion. He hangs then gets completely outpaced by el fab.


It’s fair to say he was not at his best there, he didn’t jump with his usually fluency so connections were quite right to keep him at 2 miles after which obviously paid off and they’re also right to do so this season especially as there’s nothing this side of the sea and el fab to me has a bit of Moscow flyer about him all class but not the most natural of jumpers. Anything can happen in 2 mile chases.

in Howard’s book king talks about stepping edwardstone up in trip this season so if/when jonbon beats him (you have to think they are likely to meet at some point) he’ll be a value pick in an open looking Ryanair.​

This year it will pay to keep an open mind in this race, as the betting suggests, 365 pushed the reigning champ out to 20s today.

Edwardstone is also 20s and worth monitoring.