• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2023 Novice Chasers

I see The Real Whacker is now as short as 8/1 for the BANC, which I think is ludicrous, and is the result of a fair amount of recency bias, not just bias from his win in the dipper, but the path L'Homme Presse took, however they are very different and LP was winning his races in a much more authoritative manner than The Real Whacker has done.

At the trip he's literally beat Indigo Breeze by 3/4 lengths. Indigo Breeze would be all but lapped in a BANC. It's truly mental how The Real Whacker is a general 10-12/1 shot for the race, IMO.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Silverbirch, JamieSensible, Faugheen_Machine and 1 other person
I was a big advocate of the novice threads being bound up like this and I think it's been a big success? Certainly I've found it's meant I haven't had to read the same thing 3 times
 
  • Like
Reactions: opatcho
Agreed COD its mental really, nice jumper but i will be stunned if the Irish big guns don’t get the 1-2 at least come the result, we are just awaiting as to what might go from Ireland and more performances from a Minella Cocooner or somebody.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I see The Real Whacker is now as short as 8/1 for the BANC, which I think is ludicrous, and is the result of a fair amount of recency bias, not just bias from his win in the dipper, but the path L'Homme Presse took, however they are very different and LP was winning his races in a much more authoritative manner than The Real Whacker has done.

At the trip he's literally beat Indigo Breeze by 3/4 lengths. Indigo Breeze would be all but lapped in a BANC. It's truly mental how The Real Whacker is a general 10-12/1 shot for the race, IMO.
Click to expand...

And his running style ... run like that in the BANC and see where you finish. Willie didn't even want GDC pressing on from the front over 3m. I took the 33s NRNB for the Turners as I think 2m3f really suits that front running, pressing on style, but am happy leaving him alone for the BANC.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nortonscoin200
ComplyOrDie said:
I see The Real Whacker is now as short as 8/1 for the BANC, which I think is ludicrous, and is the result of a fair amount of recency bias, not just bias from his win in the dipper, but the path L'Homme Presse took, however they are very different and LP was winning his races in a much more authoritative manner than The Real Whacker has done.

At the trip he's literally beat Indigo Breeze by 3/4 lengths. Indigo Breeze would be all but lapped in a BANC. It's truly mental how The Real Whacker is a general 10-12/1 shot for the race, IMO.
Click to expand...

Indigo Breeze has been campaigned for a spring handicap though, a typical Elliot move, so could easily be a 150 rate animal or better.
It's also worth remembering that L'homme presse started out in handicap chases rated 128 after hurdling. which is why he was also largely ignored after winning the dipper.

But I agree his price is short now, but he has been tipped up by some in the racing media.
including me on here at 25-1 NRNB. :highly_amused:
 
Quevega said:
Indigo Breeze has been campaigned for a spring handicap though, a typical Elliot move, so could easily be a 150 rate animal or better.
Click to expand...

I'd say that's an assumption, mostly because of his trainer.

He was a plot last season too, supposedly, but finished 25 lengths behind Commander Of Fleet, he could just be a dog.

Even if he is a plot should he have wanted to get so close to beating The Real Whacker then, yet still got within 3/4 length?

L'Homme Presse was battering his opposition too.

Fair play if you're on at 25's or bigger, possibly a bit of E/W value there, but anything shorter is poor in my opinion.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I'd say that's an assumption, mostly because of his trainer.

He was a plot last season too, supposedly, but finished 25 lengths behind Commander Of Fleet, he could just be a dog.

Even if he is a plot should he have wanted to get so close to beating The Real Whacker then, yet still got within 3/4 length?

L'Homme Presse was battering his opposition too.

Fair play if you're on at 25's or bigger, possibly a bit of E/W value there, but anything shorter is poor in my opinion.
Click to expand...

Could be a dog, of course.

I wouldn't judge many of Gordons handicap runners last year too harshly though, especially on that day.

Your comment about finishing close to The real whacker is silly if you think about it ? -
 
Anyway - The real whacker conversations should be in the Gold cup thread :highly_amused::highly_amused::triumphant::rolleyes:
 
  • Like
Reactions: opatcho
Quevega said:
Could be a dog, of course.

