2024 Champion Chase

[Lobos]

Agree re comments that Jonbon could potentially end up in the Ryanair but he's no price for it. Should be a lot bigger especially as they are currently targeting the CC.

 

[Black Dog]

I'm not sure JP targets the Ryanair, and think if Jonbon ends up here it'll be a case of "falling"into it rather being a genuine target. JP has been represented in the race only 7 times in 16 runnings since it became a grade 1 with Uxizandre and Janadil running twice.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I'm not sure JP targets the Ryanair, and think if Jonbon ends up here it'll be a case of "falling"into it rather being a genuine target. .

That's fair, my comment was implying that JP would rather run the horse in a race he has a greater chance of winning...

 

[Black Dog]

I agree,but the target is surely the Champion Chase to start with.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Initially I had Impervious down at JP's Ryanair runner, a bit like Istabraq but there's no way she goes there now, even if she comes back before the festival. I think she'd end up in the Mares Chase, and I don't think they would have any issue going to the Mares Chase without a run either.

I'm not convinced JP necessarily targets the Ryanair, but I don't think he'd have any issue running a horse in the race with a big chance, as opposed to chasing home the same horse that he did last season.

JP has options though. Willie could turn around to Frank Berry and JP and say he could get Saint Roi to go close to placing in the Champion Chase, and with that, expecting the same result for Jonbon could move Jonbon out in trip. I'm just guessing here, of course. He also has Gentleman De Mee who could run into a place. The race ultimately looks like cutting up, and it won't take an awful lot to hit a place, IMO, so why waste Jonbon in doing so, who is ultimately the best of them 3 options.

 

[Lobos]

The Ryanair might not be as competitive as the Mares Chase so I could still see Impervious going Ryanair if she comes back.

 

[archie]

It's a bit of a pointless (though interesting) discussion because no Jonbon decision will be made until much closer to the time. If I were predicting where he would end up, I'd slightly favour the Ryanair but neither price is remotely attractive until NRNB.

I wouldn't say that Jonbon improved much after Cheltenham and he's always seemed a stayer to me anyway. Just my opinion but I don't think he has a scooby against a fit and firing El Fabiolo.

I agree with Isty that JP would rather win the Ryanair than place in the QMCC.

 

[Outlaw]

The Ryanair might not be as competitive as the Mares Chase so I could still see Impervious going Ryanair if she comes back.

:welcoming::welcoming: You're still going to get half a dozen horses 159+, your getting two max in the Mares best case scenario, how will it be more competitive ?

 

[Captain Chris]

That's fair, my comment was implying that JP would rather run the horse in a race he has a greater chance of winning...

He's probably the only person in racing where I'm not sure if that's true. I think he values the prestige and history of certain races and the 2nd best horse in the champion chase should be running in that rather than some tinpot race :tan:​​​​​​. Imagine if El Fab did a Douvan and you'd ducked it with Jonbon to go and take down the mighty French Dynamite and Hitman. No thank you!

 

[Spectre]

I'd be very surprised if Jonbon doesn't face off against El Fab in March. During any discussions they'll consider two things:

Firstly, the fragility of 2 mile chasers, and just how many top end horses don't actually make it to the Festival.

And secondly, why be afraid of one horse. We've seen so many top class two mile chasers make bad mistakes, fall, or just not perform on the day. The list is as long as your arm. If that happened and Jonbon was running elsewhere they'd be beside themselves. All of these things will be part of the decision making process, and while Jonbon runs and keeps winning at 2 miles they just won't step him up in trip. At least not until Aintree.

The only time to back him for the Ryanair is immediately after he gets beaten over two miles, otherwise it's a wasted bet in my opinion.

 

[Nwfb89]

Has j.p mcmanus ever had the winner of the champion chase before?

 

[Irish Rugby]

Has j.p mcmanus ever had the winner of the champion chase before?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Mother_Champion_Chase

Thought he hadn't and Wikipedia confirms it.

 

[Odin]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Mother_Champion_Chase

Thought he hadn't and Wikipedia confirms it.

Nor the Arkle right?

 

[Irish Rugby]

Nor the Arkle right?

Yes, to my knowledge, that's right. No Arkle either, and yes, you would think, he'd want to do so, but who knows? A question to ask him, but they only ever seem to get him for a quick quote as he's in the winners enclosure.

 

[jono]

I'd be adamant Jonbon will line up in this race come March. All things going well through the winter for him.
I don't think it's an absolute given that he lines up undefeated prior to the festival, there's some vulnerability there but it's very likely. And would be a shock if so, certainly given how he performed at Sandown in April.

And whilst I would certainly have El Fabiolo ahead of him.
I really don't buy them not wanting a rematch. One more time at least.
Connections felt we didn't quite see the best of Jonbon at Cheltenham.
Yes, it's over a different discipline and he had an experience advantage over El Fabiolo but I don't think it'll be lost that they did beat him at Aintree in their novice hurdle season too.

This race specifically is also full of examples where by favourites disappoint or don't line up in recent times.

 

[charlie]

I'd be adamant Jonbon will line up in this race come March. All things going well through the winter for him.
I don't think it's an absolute given that he lines up undefeated prior to the festival, there's some vulnerability there but it's very likely. And would be a shock if so, certainly given how he performed at Sandown in April.

And whilst I would certainly have El Fabiolo ahead of him.
I really don't buy them not wanting a rematch. One more time at least.
Connections felt we didn't quite see the best of Jonbon at Cheltenham.
Yes, it's over a different discipline and he had an experience advantage over El Fabiolo but I don't think it'll be lost that they did beat him at Aintree in their novice hurdle season too.

This race specifically is also full of examples where by favourites disappoint or don't line up in recent times.

Hmmm, interesting you're adamant Jonbon goes here but concede it's not a given he goes undefeated. I'd argue defeat over 2m means going up in trip is a near on certainty. I don't think that will happen but you have to question what beating (or losing!) to the dross we have here over 2m actually amounts to. Does it mean anything? What do we learn? Sandown was Jonbons standout performance, but the 'best of the British' were beaten out of site and Captain Guiness finished 3L back in 2nd. It was a solid performance, but does anyone think EF wouldn't have won that race by a much wider margin? Camp Jonbon must know by now they're dealing with a fundamentally superior animal in EF. You mention Aintree but EF came out the moral victor didn't he? Significantly less experience, hampered, mistake 2 out and still only lost a nose. Surely the Arkle left those in doubt in no doubt as EF was emphatically better, but I concede Jonbon didn't travel with his usual zest. Its entirely fair to suggest Jonbon could improve past EF in open company, but at 6 turning 7 (vs Jonbon who is 8 next year) I think it's fair to put forward that we could see more improvement from EF.

Look, you cant run scared of one horse and anything can happen. We learnt that this week with the QMCC winner being out for the season. If EF gets injured then Jonbon would probably win a QMCC and thats where he'll go, but for me the talk about going up in trip paves the way for Jonbon to end up in the Ryanair, which could look like the far more winnable race if EF stays fit. I dont want to come across as anti Jonbon and I have always said Jonbon is a very very good horse, but caveated that by saying I don't think he's a superstar. Every single time he runs I feel like he proves me right.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

I'd be adamant Jonbon will line up in this race come March. All things going well through the winter for him.
I don't think it's an absolute given that he lines up undefeated prior to the festival, there's some vulnerability there but it's very likely. And would be a shock if so, certainly given how he performed at Sandown in April.

And whilst I would certainly have El Fabiolo ahead of him.
I really don't buy them not wanting a rematch. One more time at least.
Connections felt we didn't quite see the best of Jonbon at Cheltenham.
Yes, it's over a different discipline and he had an experience advantage over El Fabiolo but I don't think it'll be lost that they did beat him at Aintree in their novice hurdle season too.

This race specifically is also full of examples where by favourites disappoint or don't line up in recent times.

Yep, I have no doubt that the Arkle was not Jonbon at his best, and his next two runs saw him jump better, particularly at Aintree.
The Sandown race he was up against seasoned 2 milers, so as a novice that has to go down as a good performance.
Lets hope that he at least gets the chance of a rematch with EF in the QM.
A good season for both going into Cheltenham would be great for the festival and for us on here!!

 

[Craigy14]

I almost feel sorry for Jonbon, because of all the idiots in the media hyping him with being Douvans brother. He was set up to fail straight away imo.

I was and still am a big fan of the horse, I think he’s class, maybe not top top class, but he’s still class. Aside from a slightly sketchy performance against Calico in his novice chase he’s been pretty much faultless. Didn’t seem to travel as well as normal, as people have suggested in the Arkle, maybe the ground as Hendo and Coleman seem to suggest good to soft/good ground he’ll be at his best. Maybe the soft ground of the Arkle wasn’t to his liking. No question El Fab was much better on the day. Do I think he’ll turn the tables, probably not, but he is well worth his shot.

