2024 Cheltenham - the odds on offer.

[Exar Essay]

Her best runs last season in Ireland came at Cork (including the 2nd to Impervious) & Fairyhouse both predominantly flat non stamina testing tracks, she didn’t appear to appreciate the stiff finishes at Naas & to a lesser extent Cheltenham.

Understand you’re thoughts re: breeding but it’s a firm no from me.

Opinions innit (unless Paddy Power stop us taking them!). I agree with her best performances to date but liked what I saw at Cheltenham (bar taking the second last with her). I think they’ll race her differently this year. Year before she ran very well in a complete bog of a race hitting the line hard with others miles back. I forget where.

 

[Lobos]

She was also cruising all over them in the MNH but faltered up the hill. Hurdles I know but still a slight Q mark.

 

[BookieBasher]

If Willie thinks she’ll get the trip over fences and targets the Mares Chase, then that’s good enough for me to back her antepost

 

[SeanRock]

If Willie thinks she’ll get the trip over fences and targets the Mares Chase, then that’s good enough for me to back her antepost

Has he been quoted as targeting her for the race? All I could recall from the top of my head was the following Cheltenham stable tour comments from early March.

DINOBLUE

She’s in the mares’ chase and a few handicaps and we’ll see what the English handicapper thinks of her. It will be hard to see her winning a mares’ chase but we’ll have a look at her mark and maybe have a crack at a handicap
​

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Has he been quoted as targeting her for the race? All I could recall from the top of my head was the following Cheltenham stable tour comments from early March.

DINOBLUE

She’s in the mares’ chase and a few handicaps and we’ll see what the English handicapper thinks of her. It will be hard to see her winning a mares’ chase but we’ll have a look at her mark and maybe have a crack at a handicap
​

Dinoblue has the second highest Chase official rating in Ireland, for any Mare, and at OR 155 (+7lb when taking on the boys) hopefully she should be a hot property in any Chase she runs in next season.

Already 15lb higher than when running in the Grand Annual.

Impervious is the one ahead of her, at 158 OR.

The rest are 4lb or a lot more, behind her.

ADV 151
Maskada 151
Jeremys Flame 150

Nothing else above 146.

So on that basis she
* should be clear 2nd Fav for the Mares Chase, a.t.m., and
* Willies current no1 for the race.

Whether Willie has that plan or not, should be much clearer in the next few weeks, when info is shared with the gen-pop.

Personally, I’d think that the Mares Chase would be a key thought for her, until the trip is shown to be fine (or not) and I will be interested in how they map out her early campaign.

I don’t see her headed purely down a 2M Grade 1 Chase programme (though stranger things have happened).

As she’s not a Novice, then Willie is usually happier to get going earlier (if the horse is ready, and a race is there for them), and doesn’t feel the need to mind them too much pre-Christmas.

The HRI have advised me that this week should see them publish their full Race by Race calendar from 1st October to 31st December.

Cant wait to see that, for many reasons, and I will be looking at early season Mares races and their trips.

I understand her going just 2M last year

Willie commented on Facile Vega, and in general,
…….he will start at 2M and will stay there until he tells us he wants further.
He could go 3M, but it’s easier on horses to run in 2M races, than longer ones.
​​​​​​…… they stay fresher.

I can see those same thoughts for Dinoblue as well as several he campaigned over the Arkle trip throughout last season, as novices, las year.

This season some of those may step up in trip too, in their second season chasing.

 

[SeanRock]

She has the second highest Chase official rating in Ireland, for Mares, and at 155 (+7lb when taking on the boys) hopefully she should be a hot property in any Chase she runs in next season.

Already 15lb higher than when running in the Grand Annual.

Impervious is the one ahead of her, at 158 OR.

The rest are 4lb or a lot more, behind her.

ADV 151
Maskada 151
Jeremys Flame 150

Nothing else above 146.

So on that basis she should be clear 2nd Fav for the Mares Chase, a.t.m., and Willies no1 for the race.

Whether Willie had that plan or not, should be much clearer in the next few weeks, when info is shared with the gen-pop.

Personally, I’d think that the Mares Chase would be a key thought for her, and will be interested in how they map out her early campaign.

As she’s not a Novice, then Willie is usually happier to get going earlier (if the horse is ready, and a race is there for them), and doesn’t feel the need to mind them too much pre-Christmas,

I’m not dismissing her ability at all Sax, stating the obvious here but that rating was achieved exclusively over 2m. The Mares division is getting deeper by the year & I just don’t see her crying out for further let alone the new course around Cheltenham.