I wouldn't judge many of Gordons handicap runners last year too harshly though, especially on that day.

Your comment about finishing close to The real whacker is silly if you think about it ? -
Click to expand...

I don’t think he was putting it all in against TRW. The two horses that have finished second to him are both by getaway and they’re even worse.
 
It's worth considering for the Brown Advisory in particular the last 10 years winners and runners up.

Of the 10 winners 6 were trained by UK trainers. With second spot shared 50/50 UK v IRE.

Far from an Irish dominance as per other races.

Mullins has won twice, Henderson twice and Nichols once.
The other 5 winners can be classed as relatively small outfits, V Williams, J Culloty, R Curtis;), P Kelly & Twiston Davies.

It pays to row in with the Irish a lot of the time these days, but this is one of the races when you maybe have to consider other options, at the prices of course.
The Irish challenge certainly don't look scary this year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: robith and ComplyOrDie
Quevega said:
It's worth considering for the Brown Advisory in particular the last 10 years winners and runners up.

Of the 10 winners 6 were trained by UK trainers. With second spot shared 50/50 UK v IRE.

Far from an Irish dominance as per other races.

Mullins has won twice, Henderson twice and Nichols once.
The other 5 winners can be classed as relatively small outfits, V Williams, J Culloty, R Curtis;), P Kelly & Twiston Davies.

It pays to row in with the Irish a lot of the time these days, but this is one of the races when you maybe have to consider other options, at the prices of course.
The Irish challenge certainly don't look scary this year.
Click to expand...

So Thyme Hill or Ballygrifincottage then :devilish:
 
Alright lads? Back from a summer break. Had to point out that Paul T could well be riding top fancies in all the novice events - both hurdles and fences. While i rate him as the best at the minute and believe in his ability to cope with high pressure, it's a huge ask to expect him to win on all these young horses. That said, he could be lining up Facile Vega, Gaelic Warrior, Grangeclare Native, Dysart Dynamo, Appreciate It, Minella Cocooner just to mention my own fancies. Surely even Ruby never had such a plethora of talent to ride? Just goes to show the power of the Mullins yard. This is just the novices. Staggering to think how many career Festival winners he could end up with granted good health.
 
Mighty said:
Daryl Jacob on Road to Cheltenham tonight suggests Turners more likely than RSA for JDB:

https://twitter.com/racingtv/status/1611107326441799683?s=48&t=LjBjHPthhNXgWzAZ9lwTRg
Click to expand...

The way he went about his business and his jumping bar one or two I'd say Turners is the most likely.

He won't get away with being that exuberant over 3m at a stiff track like Cheltenham, IMO.

If he goes off like the clappers like he did on his chase debut it will put a lot of horses jumping under pressure too.

He's an exciting prospect that's for sure.
 
  • Like
Reactions: opatcho
I'd assume all 3 turn up to the Arkle.

I don't think Willie will be too scared of Mighty Potter - GDM got close enough and isn't a proper 2 and a half miler. JDB showed enough in debut to suggest he could beat him and he also has a few others that could turn up to the Turners.
 
Updated Timeform novice chaser ratings
NOVICE CHASERS

162p MIGHTY POTTER
161p JONBON
158 GAILLARD DU MESNIL
156p GERRI COLOMBE
155p DYSART DYNAMO
155p SAINT ROI
153p BANBRIDGE
153 THYME HILL
152p CLASSIC GETAWAY
152p EL FABIOLO
151p THE REAL WHACKER
151p TOMMY'S OSCAR
151 ADAMANTLY CHOSEN
151 BOOTHILL
150P APPRECIATE IT
150p GENTLEMANSGAME
150 AIN'T THAT A SHAME
150 VISIONARIAN
149p JOURNEY WITH ME
149p MINELLA COCOONER
 
All very tight between Mullins Arkle horses. Jonbon quite a way clear in their books though. Forgotten horse Banbridge right up there. He could still be a player back over 2 and back at Cheltenham where he pinged around the course. Potter top of the pops...... maybe he could still go Arkle?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom