2024 Cheltenham - the odds on offer.

[Carnage at Taunton]

You’ll find no argument from me in terms of what I’d like them to do. But I think Nicky will keep him in novice company.

Yep, would be most unlikely and most unlike Nicky to not go the novice route with any horse, let alone one like this one.
He won’t take any unnecessary risk with CH imo.
If he takes to fences he will almost certainly go Arkle and then QM or Gold Cup, depending on his stamina, which of course will be unproven for a while yet.

 

[Eggs]

…PP offer Constitution Hill to win the CH;

& any Novice Chase @ 6-1
& Arkle & 9-1

 

[Quevega]

The 20-1 2024 Champion Chase is the bet I reckon.
Jonbon hasn't won his arkle yet.
And even if he did - would have to get there.

C Hill could easily go novice route until Game Spirit then Queen Mother.
For him to stay in novice company would be a disaster.
Only way I'd accept it is if Jonbon was awesome.

I'm not sure Buckley would wear it either.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

The 20-1 2024 Champion Chase is the bet I reckon.
Jonbon hasn't won his arkle yet.
And even if he did - would have to get there.

C Hill could easily go novice route until Game Spirit then Queen Mother.
For him to stay in novice company would be a disaster.
Only way I'd accept it is if Jonbon was awesome.

I'm not sure Buckley would wear it either.

Buckley leaves it to Nicky.
I can see the temptation of 20/1 for some, but just don’t think it will happen.
Would not mind being proven wrong though .

 

[DenmanSacre]

Buckley sounds like he wants to prove how great the horse is.

Would people's opinion change on the Arkle if it meant he had a clash with Facile Vega (assuming he wins the Supreme well)?

It could be their only chance at racing one another unless both go to the Gold Cup the next year. We already know he's better than Jonbon, DD etc and beating them in the Champion Chase next year wouldn't add much unless Energumene proves he's still the best 2 miler this year and continues in that form next season).

 

[Lobos]

The 20-1 2024 Champion Chase is the bet I reckon.
Jonbon hasn't won his arkle yet.
And even if he did - would have to get there.

C Hill could easily go novice route until Game Spirit then Queen Mother.
For him to stay in novice company would be a disaster.
Only way I'd accept it is if Jonbon was awesome.

I'm not sure Buckley would wear it either.

Would put him on another planet..... Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase,Gold Cup.

Just hope Buckley's not tempting fate.

Get this year's race won first !!

 

[Eggs]

…It’s for Me CB & a/r 20-1 (from 66-1) with PP

Edit; now 11-1.

 

[Eggs]

….PP;

Its for Me 10-1 Sup; 10-1 Bally; win CB & a/r 11-1 (from 66-1)
Spanish Harlem win a/r & BANC 50-1

 

[HesTheOne]

….PP;

Its for Me 10-1 Sup; 10-1 Bally; win CB & a/r 11-1 (from 66-1)
Spanish Harlem win a/r & BANC 50-1

Ouuch the It’s For Me ones are criminal..!

out of interest when do the 2024 markets fully open up where they can be used as roll ups, doubles etc

Assume it’s a week or 2 before the fest?

 

[Bollinger]

Arkle then Gold Cup 2025. Proven route.

Just let him win the Champion Hurdle first. Let's not jinx it.

I admire your enthusiasm Mr L, but if I may temper it just a tiny bit, and without wishing to sound controversial, may I ask what you mean by ‘Arkle…….then Gold Cup…..proven route’??

I’m not going to do too much homework on this, and maybe someone is generous enough with their time to do so, but the % of horses that run in an Arkle that contest a Gold Cup within 2 years are extremely rare??

Horses that perform exceptionally well in an Arkle are genuine 2 mile career chasers, horses that don’t perform in an Arkle mostly never get seen near a Gold Cup anyway?

Agreed, Constitution Hill may well be that horse who swallows that stat right up, but Arkle followed by a Gold Cup, in the recent memory of the last decade I would suggest is not a’proven route’ for hardly any aspiring Golf Cup winners.

 

[Lobos]

I admire your enthusiasm Mr L, but if I may temper it just a tiny bit, and without wishing to sound controversial, may I ask what you mean by ‘Arkle…….then Gold Cup…..proven route’??

I’m not going to do too much homework on this, and maybe someone is generous enough with their time to do so, but the % of horses that run in an Arkle that contest a Gold Cup within 2 years are extremely rare??

Horses that perform exceptionally well in an Arkle are genuine 2 mile career chasers, horses that don’t perform in an Arkle mostly never get seen near a Gold Cup anyway?

Agreed, Constitution Hill may well be that horse who swallows that stat right up, but Arkle followed by a Gold Cup, in the recent memory of the last decade I would suggest is not a’proven route’ for hardly any aspiring Golf Cup winners.

Best Mate , Kicking King, War of Attrition, Sizing John....

 

[DenmanSacre]

I admire your enthusiasm Mr L, but if I may temper it just a tiny bit, and without wishing to sound controversial, may I ask what you mean by ‘Arkle…….then Gold Cup…..proven route’??

I’m not going to do too much homework on this, and maybe someone is generous enough with their time to do so, but the % of horses that run in an Arkle that contest a Gold Cup within 2 years are extremely rare??

Horses that perform exceptionally well in an Arkle are genuine 2 mile career chasers, horses that don’t perform in an Arkle mostly never get seen near a Gold Cup anyway?

Agreed, Constitution Hill may well be that horse who swallows that stat right up, but Arkle followed by a Gold Cup, in the recent memory of the last decade I would suggest is not a’proven route’ for hardly any aspiring Golf Cup winners.

Sizing John was in the last decade.

Decade before that:

Best Mate (favourite I believe before the festival was abandoned so not sure if we should include?)
Kicking King War of Attrition

3 in a row.

All ran in the Arkle season before winning the Gold Cup. Sadly don't see it as often now.

Not sure if others have ran in the Arkle and then placed in the Gold Cup over the last 10-20 years.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Sizing John was in the last decade.

Decade before that:

Best Mate (favourite I believe before the festival was abandoned so not sure if we should include?)
Kicking King War of Attrition

3 in a row.

All ran in the Arkle season before winning the Gold Cup. Sadly don't see it as often now.

Not sure if others have ran in the Arkle and then placed in the Gold Cup over the last 10-20 years.

Yep, It’s still a proven route as it’s happened a few times.
Not recently though but it does prove it can be done with a certain horse.

 

[Quevega]

Obviously the turners got introduced
I think you can put Kauto Star in the list though

 

[AaronLad]

Obviously the turners got introduced
I think you can put Kauto Star in the list though

I thought about Kauto, but strictly speaking his route was qmcc 06 then gold cup 07

 

[Bollinger]

Good stats there Denman, thanks. Obviously Best Mate, Kicking King & War of Attrition were the ones generally known by most punters. It’s just not a theme of the last decade with the advent of a 4 day festival and spread of races.
Yes, a ‘proven route’ for a very few select horses, but I’d say for every horse that go’s to a Gold Cup the year after his or her Arkle (or is being considered, important to note), then 5 will be following up down the Championship Chase route.
And noting those ‘good enough’ to be considered grade 1 horses too.

 

[Quevega]

The Champion hurdle - Gold cup route isn't really a thing anyway, full stop, whichever race comes in between.
Only been done once.

 

[Lobos]

The Champion hurdle - Gold cup route isn't really a thing anyway, full stop, whichever race comes in between.
Only been done once.

Exactly this. Just proves how difficult it must be. Hopefully CH can do it and etch his name in the history books. Love him to go for the Champion Chase next year and Gold Cup afterwards. Now that would be just out of this world.

 

[Morley Street]

The Champion hurdle - Gold cup route isn't really a thing anyway, full stop, whichever race comes in between.
Only been done once.

If they are serious about winning a Gold Cup then I would be surprised if, bearing in mind Hendo’s risk adversity and amount of likely runs next season, that he wouldn’t take in a full season of novice chasing. He is young enough after all and throwing him straight in a Champion Chase, no matter how much we all want to see it, might end up ruining him. The Arkle / Gold Cup route was more popular before the establishment of the mid-trip novice chase… my guess would be the Turners and I think the special bet of 6s to win the CHurdle and any novice chase is decent in todays crazy markets.

 

[Quevega]

If they are serious about winning a Gold Cup then I would be surprised if, bearing in mind Hendo’s risk adversity and amount of likely runs next season, that he wouldn’t take in a full season of novice chasing. He is young enough after all and throwing him straight in a Champion Chase, no matter how much we all want to see it, might end up ruining him. The Arkle / Gold Cup route was more popular before the establishment of the mid-trip novice chase… my guess would be the Turners and I think the special bet of 6s to win the CHurdle and any novice chase is decent in todays crazy markets.

Not sure on the ruining him aspect.
Be dreadful for the sport if he goes the boring route IMO.

There's far too much uncompetitive racing all year round without the festival being the same and we're getting to that stage now.
The bet makes sense though as it is most likely, but would be even better if it was any chase. just in case.

People need to remember though that we don't get many Champion hurdlers go chasing the next season.
The clamour for him to move out of novice company by Spring will be more than ever.
Especially if he looks awesome over a fence.

Rock on Ruby probably the last one I can recall and he looked awkward/shit jumping over a fence and wasn't anywhere near a 175-180 rated hurdler.