Most of the graded open chases in Ireland that will likely be on the agenda for her are over the middle distance so we’ll likely find out her appetite for further sooner rather than later!

 

[SeanRock]

Just to expand a little, of last year’s novices I can see Magical Zoe, You Wear It Well, Hauturiere & possibly even Jetara stepping up if going chasing next year. The mare’s program is starting to bear fruit thankfully…

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I’m not dismissing her ability at all Sax, stating the obvious here but that rating was achieved exclusively over 2m. The Mares division is getting deeper by the year & I just don’t see her crying out for further let alone the new course around Cheltenham.

Most of the graded open chases in Ireland that will likely be on the agenda for her are over the middle distance so we’ll likely find out her appetite for further sooner rather than later!

Yeah, it will be great, finding out.

……and Dinoblue won’t carry a penalty for a Graded race win, where ADV would probably be carrying one for a Grade 2 win

 

[Odin]

Breeding suggests it should be no issue. Doctor Dinos tend to get 2 and a half and being out of an Astarabad mare suggests age stood stay that’ll far. On breeding along she looks like a 2 and a half should be ideal.

I don't see this breeding angle - am I being thick?

Doctor Dino best progeny: State Man (2m), Sharjah (2m, maybe 2.5m now at age 10), Sceau Royal (2m), Master Dino (2.25m, but seems likely to have got 2.5m), Dinoblue (2m), La Bague Au Roi (3m, but dam sire Turgeon a proper stamina influence - Allaho, Asterion Forlonge, as well as Politologue and The New One), Fil Dor (2m), Gin On Lime (2.5m).

I look at the above and see a definite preference for 2m for Doctor Dino progeny in his best horses - doesn't mean they can't get 2.5m but they are definitely best at 2m

Astarabad best damsire horses: Lisnagar Oscar (3m, by Oscar), Dinoblue (2m, by DD), Blue Sari (2.5m, by Saddex), El Presente (3m, by Presenting), Kateira (2.5m, by Kayf Tara) there are others, I just don't know the horses so have used the best horses I know

Looking at Astarabad, I'm unconvinced that he brings the stamina to his progeny as a damsire. Obviously it's a small sample, but I'm not convinced he brings more stamina to horses than Oscar, Presenting or Kayf Tara. It's probable he gave the stamina to Blue Sari given Saddex' other progeny (Editeur Du Gite and Haddex Des Obeaux 2 milers, Eklat De Rire 3 miler but by Video Rock, stamina influence from VR rather than Saddex I suspect) but on balance I remain unconvinced.

Add to this that Dinoblue has generally been a keen going sort it strikes me that 2m (for now) is best for her. Am I missing something or reading the pedigree wrong?

 

[Exar Essay]

Odin Very fair points, and I'd certainly not suggest you being thick! However, I would add that State Man, Sharjah and to a lesser extent Sceau Royal have all successfully gotten 2.5 miles, despite their greater successes having come at 2.

The Astarabad angle is interesting. As you say a small sample size and influence from the Sire side has obviously influenced staying ability of said horses.

Being kept to 2 miles last year doesn't worry me personally. As Willie has said for FV, keeping a horse sound at 2m is an easier job and last year, she was able to be campaigned with a 2 mile handicap in mind. There was no need to step her up - Willie had a big ol' dart for that anyway. This year, the options are considerably less. Given she is rated 155; handicap chases are out. And it's very unlikely she is Champion Chase quality. Willie has also sent horses to the races that are easiest to win. Presently, I think that looks like a mares chase campaign, especially if (a big if) Impervious takes on the boys.

The other thing to factor in is her performance over 2m4f at Fairyhouse at the back end of her novice hurdle campaign. Finishing 4th, she seemed to be doing her best work at the line. It wasn't her staying ability that got her beat that day.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Personally Ive sometimes found it easy-ish for me to read NH pedigrees in the ways I/we want them to be read.

Probably me seeking confirmation-bias :hopelessness:
Though, I hope I'm quick to recognise when I do that

I'm not big on carving 2M vs 2M4F pedigrees very often.

More focused on

2M-2M4F ones
c/w
2M4F-3M+ ones

Helps me to decide what's probably a stayer or a speedier NH pedigree - for potential race target options.

ie:
Arkle-Turners
Or
Turners-BANC

Or even
BANC-NHC

Beyond that it's then out of our hands as the trainers will run them where they want to.