People may knock what he did at Sandown because the UK 2m horses are crap but he beat them as easy as he liked, these were seasoned 2m chasers. I don’t think using a long season as an excuse for those he beat stands up as Jonbon was having his 6th start and he had only run 2 weeks earlier.

 

[jono]

Hmmm, interesting you're adamant Jonbon goes here but concede it's not a given he goes undefeated. I'd argue defeat over 2m means going up in trip is a near on certainty. I don't think that will happen but you have to question what beating (or losing!) to the dross we have here over 2m actually amounts to. Does it mean anything? What do we learn? Sandown was Jonbons standout performance, but the 'best of the British' were beaten out of site and Captain Guiness finished 3L back in 2nd. It was a solid performance, but does anyone think EF wouldn't have won that race by a much wider margin? Camp Jonbon must know by now they're dealing with a fundamentally superior animal in EF. You mention Aintree but EF came out the moral victor didn't he? Significantly less experience, hampered, mistake 2 out and still only lost a nose. Surely the Arkle left those in doubt in no doubt as EF was emphatically better, but I concede Jonbon didn't travel with his usual zest. Its entirely fair to suggest Jonbon could improve past EF in open company, but at 6 turning 7 (vs Jonbon who is 8 next year) I think it's fair to put forward that we could see more improvement from EF.

Look, you cant run scared of one horse and anything can happen. We learnt that this week with the QMCC winner being out for the season. If EF gets injured then Jonbon would probably win a QMCC and thats where he'll go, but for me the talk about going up in trip paves the way for Jonbon to end up in the Ryanair, which could look like the far more winnable race if EF stays fit. I dont want to come across as anti Jonbon and I have always said Jonbon is a very very good horse, but caveated that by saying I don't think he's a superstar. Every single time he runs I feel like he proves me right.

I think there's an assumption that any lose will result in him going for the Ryanair.
It more than likely brings it closer to happening.
But I don't think the two are conclusively linked. All about context.
We know Jonbon isn't an absolute superstar. And in the past 2 seasons he's had a relatively workmanlike (at best) performance in his race prior to the Supreme / Arkle - at Haydock and Warwick. Now both times could have been partly down to Nicky going easy on him and leaving him short. But i'm not sure he can afford that this season. In open 2 mile races. Something like that could happen again.

I'm adamant (or as much as you can be in this game!) he goes for the Champion Chase.
I wouldn't have complete confidence that he goes there with form of 111 to his name.

Obviously if he's outpaced or the performance just screams stepping up, I don't think they'll hold back.
But right now, however highly you rate it - he's beaten the Champion Chase runner up, in novice company.
He probably doesn't need to improve on his current level to win the grade one trials this season.
And there's enough history between him and the fav to think, for me that a defeat (in certain circumstances) along the way doesn't mean they change targets from here.

 

[charlie]

I think there's an assumption that any lose will result in him going for the Ryanair.
It more than likely brings it closer to happening.
But I don't think the two are conclusively linked. All about context.
We know Jonbon isn't an absolute superstar. And in the past 2 seasons he's had a relatively workmanlike (at best) performance in his race prior to the Supreme / Arkle - at Haydock and Warwick. Now both times could have been partly down to Nicky going easy on him and leaving him short. But i'm not sure he can afford that this season. In open 2 mile races. Something like that could happen again.

I'm adamant (or as much as you can be in this game!) he goes for the Champion Chase.
I wouldn't have complete confidence that he goes there with form of 111 to his name.

Obviously if he's outpaced or the performance just screams stepping up, I don't think they'll hold back.
But right now, however highly you rate it - he's beaten the Champion Chase runner up, in novice company.
He probably doesn't need to improve on his current level to win the grade one trials this season.
And there's enough history between him and the fav to think, for me that a defeat (in certain circumstances) along the way doesn't mean they change targets from here.

Very fair Jono, be interesting to see how it pans out. For the sake of the QMCC Jonbon lining up would make it a much better race. I have no doubt Jonbon will win weak renewals of the Tingle Creek and Clarence House - just thinking out loud, if that happens it will take Willie Mullins levels of confidence for Nicky to up him in trip and I'm not sure Nicky has the stones to deviate from 2m, even if all the evidence says go up.