2023 Novice Chasers

[FinalFurlong91]

Gold cup all day long.

At this stage I'd have gerri colombe as Gordon's main gold cup hope

 

[Sprinter Sacre]

167 RPR for El Fabiolo, 3 above Jonbon's best.

 

[Kevloaf]

167 RPR for El Fabiolo, 3 above Jonbon's best.

Will be interesting to see on here what the feeling is now about Jonbon and El Fabiolo.

I've very much got it in my head that 'the forum' strongly fancies Jonbon ....

 

[Sprinter Sacre]

Will be interesting to see on here what the feeling is now about Jonbon and El Fabiolo.

I've very much got it in my head that 'the forum' strongly fancies Jonbon ....

Yes it does feel that way (I was leaning towards El Fab even before seeing that RPR)

 

[Quevega]

Will be interesting to see on here what the feeling is now about Jonbon and El Fabiolo.

I've very much got it in my head that 'the forum' strongly fancies Jonbon ....

El Fabiolo coming out on top of the Mullins lot, is probably the one outcome that would keep Jonbon a shorter price.
I'd say El Fabiolo is a slightly better horse on form and exposure, but liable to make a mistake more than Jonbon on balance.
So it's a tough one to call.
If the market goes heavily one way, then I'll probably go the other.

 

[Dandrew99]

Will be interesting to see on here what the feeling is now about Jonbon and El Fabiolo.

I've very much got it in my head that 'the forum' strongly fancies Jonbon ....

Gun to head, it's El Fabiolo for me.

​​​​​Best form in the book by a mile, and I think he can improve further still. Probably should have beat Jonbon last year too. Really close though. Might be one for a poll... Maybe I should get everyone's opinions again :highly_amused:

 

[riccirich]

Will be interesting to see on here what the feeling is now about Jonbon and El Fabiolo.

I've very much got it in my head that 'the forum' strongly fancies Jonbon ....

I think el fab has the bigger engine, but Jonbon jumped best so far.

The way id see it is el fab can brush up his jumping easier than jonbon can run faster, so I’d just side with el fab but it’s tight.

 

[Outlaw]

El Fabiolo coming out on top of the Mullins lot, is probably the one outcome that would keep Jonbon a shorter price.
I'd say El Fabiolo is a slightly better horse on form and exposure, but liable to make a mistake more than Jonbon on balance.
So it's a tough one to call.
If the market goes heavily one way, then I'll probably go the other.

Jonbon is the safer horse with constant solid numbers and minimal mistakes plus the course exposure. El Fab is the more exiting horse with less experience and ridiculous engine. If you're chucking one in a placepot it would be Jonbon and if you were doing a horse to win by distance it would be El Fab.

 

[charlie]

Will be interesting to see on here what the feeling is now about Jonbon and El Fabiolo.

I've very much got it in my head that 'the forum' strongly fancies Jonbon ....

El Fabiolo > Jonbon

Easy.

 

[Benjy23]

Jonbon comfortably like. One of my biggest players of the week.

 

[Lobos]

Don't care. Dead heat will do. Fantastic race in prospect.

 

[Irish Rugby]

Fair play to the early birds here, such as Spectre etc. They had the Arkle late last Spring as predominantly a 2 horse race and the plan was to get both Jonbon and El Fabiolo onside early doors and at big prices. That's worked out 100% and a credit to them for sharing, and a good shout for FJ in general and the benefit it brings us all.

Now guys, and girls, who's going to be 3rd?

 

[darlojim]

Fair play to the early birds here, such as Spectre etc. They had the Arkle late last Spring as predominantly a 2 horse race and the plan was to get both Jonbon and El Fabiolo onside early doors and at big prices. That's worked out 100% and a credit to them for sharing, and a good shout for FJ in general and the benefit it brings us all.

Now guys, and girls, who's going to be 3rd?

El Fab, Jon and Dysart.. simple isn't it? :satellite:

 

[Kevloaf]

Fair play to the early birds here, such as Spectre etc. They had the Arkle late last Spring as predominantly a 2 horse race and the plan was to get both Jonbon and El Fabiolo onside early doors and at big prices. That's worked out 100% and a credit to them for sharing, and a good shout for FJ in general and the benefit it brings us all.

Now guys, and girls, who's going to be 3rd?

I'm just 'etc'.

You gave credit to FM for sorting your account the other day and that was me as well ..... I didn't say anything then cos I'm so humble :barbershop_quartet_member:


:very_drunk:

2 pts e/w on Lady Princess today in France, doubled with Jonbon (29/1) and El Fabiolo (44/1) in the Arkle

Would be nice to get them in the book as a starting point in what will inevitably be a full book in the race.