I wouldn't get too hung up on whether Dinoblue is only a 2M horse, and without capability of performing equally well at 2M4F this time round.

It's personal choice, and opinion, until we see her try it.

I don't think she has a nailed on 2M antepost target at present, so I haven't got her in mind for one just yet.

Would be interested if she ran against the boys first up over 2M though, and got a 7lb allowance.

There's a clear antepost race for her over 2M4F.
Doesn't mean she will 100% go there.

But it does give the trainer a long range target at that trip - if he wants one.
He may do, he may not.

So its been a call as to whether to back her from April til now, for that long range 2M4F race or not.

33/1 was a mad price, and she lingered long at it, as well as 20/1 too.

Now her price should be 2nd fav for the race, and it more or less is.

Doesnt mean a thing unless the trainer decides that is
Plan A,
or
Plan B
(if the 2M Grade 1 races are Plan A, and shes beaten in them, maybe by her stablemates).

Not seeking to use anything I say to affect anyone else's thinking, just happy to share views.

Everyone's own personal view can be the best voice we get to listen to, on many occasions - but not 100% of course.

I do like to listen to others views, all the time, it helps me form better judgement calls.

FJ is so good at providing food for thought.

Thank you everyone for continuing to share those thoughts. :smile-new:

 

[Odin]

Yeah get what you're both saying and she's clearly one of the classier mares in the race so if she goes that way (and Impervious doesn't) she definitely has a chance if she stays. Interestingly, in the models I did a year or so ago, which accounted for the damsire's preferences, I actually have Doctor Dino as being 7.5lbs better at mid distance than short distances so who the hell knows what's going on with my thought processes/information!

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Yeah get what you're both saying and she's clearly one of the classier mares in the race so if she goes that way (and Impervious doesn't) she definitely has a chance if she stays. Interestingly, in the models I did a year or so ago, which accounted for the damsire's preferences, I actually have Doctor Dino as being 7.5lbs better at mid distance than short distances so who the hell knows what's going on with my thought processes/information!

Like it Odin
I thought he was a midtrip sire, mostly.
But wouldn't be cast iron (no breeding is, of course)

I'm eager to hear Willie's plans for her.

 

[Eggs]

….Qualimita into 16-1 from 25-1 CB with Hills but remains 12-1 in their any race market. (She’s 14-1 MNH).

(note; Hills double boost currently available takes Qualimita to 24-1 any race).

 

[SeanRock]

Down Memory Lane has gotten a hefty cut with PP for the Ballymore, 25/1 into 16/1, relived I nabbed the price this morning!

 

[Big Bucks]

Down Memory Lane has gotten a hefty cut with PP for the Ballymore, 25/1 into 16/1, relived I nabbed the price this morning!

I'd be fairly confident it was us fat Jockeys who made the move, I'm not a big hitter, but I also put a point on, and I'm sure a few more did too from the discussion on here. Likely doesn't take much to move it either, but enough from us moved the market.

 

[somer1]

Down Memory Lane has gotten a hefty cut with PP for the Ballymore, 25/1 into 16/1, relived I nabbed the price this morning!

Still 25s with WH that boosts to 27s

 

[Eggs]

….Salvator Mundi is a best price 16-1 TH with Hills but remains 15-1 (with boost) in their any race market.

 

[Nevertoolate]

I feel allegorie de vassy is being slightly overlooked in the mares Chase. Went down by 2 lengths last year to an excellent mare who a lot think had a great chance in the ryanair next year pre injury. She actually headed impervious jumping the last before being tapped for toe up the hill. She had a tough end to last year but I’d factor in the Cheltenham left it’s mark on her. She also still has age on her side going into next year. Would be nice to hear thoughts on her

 

[SeanRock]

I feel allegorie de vassy is being slightly overlooked in the mares Chase. Went down by 2 lengths last year to an excellent mare who a lot think had a great chance in the ryanair next year pre injury. She actually headed impervious jumping the last before being tapped for toe up the hill. She had a tough end to last year but I’d factor in the Cheltenham left it’s mark on her. She also still has age on her side going into next year. Would be nice to hear thoughts on her

I agree entirely & feel her post Cheltenham performances have tempered the enthusiasm somewhat. Impervious is a tough mare & the match they had up the hill left ADV on fumes for the remainder of the season.

She’s a far better mare than Instit for example & with a more tailored prep program I can see her going one better next year IF Impervious’ conditioning suffers for her injury absence!