​Maybe it's cos I said I'd do the full book :bi_polo: :loyal:

 

[Odin]

Maybe it's cos I said I'd do the full book :bi_polo: :loyal:

At least you got your roll ups on - I've got 5 failed roll ups trying to get jonbon and el fabiolo on side (jonbon 7s and el fab 10s). Haters will say I should have just put the points on the singles. In this case, the haters would be right!

 

[Odin]

Mullins bingo is definitely a little clearer after that isn't it?

AI should go Turners, GDM should go NHC. Reckon Sir Gerhard joins AI in the Turners and JDB steps up for the BANC, maybe with Kilcruit. First time I've actually played Mullins bingo with some confidence.

Confused why that run means GDM goes NH chase? Wasn't knocked about when not in with a chance, which was to be expected given the ground and distance. I'm not saying he won't/shouldn't go NH chase, just don't see why today changes anything?

Fwiw, my thoughts would be:

Arkle: el fab, dysart dynamo
Turners: sir Gerhard, appreciate it (two horses mighty potter hasn't beaten so try and get him beat)
RSA: gdm (dependable at the distance if not spectacular), JDB (assuming all ok, may be helped by jumping at a slower pace)
NH chase: ramillies (beaten second favourite, admittedly questionable form given chemicals fitness; definitely wants more than 3m)

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Gun to head, it's El Fabiolo for me.

​​​​​Best form in the book by a mile, and I think he can improve further still. Probably should have beat Jonbon last year too. Really close though. Might be one for a poll... Maybe I should get everyone's opinions again :highly_amused:

Not sure looking at the form provides us much when comparing their chances to be honest, and i definitely would not take the Aintree race too literally.
EF has gone deeper now than J, giving him the best form, but J has not had that opportunity.
As re Aintree, one had a hard race at Cheltenham, the other did not. So theres an argument that J could have won easier without that scenario.
Anyway that was hurdles.
I would say thus far over fences, J has looked the more accomplished jumper and traveller, but yesterday showed us what an engine EF has.
Yes, it is a really close call.
Im just siding with Jonbon, but not by much.

 

[Dandrew99]

Not sure looking at the form provides us much when comparing their chances to be honest, and i definitely would not take the Aintree race too literally.
EF has gone deeper now than J, giving him the best form, but J has not had that opportunity.
As re Aintree, one had a hard race at Cheltenham, the other did not. So theres an argument that J could have won easier without that scenario.
Anyway that was hurdles.
I would say thus far over fences, J has looked the more accomplished jumper and traveller, but yesterday showed us what an engine EF has.
Yes, it is a really close call.
Im just siding with Jonbon, but not by much.

Yeah, no doubt it's close. When it's close I like to side with the horse that has beat the best horse/horses, which is clearly El Fabiolo. We know that when El Fabiolo is up against 155-160 horses, he's got enough to beat them (and pretty easily), whereas I think everything in the Irish Arkle would beat the likes of Monmiral and Boothill, so that's a question mark over Jonbon. Other people will go more for the visuals, which is a perfectly fine way to look at it too, and obviously Jonbon is the better jumper of a fence, albeit he has never really had to jump under any real pressure. I'd side with El Fabiolo in the travelling department though.

There's also the question of whether Cheltenham will light Jonbon up like it did last year, similarly for El Fabiolo who has no Cheltenham experience at all. Gunna be a cracking race!

 

[Exar Essay]

I see the RPR's are published for the Flogas. Mighty Potter gets a 161 with Adamantly chosen getting 149 in second. GDM 148 in third.

I must admit, I think that's harsh all round. That's AC's joint best RPR with his run at Limerick in Heavy over Christmas. Visually, he was much better yesterday and he'd have preferred the ground. GDM ran his race and it looked a similar effort to his Drinmore run. Mighty Potter looked far more authoritative yesterday too an yet scored 3pts lower than the Drinmore. I'd been expecting something closer to 165, maybe higher.

 

[Outlaw]

I see the RPR's are published for the Flogas. Mighty Potter gets a 161 with Adamantly chosen getting 149 in second. GDM 148 in third.

I must admit, I think that's harsh all round. That's AC's joint best RPR with his run at Limerick in Heavy over Christmas. Visually, he was much better yesterday and he'd have preferred the ground. GDM ran his race and it looked a similar effort to his Drinmore run. Mighty Potter looked far more authoritative yesterday too an yet scored 3pts lower than the Drinmore. I'd been expecting something closer to 165, maybe higher.

Get where your coming from especially with some of the ratings floated around.The runner up did surprisingly well the last day as agree had some useful numbers early season on good ground. Winner certainly earned his 160 rating now(thought the last day was a bit inflated personally), and a good half stone clear in this division with a couple of 2m sorts stepping up having to bridge that at present.

Anybody not see him a fair bit clear in this division out of curiosity?